Hurricane Ida

[Kentucky Windage]

It's just now passing off the western edge of Cuba. From there, this thing covers a lot of ground very quick. This is probably one of the fasted moving hurricane tracks that I've ever seen. It's supposed to make landfall Sunday night. 

New Orleans leadership is telling the citizenry that it's too late to evacuate and that everyone should shelter in place. With all reports saying this hurricane will strengthen, I know I'd be looking for a way out. 

[nWo]

 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move 
over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday.  Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.  Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA 
reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

 

 

 

 

[Kentucky Windage]

@nWo 

Is this hurricane traveling faster than most hurricanes? Is it just me thinking that or an I mistaken. It seems like most areas have days to prepare for hurricanes before they make landfall. With this hurricane, those in the path of it have about 24 hours to make preparations. 

[nWo]

3 hours ago, Kentucky Windage said:

@nWo 

Is this hurricane traveling faster than most hurricanes? Is it just me thinking that or an I mistaken. It seems like most areas have days to prepare for hurricanes before they make landfall. With this hurricane, those in the path of it have about 24 hours to make preparations. 

Yes it's latest reported forward speed is towards the northwest at 16 mph.

[nWo]

The hurricane appears to have begun its anticipated rapid intensification phase.  A favorable upper-level wind pattern, warm waters along the track, and a moist atmosphere are expected to allow 
for additional rapid strengthening overnight and early Sunday.  This is again supported by the majority of the intensity models, and the NHC wind speed forecast continues to call for rapid strengthening, 
bringing Ida to Category 4 status within 12 to 18 hours.  An eyewall replacement cycle could occur as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast, so some fluctuations in intensity are possible during that time.

Ida's satellite presentation has continued to improve this afternoon, with the eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and visible satellite imagery.  The eye is surrounded by a symmetric
ring of cold cloud tops and new convection with lightning as seen by the GOES-16 GLM sensor has been rotating around the western portion of the eyewall within the past few hours. The upper-level 
outflow has also become well established over the hurricane and several spiral bands are noted over the northern semicircle.  

 

 

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation 
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama  
within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening 
inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible 
somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast 
of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane 
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local 
inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning 
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These
winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across 
the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal 
Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable 
to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river 
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts 
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, 
and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

 

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday.  A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move
over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and
Monday night.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday.  Weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).  NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

[TheDeuce]

800,000, including all of New Orleans, are without power. 

[TheDeuce]

 

[The Raven]

I have an Aunt, Uncle and cousins that live in New Orleans.   I have yet to hear if they have evacuated.  They have waited out some.  For Katrina, they evacuated.   Prayers to everyone in the area.  Let's hope it's not as bad as predicted.