Will Christian County and Hopkinsville be merged this time around?  If so, does that mean the largest 5A school will be moved up?  Who were the largest 5A schools this last time?

1 hour ago, In the Game said:

Will Christian County and Hopkinsville be merged this time around?  If so, does that mean the largest 5A school will be moved up?  Who were the largest 5A schools this last time?

Christian County and Hopkinsville are merging at the beginning of the 2026 season. My guess is since this is the second year of the cycle, Class 6A-District 1 will only have three teams and the District 2 winner will get a first round bye in the playoffs.

2 hours ago, zoneblitz24 said:

I hope the KHSAA takes the realignment that was created by the AI model into consideration this time.  That seemed to fix a lot of the travel issues and makes the most sense considering the districts are only supposed to be created based off travel.  

Especially in 5-A. I remember a few years ago they did this. Us Owensboro fans love football but not 2 hour district games. 

I'm sure this has been a topic in the past, but just looking through the 23-24 data to compile the 25-26 alignment, how is Central still in 3A?  Granted the average number of boys is ~410, which puts it in line with other 3A school.  But with an overall enrollment of 1240, it seems to defy the trend across the state with enrollment numbers, ranging more closely to 50/50 (+/-1%) boys to girls.  Maybe I'm missing something but seemed odd to me.

25 minutes ago, DTRaider said:

I'm sure this has been a topic in the past, but just looking through the 23-24 data to compile the 25-26 alignment, how is Central still in 3A?  Granted the average number of boys is ~410, which puts it in line with other 3A school.  But with an overall enrollment of 1240, it seems to defy the trend across the state with enrollment numbers, ranging more closely to 50/50 (+/-1%) boys to girls.  Maybe I'm missing something but seemed odd to me.

Unsure of the actual enrollment numbers. I know classification is based on number of male students in the district. I'm assuming since they are a Magnet school they may be able to turn away boys unless they feel like they can contribute to the success of the school in some way. 

1 hour ago, DTRaider said:

I'm sure this has been a topic in the past, but just looking through the 23-24 data to compile the 25-26 alignment, how is Central still in 3A?  Granted the average number of boys is ~410, which puts it in line with other 3A school.  But with an overall enrollment of 1240, it seems to defy the trend across the state with enrollment numbers, ranging more closely to 50/50 (+/-1%) boys to girls.  Maybe I'm missing something but seemed odd to me.

I believe the enrollment for their magnet programs: Pre- medical, pharmacy, nursing, dental, veterinary, and law leans strongly female.

Will there be a trend of schools moving down? Example- Cov Cath moving down to 3A. I guess only time will tell- and so too the numbers! 

4 minutes ago, BlueBloodedColonel said:

Will there be a trend of schools moving down? Example- Cov Cath moving down to 3A. I guess only time will tell- and so too the numbers! 

If teams are moving down then somebody has to be moved up.  I know there are several 5A schools out west that have decreasing student populations that might make some things interesting. 

23 hours ago, Runcible Owl said:

I believe the enrollment for their magnet programs: Pre- medical, pharmacy, nursing, dental, veterinary, and law leans strongly female.

100% correct. This is the why.

4 hours ago, zoneblitz24 said:

If teams are moving down then somebody has to be moved up.  I know there are several 5A schools out west that have decreasing student populations that might make some things interesting. 

It looks like Kentucky must have done some census calculations in late-2023/early-2024 because here are a couple of articles that came out in mid-2024 about about population changes around the Commonwealth. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that have a bearing on school enrollments and the forthcoming football realignment.

Uncovering Kentucky’s fastest-growing areas | LinkNKY.com
(Published July 1, 2024)

Populations shrink in 42 Kentucky counties in 2023, including Fayette | WKYT.com
(Published March 15, 2024)


Key Info:

- Kentucky's overall population increased from 2020-2023, but 42 of the 120 counties in the state had populations that shrank.

