...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky, and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee.

A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat of widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes.

Throughout the day, a seasonably deep mid- to upper-level trough with many embedded shortwaves will travel eastward from the central CONUS into the OH/MS/TN Valleys and portions of the Midwest. Initially centered over eastern Kansas, a surface cyclone will cross Missouri and proceed eastward during the day before shifting northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A following cold front will eventually enter the Mid-South after traveling southeast across the Ozarks. During the day, a warm front that was first located near the Ohio Valley region may move northward, but its advancement may be impeded by the effects of perhaps extensive convection throughout the area.

A significant QLCS( a line of thunderstorms not perfectly straight) may eventually form tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, and a greater area of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South may continue to be at risk from destructive wind, hail, and maybe a few tornadoes. 

 

 

 

The 06z HRRR serves as a decent example of my earlier post. The time frame is this morning at 7 a.m. EDT until Monday at 5 a.m. EDT. The Lightning Flash Density model suggests that a few of the storms might be strong. It displays the hourly total of lightning strikes from clouds to the ground. Up to six to ten strikes per hour may occur during the strongest storms.

 

 

Tornado Warning just to the west of Bowling Green right now. Broad rotation at the moment, but could spin up at any time. 

I'm sitting at bluegrass field. The second round of storms will start around 8 pm edt.

 Round #1 is over.
➔ Round #2 will begin around 8pm ET (7pm CT).
◆ Individual storms will develop over 
Western Kentucky and southern Indiana 
and congeal into a line moving southeast 
through the region.
➔ Expecting widespread damaging winds, spin-up 
tornadoes and hail.
➔ Flash flooding, especially over south-central 
Kentucky. Another 1-3 inches of rainfall, with 
locally higher amounts possible.

WKY getting ready to be upgraded to a Moderate (4/5) risk for the later round. 

 

 

 

Sun is out here in Louisville. 

Trees down all over the county down here, even a parked semi flipped over.

 

 

This is about as ugly of a radar image as you’ll see. Large debris ball on this storm just NE of Eddyville. 

 

 

Some scary stuff.