Severe Weather possible for Tuesday afternoon

Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. For now, the timing looks to be from 2-11 pm EDT. I will update in the morning.

Thanks for sharing but I hope it bypasses N KY.

Thanks for sharing but I hope it bypasses N KY.

For now doesn't look like it will pass by NKY.

It appears that the severe weather threat has increased some. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Kentucky in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. If the modeling data continues to show this increase I fully expect the severe threat level to be increased. At this moment the threats appear to be damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two. As for timing between 2-11 pm EDT.

Here are some maps to show what I've been seeing.

EHI atmospheric energy conducive to the development of storms.

Radar from 2-11 pm EDT Tuesday

As we get closer, let us know potential impact on UK v. UofL baseball in Lexington on TUE night.

As we get closer, let us know potential impact on UK v. UofL baseball in Lexington on TUE night.

I sure will. I will post a more detailed lookout later today.

Reed Timmer (tornado chaser) says he’ll be focusing on Western KY up the river through SW Ohio for the potential for tornadoes Tuesday.

That's awesome. I was hoping for more rain! The mud isn't up to my knees yet.

:ohbrother:

Reed Timmer (tornado chaser) says he’ll be focusing on Western KY up the river through SW Ohio for the potential for tornadoes Tuesday.

I'm working on my outlook right now. If I lived west of I-65 I would keep an eye on the weather Tuesday afternoon.

As we get closer, let us know potential impact on UK v. UofL baseball in Lexington on TUE night.

As of now look for scattered showers Tuesday afternoon in the Lexington area. The severe weather looks to be in the Lexington area between 9-11 pm EDT. I'll be watching it closely.

Strong to severe storms will be possible for most of Kentucky Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. I fully expect that the Storm Prediction Center will upgrade the threat level Monday morning. The severe storms look to enter WKY around 5 pm EDT. They will transverse across the state and start to weaken as the night goes on. The greatest threat looks to be from 5-8 pm EDT. That is when the atmosphere looks to be the most conducive to the formation of supercell storms that could produce a tornado or two. For now, my main area of concern is from Owensboro to about the I-65 corridor. The main threats look to be damaging winds hail and a tornado or two. Some of which could be strong. Especially in the area from around Owensboro to Bowling Green then up to Louisville. Here are some maps for everyone to look over. I will definitely update everyone in the morning before I leave for work.

Radar from 2 pm to 2 am EDT

Atmospheric energy map EHI

Supercell Thunderstorm possibility map

The possibility of significant tornado development

Everyone can see that the time period of 5-8 pm EDT could be quite eventful. That is when most tornadic activity occurs in Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat level for parts Kentucky Southern Indiana and Southern Ohio. A category 3 Enhanced Risk Area has been issued for parts of Kentucky that include Paducah, Owensboro Louisville Bowling Green Frankfort Covington, and Cincinnati. A category 2 Slight Risk Area has also been issued for parts of Kentucky east of the Enhanced Risk Area. This area includes Corbin London Lexington Maysville Jackson Morehead. Southeast Kentucky is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms. The Following will explain each threat level.

Severe thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds large hail and a few tornadoes some of which could be strong. As of now the timing for Kentucky is between 5-11 pm EDT. Here are a few images to show what could happen Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Radar

EHI

Supercell

Significant Tornadoes

If this threat level continues or is increased I will go into a severe weather threat mode.

I'm going to go ahead and issue a Severe Weather Alert Day for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. The threat seems to have increased since this morning. I'll be starting a new thread.