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Louisville vs. Kentucky predictions

Who wins? 79 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?

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I don't blame you for not understanding the difference; it's difficult to pick out. Infrared jerseys exist beyond the spectrum of visible light. Sometimes, when Peyton Siva runs fast enough, you can't see anything at all.

 

If only that meant I didn't have to see them. Add in Baylor's day-glo ones while we're at it.

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If only that meant I didn't have to see them. Add in Baylor's day-glo ones while we're at it.

 

To each his own (frankly, I'm a big fan of them), but Pitino has historically done quite well while putting his players in uniforms that other fan bases find visually upsetting. Exhibit A:

 

denim.jpg

To each his own (frankly, I'm a big fan of them), but Pitino has historically done quite well while putting his players in uniforms that other fan bases find visually upsetting. Exhibit A:

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]36214[/ATTACH]

 

 

 

Its not the denim its what inem...

Its not the denim its what inem...

 

Any validity to the scuttlebutt that a couple of Louisville underclassman may declare for the NBA this year?

Did you think UL could hold Mich. State under 50?

 

I'll admit that I wouldn't have bet on it, but Illinois held them to 41 so there was a least a precedent that it could be done. UK has not been held below 60 but once all season. I guess it's possible to hold them under 50, but I wouldn't count on it.

No doubt that a lot of things are going to have to break right for Louisville to pull this off. It's going to require a near-flawless game by the Cardinals. I've specifically been thinking about three things that will have to happen:

 

Pacing

This can't turn into a track meet. As soon as Kentucky starts running, it's over. I don't care who they're playing. Those seven McDonald's All-Americans they're sitting on got there for a reason. I'm remembering the 2009 regional final when Kalin Lucas of Michigan State just ran right through Louisville's press and by the time we'd made the necessary adjustments, we were already in a hole. Force the half-court game and make sure you go deep into the shot clock. If Kentucky gets beyond the mid-70s, there's real trouble. If Louisville's going to win, it's probably going to have to be more like mid-60s.

 

Fouls

I have a bad feeling we're going to see both teams' frontcourts in early foul trouble. Seems to be a pattern this postseason. But beyond that, Louisville can't just send UK to the foul line and call it defense. That 35-37 performance I saw against IU on Friday night was one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen. Typically you can count on a Calipari team being lousy from that standpoint and blowing a big game at the line... this is not those teams.

 

Kyle Kuric & Chris Smith

I name them specifically because they're Louisville's outside shooters. UK has solid perimeter defense, holding opponents to about 32% last time I saw. The teams that have beaten them or at least held them close have shot about 40% or better. Louisville's only shooting about 32% on the season and unless something significant changes, that's not going to cut it. Louisville can't manage UNC's game plan because we just don't have the talent and probably can't manage IU's because we don't have the shooters. Kuric and Smith are the guys that are going to have to make some big shots from beyond the arc.

 

As always, Peyton Siva is going to have to protect the ball. Turnovers will be costly in this one.

 

I can envision a Louisville win, albeit through a glass, darkly. Looking at the various scenarios for how this game could play out, there's no doubt that most of them end in a Kentucky win. But this isn't a series; in March you only have to play that one great game to move on. I can't wait.

^I agree with most everything in there.

 

I would also venture that Doron Lamb, Darius Miller, and Kyle Wiltjer should be right there in your Kuric and Smith point. If those 3 guys are hitting from the outside, it's not going to matter what Kuric and Smith are doing. As I've said all tournament long, the magic number behind the arc is 8. Cats knock down 8 triples and they aren't beatable IMO.

No doubt that a lot of things are going to have to break right for Louisville to pull this off. It's going to require a near-flawless game by the Cardinals. I've specifically been thinking about three things that will have to happen:

 

Pacing

This can't turn into a track meet. As soon as Kentucky starts running, it's over. I don't care who they're playing. Those seven McDonald's All-Americans they're sitting on got there for a reason. I'm remembering the 2009 regional final when Kalin Lucas of Michigan State just ran right through Louisville's press and by the time we'd made the necessary adjustments, we were already in a hole. Force the half-court game and make sure you go deep into the shot clock. If Kentucky gets beyond the mid-70s, there's real trouble. If Louisville's going to win, it's probably going to have to be more like mid-60s.