- Jeffferson County & Fayette County were both among the counties with decreasing population, while all of the counties immediately surrounding them have increased - with the counties immediately surrounding Fayette County being among the most rapidly increasing populations in the state.

- Warren County was was the fastest growing county in the state by number (rather than by percent), with 7,201 people moving to the county between 2020-2023, and Bowling Green was the largest increase in the state by number, with 3,742 people moving to the city between 2020-2023. The Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area was the largest growing metropolitan area in the state, but the 19,505 residents added to that area between 2020-2023 also includes a large number of residents moving into Ohio and Indiana.

- Breathitt County is one the most rapidly decreasing county population in the state, losing over 3% of it's population between July 2022 and July 2023, alone. (See map below.)

6 hours ago, BlueBloodedColonel said:

Will there be a trend of schools moving down? Example- Cov Cath moving down to 3A. I guess only time will tell- and so too the numbers! 

Covcath just a few years ago was 5A. Has their enrollment gone down that much, to where they may be 3A now?

42 minutes ago, futurecoach said:

Covcath just a few years ago was 5A. Has their enrollment gone down that much, to where they may be 3A now?

Maybe it was a mistake... but this is a great example of why I never worried a whole lot about the current district/class when taking a job. It can change quickly. The best approach(for me) is take a job where everyone is committed to being the best they can be, then let it play out however it plays out.

Some mountains are bigger than others. Some places take more time to turn around than others. And... nothing wrong with that. Big challenges are one of the best parts of coaching, and life in general. 

 

1 minute ago, futurecoach said:

Covcath just a few years ago was 5A. Has their enrollment gone down that much, to where they may be 3A now?

I'm guessing @BlueBloodedColonel mistakenly said Cov Cath had moved down to 3A when he meant 4A. We definitely won't be moving down to 3A.

A lot of private school enrollment numbers started dipping, nationally, approaching 2020. Some of that was attributed to a ripple-effect from the 2008 financial crisis when a lot of families had to tighten up their belts and re-evaluate where they were able to spend money. Some of those families cut their budgets by sending kids to public schools instead of private schools, and once their kids were in the public school pipeline and were making friends in those schools, they just kept their kids in public schools rather than eventually switching them over to private schools even if the money was eventually there again to do so.

Cov Cath's enrollment was 603 in the 2015-16 school year, which I believe was the highest it's been since the 1970s. From that school year to the 2022-23 school year they saw a 22% decrease in enrollment at Cov Cath, which is how they dropped football classes from 5A to 4A.

Covington Catholic Enrollment:
2014-15: 573
2015-16: 603
2016-17: 597
2017-18: 592
2018-19: 585
2019-20: 545
2020-21: KDE Enrollment Data Not Complete
2021-22: KDE Enrollment Data Not Complete
2022-23: 470
2023-24: 496
2024-25: 521

The reduced private school enrollment numbers from the last 7 or 8 years have started correcting themselves in some schools. The enrollment at Cov Cath was 521 last year (I'm not positive what it is this year). I'm assuming we'll probably be staying in 4A, albeit one of the larger schools in 4A, whereas we've been more or less in the middle of the pack for 4A under the last two alignments.

12 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

I'm guessing @BlueBloodedColonel mistakenly said Cov Cath had moved down to 3A when he meant 4A. We definitely won't be moving down to 3A.

A lot of private school enrollment numbers started dipping, nationally, approaching 2020. Some of that was attributed to a ripple-effect from the 2008 financial crisis when a lot of families had to tighten up their belts and re-evaluate where they were able to spend money. Some of those families cut their budgets by sending kids to public schools instead of private schools, and once their kids were in the public school pipeline and were making friends in those schools, they just kept their kids in public schools rather than eventually switching them over to private schools even if the money was eventually there again to do so.

Cov Cath's enrollment was 603 in the 2015-16 school year, which I believe was the highest it's been since the 1970s. From that school year to the 2022-23 school year they saw a 22% decrease in enrollment at Cov Cath, which is how they dropped football classes from 5A to 4A.

