Severe Weather Alert Day for Thursday (3/25/21)

[nWo]

I might be jumping the gun some but I'm going to go ahead and issue a Severe Weather Alert Day for tomorrow. I've just been going over some of the modeling data and the severe weather threat has increased since yesterday. I fully expect it to increase even more by tomorrow. First, let look at the latest day 2 map from the Storm Prediction Center. 

 

As you can see a section of Kentucky south and west of a line from just north of Paducah to around Madisonville then down southeastward towards Russellville is in a Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area. While most of the rest of Kentucky is in a Category 2 Slight Risk Area. I fully expect to see the Enhanced Risk Area expanded to include the areas around the I-65 corridor.

Now we'll take a look at the data I've been going over this evening. The period covered is from 2 pm EST to around 4 am EST Friday. The first map is the jet stream. Around 5 pm EST, there will be a strong jet stream with winds of around 117 mph coming out of the southeast. This will cause some serious divergence. A really good setup for a strong weather event.

 

The following map is to shows the dew points along with the wind direction. Everyone can see the moisture moving in from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front that will cause the severe weather. The dew points could reach the mid-60s. Also, notice the winds that will be coming out of the southeast. That combined with the jet stream will cause twisting in the atmosphere. You can see the front enter western Kentucky around 5 pm EST and traverse from west to east across Kentucky. Also with the jet stream will move any storms into the warm moist air mass. This will raise the severe weather potential.

 

The mixed layer cape will show us how fast the warm air will rise. Between 6-11 pm EST there will be a lot of instability. Another reason I'm issuing this alert early is because this event could go into the night time hours.

 

 

The next map shows the instability at low levels of the atmosphere. This is important for tornado development. I feel the best chance for any tornadoes to form will be west of I-75.

 

 

Here is the simulated radar for the same time period.

 

 

I will post an update early tomorrow morning. A word to the wise. Everyone should be preparing their emergency action plan for tomorrow evening.

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

A significant severe weather event may be unfolding later today. As I expected the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the category 3 Enhanced Risk Area. It now covers almost all of the section of Kentucky south of I-65 and west of I-75. North of I-65 and east of I-75 is in a category 2 Slight Risk Area. A portion of western and southcentral Kentucky is now under a category 4 Moderate Risk Area.

 

 

A tornado outbreak is expected today into early this evening across parts of the  Southeast northward into the Tennessee Valley. Several long-track strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and very large hail are forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley, eastward across parts of the Southeast and northward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

I am watching this situation closely and will post updates throughout the day. Everyone should be reviewing their emergency action plans before the storms form this afternoon into the  evening hours. 

[TheDeuce]

Everyone be weather aware this afternoon/evening, especially the further south you are. 

[TheDeuce]

If you want to watch ongoing coverage from Alabama, check out ABC 33/40's Facebook page, their live stream will be up all day. 

[Runcible Owl]

1 hour ago, TheDeuce said:

If you want to watch ongoing coverage from Alabama, check out ABC 33/40's Facebook page, their live stream will be up all day. 

Big boy storms now in the ATL too.

[nWo]

I'm back on now. For some reason I was able to log on to BGP with my phone but not my laptop. I think I forgot to change my password on the laptop and got locked out.