BGP Severe Weather Alert Day Monday April 1, 2024

[nWo]

A wide swath of the region, including parts of the Ohio Valley, the southern Plains, the Ozarks, and a tiny bit of the Mid-Atlantic, is predicted to see severe weather. There is a chance of large to very large hail, powerful tornadoes, and damaging winds. In the southern Plains, the severe threat will peak this afternoon/evening, with the evening/overnight period posing the worst threat to the Ohio Valley region.

 
Supercells from Illinois might cross southern Indiana and possibly southern Ohio in the evening as they move eastward with the warm front. Along this frontal zone, other storms may also form, with huge hail being the main threat. Compared to storms further west, these storms should pose less of an overall threat because to weaker instability and shear. On the other hand, a threat of big hail, destructive wind gusts, and maybe a tornado will be supported by severe shear and moderate instability. A ring of storms is predicted to move in from the west during the course of the night. A serious threat will still be supported by the nocturnal environment. The future evolution of this cluster is still rather unknown. All severe weather threats would be at risk from a cluster of supercells, although a more organized MCS might support a greater severe wind and QLCS (squall line) tornado threat.

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

I will be utilizing the SPC Mesoscale Analysis EMC RAP model for the first time. It gauges the rotational velocity of both the upper and lower atmospheres. This is the map I created to show the region I believe will have the highest probability of seeing a tornado.

 

 

 

[nWo]

Here's the latest SPC Convective Outlook for today. Sections of Kentucky are now under a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area. This includes the cities of Owensboro, Louisville, and Covington.

[nWo]

I'm on a conference call with the National Weather Service-Louisville office. Confidence is high in the severe storms tonight after midnight. Louisville area around 12–2 am. Cincinnati/NKY, 4–7 am.

[nWo]

My plan at this time is to be up around 2 am to start BGP coverage of the early morning storms.

[TheDeuce]

28 minutes ago, nWo said:

I'm on a conference call with the National Weather Service-Louisville office. Confidence is high in the severe storms tonight after midnight. Louisville area around 12–2 am. Cincinnati/NKY, 4–7 am.

Based on that timing, in theory those storms could clear out in plenty of time to cause a problem tomorrow afternoon. 

[nWo]

1 minute ago, TheDeuce said:

Based on that timing, in theory those storms could clear out in plenty of time to cause a problem tomorrow afternoon. 

Correct. If that does indeed happen, they say it doesn't matter what level of threat we are under; it won't be good for anyone. 

[TheDeuce]

4 minutes ago, nWo said:

Correct. If that does indeed happen, they say it doesn't matter what level of threat we are under; it won't be good for anyone. 

I've started sending out my pre-warnings to my circle to keep a heads up. They always look to me to keep them informed, I take it very serious, as I know you do you!

[nWo]

10 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

I've started sending out my pre-warnings to my circle to keep a heads up. They always look to me to keep them informed, I take it very serious, as I know you do you!

I agree I do the same thing. 

[theguru]

It rained hard here for a short time and I would say we had at least 35mph winds that were blowing almost due south.  

[nWo]

30 minutes ago, theguru said:

It rained hard here for a short time and I would say we had at least 35mph winds that were blowing almost due south.  

The first round of tomorrow's storms should be in your area between 4 and 7 am.