 

Fouls

I have a bad feeling we're going to see both teams' frontcourts in early foul trouble. Seems to be a pattern this postseason. But beyond that, Louisville can't just send UK to the foul line and call it defense. That 35-37 performance I saw against IU on Friday night was one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen. Typically you can count on a Calipari team being lousy from that standpoint and blowing a big game at the line... this is not those teams.

 

Kyle Kuric & Chris Smith

I name them specifically because they're Louisville's outside shooters. UK has solid perimeter defense, holding opponents to about 32% last time I saw. The teams that have beaten them or at least held them close have shot about 40% or better. Louisville's only shooting about 32% on the season and unless something significant changes, that's not going to cut it. Louisville can't manage UNC's game plan because we just don't have the talent and probably can't manage IU's because we don't have the shooters. Kuric and Smith are the guys that are going to have to make some big shots from beyond the arc.

 

As always, Peyton Siva is going to have to protect the ball. Turnovers will be costly in this one.

 

I can envision a Louisville win, albeit through a glass, darkly. Looking at the various scenarios for how this game could play out, there's no doubt that most of them end in a Kentucky win. But this isn't a series; in March you only have to play that one great game to move on. I can't wait.

 

So you think the Cards shouldn't press? That's the best way for them to win IMO.

Pacing

This can't turn into a track meet. As soon as Kentucky starts running, it's over. I don't care who they're playing. Those seven McDonald's All-Americans they're sitting on got there for a reason. I'm remembering the 2009 regional final when Kalin Lucas of Michigan State just ran right through Louisville's press and by the time we'd made the necessary adjustments, we were already in a hole. Force the half-court game and make sure you go deep into the shot clock. If Kentucky gets beyond the mid-70s, there's real trouble. If Louisville's going to win, it's probably going to have to be more like mid-60s.

 

 

Heard Bilas I believe say that UL may not send but one player to the offensive glass to ensure they get back on defense to help control pace. Did they do that last match-up?

It's a double edged sword....In order to have a chance they have to force turnovers, but if they make it an up and down game they'll be done by halftime. They have to press, but do it in a way to slow down the game and potentially force some turnovers at the same time.

So you think the Cards shouldn't press? That's the best way for them to win IMO.

 

Sorry, reading that again that's definitely how that looks. It's not my intention. They should absolutely press. But I constantly think back to that 2009 game against Michigan State and I really believe that the failure to recognize that the press wasn't working and to adjust accordingly was a big reason for the loss (that and a giant foreign guy who'd never made a three in his life suddenly lighting it up from beyond the arc).

 

One of Louisville's big problems giving up transition baskets this year was overcommitting to the steal while pressing and failing to get back into a half-court set (Behanan has been especially guilty). If they can continue to press without making the mistakes that have cost them at times, then I absolutely agree with you.

Heard Bilas I believe say that UL may not send but one player to the offensive glass to ensure they get back on defense to help control pace. Did they do that last match-up?

 

I honestly don't remember, but the things you do against a team full of freshman in December aren't necessarily the things you do against a team full of freshmen in March. So who knows...

Heard Bilas I believe say that UL may not send but one player to the offensive glass to ensure they get back on defense to help control pace. Did they do that last match-up?

 

UK severly out rebounded Louisville in the first meeting so it's definitely possible. To me the biggest issue is that UK is better at every position and the only one that is up for debate is Teague vs. Siva. UK has opened up it's offense in the tournament and the results have been easy shot and foul trouble for their opponents.

It's a double edged sword....In order to have a chance they have to force turnovers, but if they make it an up and down game they'll be done by halftime. They have to press, but do it in a way to slow down the game and potentially force some turnovers at the same time.

 

I'd say this is spot on. Show the 2-2-1 press after made baskets to slow UK down and if a turnover happens in the process all the better. You try to run and jump or trap against this UK team and Sports Center might have to go to a Top 20 on Saturday night with all of the highlight dunks. Force UK to work it across the timeline and start the offense with 25 seconds on the clock...

Gorgui Dieng will be at the center for Louisville. He's quickly become my favorite Cardinal with the way he carries himself and his hilarious interviews (both intentional and unintentional).

 

The C-J's Eric Crawford penned a great feature on the guy for Tuesday's edition.

 

Dieng a giant on, off the court

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