Strong Storms Possible Wednesday 10/12/22

[nWo]

A large upper-level trough will move eastward into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances southeastward into the southern Great Lakes, mid-Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely early in the period ahead of the front. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s F will allow weak instability to develop by midday. Conditions should enable a line of thunderstorms to develop during the day with storms gradually increasing in coverage in the afternoon. This line, possibly multi-segmented, should move eastward across the Ozarks, mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. 

In addition to weak instability other conditions could support a marginal wind-damage threat along the stronger parts of any line segments that form. 

[nWo]

Tuesday morning update:

All of Kentucky is currently under a level 1 Marginal Risk Area for Wednesday.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND VICINITY.

 Thunderstorms, a few of which may produce strong/gusty winds and possibly marginal hail -- are expected Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley.

In the wake of the initial showers and storms, modest destabilization should allow new storm development along the advancing cold front. Greatest instability will likely remain confined to areas near and south of the Ohio Valley. Marginal hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with a few of the strongest storms from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley southward. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, particularly from the Tennessee Valley southward/southwestward. Stronger storm potential will likely linger longest over more southern portions of the outlook.

 

The following model simulations are from around 2 pm EDT Wednesday to 8 am EDT Thursday. The first one is the NAM.

 

The second one is from the NAM 4k model. It is a high-definition model.

 

It shows the initial showers and possible storms. Then around 10 pm EDT as the cold front moves across Kentucky it shows possible showers and storms firing up. I will update everyone later today.

 

[nWo]

[nWo]

Thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds and hail, are expected this afternoon through the early evening. Thunderstorm activity ongoing early this morning across the central Plains will likely persist across Missouri/Illinois into this morning. Ahead of this activity, where some daytime heating can occur, weak instability is expected to develop during the afternoon. Somewhat limited moisture and broken cloud cover will likely keep the storm intensity muted across this region through the day. Nonetheless, conditions may support some rotating updrafts and potential for isolated severe storms.

A few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could become strong to severe, with locally damaging winds as the main threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, and small to marginally severe hail will be possible in the strongest storms.

 

[nWo]

I just received this email from the National Weather Service Office-Louisville.

Quote

 

We decided to send out this quick email because although the risk of severe weather is not high today, there are a few items that may deserve heightened awareness, and it has been a while since the last storm threat.

A cold front will approach from the west today. Ahead of the cold front winds will come in from the south-southwest and may gust to around 30 mph, especially late this morning into this afternoon. As you know, we have been very dry lately and any outdoor fires in areas with particularly dry fuels and gusty winds would have to be monitored very closely.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this evening. A few of the storms could produce locally enhanced gusty winds, small to marginally severe (1") hail, and we can't rule out a possible brief tornado. The most likely area for any isolated stronger storms will be in central and eastern Kentucky, especially from the Lake Cumberland area up through the Blue Grass region. The most likely timing for a severe storm or two in that area will be between 4pm and 10pm EDT. Something to watch today will be how much sunshine we get. More clouds should lead to less instability and lesser chances for storms, whereas more sun may increase instability and increase storm chances.

Be sure to keep up with the latest forecast updates and changes as we go through the day.