Ranking the Regions

[JokersWild24]

With the draw show coming tomorrow at 1, I thought it may be fun to start some discussions on how the regions stack up before anyone could let the draw outcome bias their subjectivity.

 

Whatever measure you choose is fine, whether it be overall strength of the region, strongest possible contenders, or how you feel the two top teams from each would stack up against one another. This gives you some wiggle room on feeling like you'd called someone else's region out or jinxed your team/region.

[JokersWild24]

My Rankings:

 

Tier 1:

7th

 

Tier 2:

11th

10th

4th

2nd

6th

 

Tier 3:

9th

3rd

5th

1st

 

Tier 4:

12th

13th

16th

8th

14th

15th

 

* In my opinion, the overall strength of this year's 7th puts it in a class by themselves in Tier 1; hence, this is the team no one wants to draw. The regions in Tier 2 all contain at least one team that can make a legitimate claim at having a strong state contender. I feel like anyone in Tier 3 would be happy to draw within their Tier or Lower. Anyone in Tier 4 would play a competitive game against one another, and could possibly knock off the right team from Tier 3 on a given night. As far as assigning a specific number ranking to a team objectively, I tried to do so, but hope to convey the message that on most levels, they are comparable to teams/representatives within their given tier in a one-and-done setting.

 

** Finally, I feel that some teams could move into another tier after the first round. I say this because of the likelihood that a team gets to state, gets a relatively favorable first round draw, and is able to get settled in and have the nerves of playing on such a big stage calmed somewhat. This would especially apply to a team/coach who has never been there or hasn't been recently.

[mooremiller31]

1. 7th

2. 11th

3. - 16. Toss Up every other region has 1 great team in my opinion. The 7th and 11th have more then one great team. The 7th has about 4 or 5.

[Clyde]

How are we ranking them? Chance of winning the state title or overall depth? You can have little depth in the region yet have ONE team that can win the title.

[MNCM]

Did you count in strength of schedule with this? I agree that the 11th is strong, but I would not seperate them out above the 10th, 11th, or 9th.

[JokersWild24]

How are we ranking them? Chance of winning the state title or overall depth? You can have little depth in the region yet have ONE team that can win the title.

 

I based this solely on first round match-ups, considering that the draw was tomorrow. If you read through both of my posts, it may become more clear. I started with a number of factors to be considered, and tried to weight those I specifically mentioned in the first post as being equally weighted. As for what I meant by 'strongest possible contenders', I could have been provided a better depiction of my thoughts by stating 'strongest legitimate threats to win a given region'. I also left a couple of disclaimers at the bottom of the second post speaking as to how/why I ranked the tiers as such and why I didn't look past the first-round match-up.

[Clyde]

I based this solely on first round match-ups, considering that the draw was tomorrow. If you read through both of my posts, it may become more clear. I started with a number of factors to be considered, and tried to weight those I specifically mentioned in the first post as being equally weighted. As for what I meant by 'strongest possible contenders', I could have been provided a better depiction of my thoughts by stating 'strongest legitimate threats to win a given region'. I also left a couple of disclaimers at the bottom of the second post speaking as to how/why I ranked the tiers as such and why I didn't look past the first-round match-up.

 

So what you're saying is that I should have read the entire post? Good idea.

[gold sunrise]

My Rankings:

 

Tier 1:

7th

 

Tier 2:

11th

10th

4th

2nd

6th

 

Tier 3:

9th

3rd

5th

1st

 

Tier 4:

12th

13th

16th

8th

14th

15th

 

.

 

The region I would not want the 10th to draw...is the 7th. We have played some of the best teams in the 2nd, 4th, 6th and 11th and beat them. Only instate loss we have is to Henry Clay. Of course we have to get out of our region first. If we do, I think other regions would not want to draw the 10th either.

[JokersWild24]

The region I would not want the 10th to draw...is the 7th. We have played some of the best teams in the 2nd, 4th, 6th and 11th and beat them. Only instate loss we have is to Henry Clay. Of course we have to get out of our region first. If we do, I think other regions would not want to draw the 10th either.

 

:thumb:

[KyInsight]

Looking at the overall strength based on an average of teams. The 11th had the overall highest rating. This is from the Lit

REGION 11

1.Lexington Catholic 95.9

2.Scott County 95.6

3.Tates Creek 94.1

4.Henry Clay 92.5

5.Bryan Station 85.5

6.Madison Central 83.1

7.Paul Dunbar 80.2

8.Lafayette 79.5

9.Lexington Christian 77.4

10.Franklin County 77.3

11.Woodford County 74.8

12.Frankfort 74.7

13.Western Hills 70.2

14.Madison Southern 68.0

15.Sayre 65.3

16.Berea 64.3

17.Model 57.9

REGION 7

1.Eastern 107.9

2.Jeffersontown 101.9

3.Ballard 99.9

4.Trinity 93.8

5.Moore 92.0

6.St. Xavier 84.3

7.Male 82.9

8.Seneca 82.9

9.Fern Creek 82.7

10.Manual 78.1

11.Christian Academy 74.8

12.KCD 64.7

13.Waggener 61.6

14.Whitefield Academy 60.7

15.Collegiate 58.2

16.Atherton 52.9

[JokersWild24]

Looking at the overall strength based on an average of teams. The 11th had the overall highest rating.

 

Lots of that could be attributed to the bottom half of the region (and most of the teams in the bottom half have little to no shot of coming out of those regions). I cut out the bottom 8 teams, but it still works if you do this with up to 11 teams. The first advantage for the 11th comes when comparing the 12th ranked team. The 11th also has only one school in the 50's, but also has 17 teams, meaning that it helps disperse their lower rankings more evenly.

 

 

7th - 11 =

1 Eastern 107.9 - Lex Cath 95.9 = 12

2 J'town 101.9 - Scott Co 95.6 = 6.3

3 Ballard 99.9 - Tates Creek 94.1 = 5.8

4 Trinity 93.8 - Henry Clay 92.5 = 1.3

5 Moore 92 - Bryan Station 85.5 = 6.5

6 St. X 84.3 - Madison Central 83.1 = 1.2

7 Male 82.9 - Dunbar 80.2 = 2.7

8 Seneca 82.9 - Lafayette 79.5 = 3.4

 

Average 7th Region Advantage Based on the Lit Ratings = 4.9

Standard Deviation = 8.430737413

[westsider]

How are we ranking them? Chance of winning the state title or overall depth? You can have little depth in the region yet have ONE team that can win the title.

Case in point: the 15th Region last year.

[westsider]

The eight teams that make up the 7th Region tournament could easily be just as strong, collectively, as the eight teams that reach the quarterfinals of the Sweet 16.

[gold sunrise]

How are we ranking them? Chance of winning the state title or overall depth? You can have little depth in the region yet have ONE team that can win the title.

 

:thumb: