March 19, 20206 yr I"m issuing a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for this evening into Friday morning. I'm also issuing a Level 2 BGP Tornado Threat Index. It will be on the high end of the Level 2 for portions of extreme western Kentucky. Severe Thunderstorms are expected for portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and tornadoes are possible. It appears upper 60s surface dew points will exist in western Kentucky. While forecast lapse rate (the rate at which air temperature falls with increasing altitude) will not be steep, very strong shear and high moisture content in the upper atmosphere should prove sufficient for damaging wind and a tornado threat with organized line segments and embedded supercells. Given the conditions that should exist later this evening sections of western Kentucky are in a Category 3 Enhanced Risk area. Just east of that area a portion of Kentucky is in a Category 2 Slight Risk Area. Also, a narrow section of the state is in a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area. As of this morning, it appears that these storms won't reach western Kentucky until later tonight and move northeastward through Kentucky during the night into the early morning hours on Friday. The following is the HRRR radar. I'm using it because it shows the movement of the storms every hour. The NAM shows the position of the storms every 3 hours. The time period for all of the simulations is from 11 pm EDT Thursday to 8 am EDT Friday morning. HRRR Radar NAM EHI NAM Supercell NAM Significant Tornado The SARS-Soundings are indicating the strongest storms/supercells could produce hail 1" in diameter. Tornadoes from EF-0 to the low-end EF-3 category will also be possible. Everyone who could be affected should have a way to get notifications of impending severe weather in their area. Since this appears to be a late-night event please check the conditions in your area before going to be tonight. There is also a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area for Friday.
March 19, 20206 yr Author This what I have received from the NWS-Louisville office this morning: There will be several waves of rains with embedded storms running from late this morning through the day Friday. Storms will initiate this morning along a warm front as it lifts north to the Ohio River by lunchtime. These storms are not expected to be severe. A lull should develop this afternoon before storms fire off again tonight. This wave has the best potential to become severe, with damaging winds and tornadoes as the main threats. At this time, the focus for these severe storms looks to be over our southern Indiana and north central Kentucky counties...though anywhere in the slight or marginal risk area should be prepared for stronger storms, as the last couple of severe events have taught us. Friday will be gusty as a couple more lines of showers and perhaps storms develop, just ahead of a strong cold front. These storms are not expected to be severe, but given colder air over the region, some hail is not out of the question. The Storm Prediction Center has extended the category 3 Enhanced Risk Area now includes Louisville.
March 19, 20206 yr Author A tornado watch may be issued for portions of western Kentucky later today. Severe weather potential with developing thunderstorm activity may remain relatively isolated in the near term, but the risk for damaging wind gusts and storms capable of producing tornadoes probably will begin to increase toward 2-3 PM. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of one or more tornado watches.
March 19, 20206 yr Author The cat. 3 Enhanced Risk Area has been extended a little be further towards the northeast. It is now around Warsaw, Ky. Conditions will support potential for supercells and bowing line segments capable of damaging wind, tornadoes and hail.
March 19, 20206 yr The cat. 3 Enhanced Risk Area has been extended a little be further towards the northeast. It is now around Warsaw, Ky. Conditions will support potential for supercells and bowing line segments capable of damaging wind, tornadoes and hail. [ATTACH=CONFIG]70038[/ATTACH] Warsaw is where I live.
March 19, 20206 yr Author A mesoscale discussion has just been issued for the affected areas of southern Indiana, western and northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio. There is an increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes particularly with developing storms that have rotational features. These are found in bow echos and supercell Thunderstorms. As of now, there is an 80% chance that a watch will be issued.
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