Covington Catholic Enrollment:
2014-15: 573
2015-16: 603
2016-17: 597
2017-18: 592
2018-19: 585
2019-20: 545
2020-21: KDE Enrollment Data Not Complete
2021-22: KDE Enrollment Data Not Complete
2022-23: 470
2023-24: 496
2024-25: 521

The reduced private school enrollment numbers from the last 7 or 8 years have started correcting themselves in some schools. The enrollment at Cov Cath was 521 last year (I'm not positive what it is this year). I'm assuming we'll probably be staying in 4A, albeit one of the larger schools in 4A, whereas we've been more or less in the middle of the pack for 4A under the last two alignments.

During the last realignment (2025 through 2026) they took an average of the boys enrollment numbers for the previous two school years, which would have been 2022-23 and 2023-24 and based classification on an average of those two boys enrollment numbers for each school.

Here's a link to the KHSAA's breakdown of the last football alignment by class, according to enrollment data.

CLASS 1A: Alignment 2025-2026
Largest - Newport (186.5)
2nd Largest - Campbellsville (184.5)
2nd Smallest - Fulton County (87.5)
Smallest - Phelps (77.0)

CLASS 2A: Alignment 2025-2026
Largest - Morgan County (300.5)
2nd Largest - Trigg County (298.5)
2nd Smallest - Owensboro Catholic (198.5)
Smallest - Saint Henry (191.0)

CLASS 3A: Alignment 2025-2026
Largest - Hopkins County Central (409.0)
2nd Largest - Garrard County (408.0)
2nd Smallest - Glasgow (308.0)
Smallest - DeSales (308.0)

CLASS 4A: Alignment 2025-2026
Largest - Doss (538.5)
2nd Largest - Highlands (537.5)
2nd Smallest - Elizabethtown (409.5)
Smallest - Greenup County (409.5)

CLASS 5A: Alignment 2025-2026
Largest - Fairdale (759.0)
2nd Largest - Apollo (758.0)
2nd Smallest - Jeffersontown (545.5)
Smallest - Warren Central (542.5)

CLASS 6A: Alignment 2025-2026
Largest - Trinity (1217.0)
2nd Largest - Lafayette (1207.0)
2nd Smallest - Christian County (616.5) **
Smallest - Hopkinsville (490.5) **

** Christian County and Hopkinsville were both kept in 6A because they were originally scheduled to have consolidated into one school by then, so the KHSAA placed them both in 6A rather than scrambling to re-align everything else based on the self-inflicted delays in the Christian County Schools. The 2nd smallest school in 6A, not taking those two into account, was Meade County (783.5) and the smallest was South Warren (782.5)

1A has always been the 32 smallest teams in the state and 6A has always been the 32 largest schools in the state. With Christian County High School and Hopkinsville High School consolidating next year and becoming one of the largest schools in the state, that means there will only be 31 of the 32 teams from the last cycle to participate in 6A football...which means the largest 5A school will move up to 6A.

Fairdale and Apollo were the largest and 2nd-largest 5A schools (respectively) under the last cycle, but with especially with Jefferson County's population drop in recent years and to a lesser extent Owensboro's population drop, that leaves a chance that their enrollment numbers may not remain steady enough to keep them as the largest 5A schools. Cooper is definitely in one of the growing counties of the state, so is it possible that we may see Cooper move up to 6A? Also depends specifically on boys enrollment numbers as well, obviously, not just overall enrollment or even population. I'm not sure Cooper is growing at a rate enough to make their 2-year enrollment average jump up by roundabout 26 boys.

Here are enrollment numbers from the last cycle for Fairdale, plus the next 5 largest 5A schools.

1.) Fairdale (759.0)
2.) Apollo (758.0)
3.) Cooper (734.5)
4.) Dixie Heights (732.5)
5.) Conner (708.0)