weather Category 2 Slight Risk for Severe Storms BGP Severe Weather Alert 6/5/19

Strong to severe storms are possible in the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the area during the morning, leading to some uncertainty in where exactly the greatest severe threat may develop. Also, the models all depict slightly different timing with respect to the conditions favorable for severe development. Regardless, overall synoptic (pressure pattern, front, wind direction, and speed) is favorable for severe convection, with some potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments.

I will be watching this closely and post updates when the information warrants it.

NKY - bulls-eye

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday across portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Strong thunderstorms, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind are possible. Data indicates that conditions could be favorable to support thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. While convective evolution remains unclear, there appears at least some consensus that severe weather potential may commence with an intensification or early period thunderstorms activity over the lower Ohio Valley. An outflow boundary trailing in its wake may provide the focus for renewed strong to severe development and east-southeastward movement across portions of Indiana into Kentucky.

The category 2 Slight Risk area is north and east of a line from just south of Owensboro to between London and Corbin.

The simulated NAM 3km Ohio Valley radar shows the possible storms indicated in the information above. It is from 8 am to 11 pm EDT.

I will update later today.

nWo, what’s the forecast for the weekend? We have a scramble Friday at our golf course and an invitational golf tournament Saturday and Sunday. Sure hope it’s not a washout. We’re expecting between 70-80 golfers.

nWo, what’s the forecast for the weekend? We have a scramble Friday at our golf course and an invitational golf tournament Saturday and Sunday. Sure hope it’s not a washout. We’re expecting between 70-80 golfers.

May not be a total wash out but here are what two of the long range models are showing for rain accumulations through 8 am EDT Monday morning. We should see rain each day through Monday morning.

The GFS

The Canadian

Baseball state tournament scheduled in Lexington Wednesday-Saturday is looking like there will be weather challenges.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Category 2 Slight Risk Area most of Kentucky. Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by some risk for strong to damaging winds and hail.

The NAM 3km Ohio Valley Radar is from 5 am to 8 pm EDT Wednesday. Those around the I-65 from around just south of I-64 should be on the lookout around the 8 pm EDT time slot. Update in the morning.

The morning showers or thunderstorms will decrease in coverage this afternoon. There will be some clearing of the skies. This along with some other conditions will likely prove instrumental in renewed development of thunderstorms some of which could be strong to severe. These new storms will likely develop late this afternoon and tonight. The main threats look to be hail, damaging winds, and torrential rainfall. The heavy rain could cause some flash flooding.

The first map is the HRRR Ohio Valley cloud cover map. it is from 4 pm to 10 pm EDT.

The next map is the HRRR Ohio Valley radar. It shows a line of showers and storms forming in central Indiana and move in a south/southeasterly directions around 4 pm EDT. They could reach portions of Kentucky between the 6-8 pm EDT time slot.

Check back for updates. Also, any warning I receive will be set out via our Twitter page.

The chance for strong to severe weather is increasing. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area for strong to severe storms for portions of central, southern and southwestern Indiana. The greatest potential for severe storms is over portions of the Ohio middle Mississippi Valleys.

Water vapor imagery shows an elongated shortwave trough extending across parts of Wisconsin/Iowa/Nebraska. This feature will track southeastward today across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, with an associated cold front also sagging through the region. A small area of intense storms is ongoing this morning over southeast Iowa. This activity is likely to become more widespread and intense by early afternoon and affect much of eastern Missouri and central Illinois building eastward into central Indiana. A few severe storms are expected to develop along the boundary as far east as northern Ohio. It is unclear how long the activity can maintain a high intensity, but at least isolated severe storms could track into parts of Kentucky after dark.

Storms are starting to fire up in central Indiana and northern Ohio.

A weather watch maybe issued within an hour for portions of western Kentucky and southwestern Indiana.

I was prophetic about NKY being the bulls-eye of last night's storm. The heart of it went right over Taylor Mill. A large tree from neighbor's yard fell into our yard. Lucky (and blessed) that it only took out our flower garden instead of our house! I didn't think that I'd be running a chainsaw and moving debris for an hour and a half last night.

I was prophetic about NKY being the bulls-eye of last night's storm. The heart of it went right over Taylor Mill. A large tree from neighbor's yard fell into our yard. Lucky (and blessed) that it only took out our flower garden instead of our house! I didn't think that I'd be running a chainsaw and moving debris for an hour and a half last night.

Glad you and your family are safe.

@nkypete that is why I do this so people can prepare as they see fit.

@nkypete that is why I do this so people can prepare as they see fit.

I really appreciate all you do for the BGP members! I think everyone should follow you on Twitter too.