Tornado Watch (4/5/23)

[nWo]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 126 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT /5 PM EDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS

EDWARDS

IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

GALLATIN HARDIN MASSAC
WABASH

IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

POSEY

IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA

GIBSON PIKE SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 22 COUNTIES

IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MARSHALL
MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
WEBSTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBION, BARDWELL, BENTON, BOONVILLE,
CADIZ, CALHOUN, CLINTON, DIXON, EDDYVILLE, ELIZABETHTOWN, ELKTON,
EVANSVILLE, FORT BRANCH, GRAYVILLE, GREENVILLE, HENDERSON,
HICKMAN, HOPKINSVILLE, MADISONVILLE, MARION, MAYFIELD,
METROPOLIS, MORGANFIELD, MOUNT CARMEL, MURRAY, OWENSBORO,
PADUCAH, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, PRINCETON, ROCKPORT,
SHAWNEETOWN, SMITHLAND, WEST SALEM, AND WICKLIFFE.

 

[nWo]

 

[TheDeuce]

When I walked outside this morning, the first thought I had was "This feels like tornado weather."

[TheDeuce]

It's hot AND the sun is out here. 

[theguru]

1 hour ago, TheDeuce said:

It's hot AND the sun is out here. 

Overcast here and getting ready to storm. 

What was really nice was walking around outside about 2am last night.  It was calm and very warm, I loved it!

[nWo]

Wednesday midday Update:

 

A long band of broken showers/storms extends along/ahead of a cold front from southern Lower MI into parts of IN/IL/MO/AR/TX.  This line will progress eastward today across much of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.  Ample low level moisture and strong winds aloft will maintain a risk of bowing segments and associated risk of damaging wind gusts across the region.  A few cells along or ahead of the line could also organize into supercells, posing a risk of tornadoes.  Clouds could  lessen  storm trends and are decreasing the confidence of a more widespread damaging wind event, but there is sufficient concern of re-intensification this afternoon to maintain the Enhanced Risk and associated 30% severe wind probabilities in some areas.  

 

[nWo]

New watch maybe issued soon for southcentral Kentucky.

 

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A new watch will be needed in the next 1-2 hours from  portions of central/southern Kentucky into western/Middle Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from southern IL and extending south/southwest near the MS River ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Bowing segments within
   the line have show some increase in intensity over the past hour.  The current track of this line will bring storms into southern/central KY southward to parts of western/Middle TN by around 3-4 pm EDT. A new watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two downstream from WW 126.

   Strong heating across the region has allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 80s F amid low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints. This  will contribute to a corridor of destabilization ahead of the line. Vertical shear will remain favorable for continued organized convection despite stronger large-scale ascent shifting northeast of the region.  Damaging wind potential is expected to continue, with at least some  risk for a tornado or two with line-embedded small scale rotation. A tornado risk also could accompany any cells that develop ahead of the line, as vertical shear will support supercell structures. Latest HRRR and RRFS guidance suggests some potential for a couple of supercells exists from Middle TN into south-central KY. Latest visible satellite imagery shows some deepening cumulus beneath higher cirrus  on the edges of weakening inhibition, so this outcome at least  appears plausible.

[nWo]

Tornado Watch for western Kentucky has been canceled. 

[theguru]

The rain just started in NKY, we had some pretty strong winds too, maybe 30mph.  And I don't like the way the radar predicts the storm to progress, I can definitely see it hooking. 

[nWo]

All watches have been canceled.

[TheDeuce]

At least one EF-1 tornado has already been confirmed in Louisville. 

[TheDeuce]

 

[TheDeuce]

 

[TheDeuce]

 

[TheDeuce]