Everything posted by ryanparker
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Mason County 34 Russell 21
I listened to this one and honestly was ready to come on here and deliver some sort of Simon Cowell-like speech about the play of Russell. Words like atrocious, disgusting, and unmotivated came to mind as I listened to them fumbling, bumbling, and stumbling on into the 2nd quarter and thought of the embarassing running clock that was surely coming in the 2nd half... BUT I was thrilled that Russell didn't quit after falling behind 28-0. Credit should go to the whole team for maintaining pride in the Russell football program and not allowing that to happen. In particular, Travis Jones just keeps elevating his position on the list of great Russell running backs. Good job by the Red Devils. I just wish they would find some way to come out of the locker room a little angry when the game begins. On the flip side of all that, congratulations to Mason County on the well-deserved win. The fact is that Mason County is the better team this year. It sure sounded like they used both speed, power, and toughness on Russell tonight with the long TD runs, the hit Akeem Jackson put on Justin Davidson, and putting Russell's QB out of the game with a concussion (that's what they said on the radio - they said they took him to the hospital - they didn't say how he is). Coach Buchanan even outwitted Coach McGlone tonight by pulling the onside kicks early in the game. That seemed to help to get the ball rolling for Mason, which then obviously snowballed! The fact that Pawsat and Gilbert are juniors and Harris is a sophomore is pretty frightening. The bar has been set in our district as the pendelum of power has swung definitively in favor of Mason County. As long as they don't suffer any letdowns over the next 3 weeks, the Royals should get an undefeated regular season. I only hope Russell can pull off an upset in the playoffs and meet them again in Maysville in a few weeks. Perhaps they can finally meet in better weather! It sounds like the bad conditions affected both teams equally. Mason fumbled on their first possession and gave Russell a chance to change the complexion of this game. Russell, however, fumbled right back. Harris then took off on a 80 yard run and the rout was on. Like I said, though, good job by Russell for not throwing in the towel. A better job by Mason by delevering a drive when they had to after the lead was cut to 28-21.
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Johnson Central 29 Ashland 28
It does sound like this was a great game between two very evenly matched teams. Ashland just happened to play a weaker schedule than Johnson Central, allowing them to come into the game undefeated and fool some of us prognosticators! The severe beatings Johnson Central took at the hands of Boyle County and Bell County earlier in the season just highlights the huge difference between good teams like Ashland and Johnson Central and GREAT teams like Boyle, Bell, and Highlands, which one of these two teams will likely get to see in a few weeks. Congratulations to Johnson Central, though. I hope Ashland can finish out their season strong.
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Lawrence County 52 Greenup County 12
I would guess that Lawrence is the best team Greenup has played this year. From what I heard on the radio, Greenup was simply manhandled. Lawrence County's much publicized work in the weight room has clearly paid off. The greatest single season turnaround possible is nearly complete! :-) Congratulations to Lawrence County on what they have done. I hope they can compete against Bell County in the playoffs this year. Greenup shouldn't get down about this loss. They've got a couple of games coming up that they with Boyd and East Carter where we will find out what the Musketeers are made of. It sounds like they simply got a lesson tonight in how to turn around a program. Lawrence just happened to be a year ahead of them.
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Fairview/Raceland Predictions
I agree. It's all about the path, not the prize (to steal John Calipari's signature quote). If the only thing that mattered was winning the state championship, then all of the northeastern Kentucky teams might as well fold it up this season. Heck, for that matter, all but about 10 or 12 teams in the state might as well fold it up. It's pretty clear that Raceland or Fairview are long shots against LCA this year, Russell is a long shot against Mason and Belfry, Lawrence probably isn't on the level of Bell County, and Ashland's likely not going to beat nationally ranked Highlands, but the challenge is to get into those games and give yourself a chance. To me, that's exciting enough and that's what each of these teams should be striving for, to make the most out of what they've got. If your team ultimately wins the whole thing, then I really feel the greatest satisfaction isn't in posing for pictures on the field with the trophy for a few brief moments before they usher you off the field in time for the next game to be played. After all, then people's minds immediately move to the question of whether you can do it again next year! I think the greatest satisfaction comes from the many moments it took to get there and experiencing the highs and lows along the way with your teammates, coaches, and fans. The feeling of knowing you gave it your all and laid everything you had out there for all to see. If it was good enough to beat everybody, then great. If not, then so what? To me, this is why high school sports are played and so fun to watch, not just for who wins and loses in the end.
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Russell/Mason County Predictions
I agree that the rain doesn't favor Russell or Mason County.
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Sick players
With the swine flu cases showing no signs of letting up, we might see some surprise results in the playoffs this year. It's coming up on the part of the year where viruses are more and more common anyway, but this year we've already seen several schools have numerous players sidelined because of the flu. If an outbreak hits a team on the wrong week, this should probably be factored into the predictions. Teams that have already been hit by the swine flu might be at an advantage since they likely have immunity built up headed into the playoffs. This might be one of the elements to consider along with the usual ones: speed, power, quickness, coaching, awareness, and swine flu immunity. For instance, you mentioned Highlands had 115 students out earlier this week. It's likely that no one in 5A is going to beat them this year, but some other team might be able to get them if half the team is down with the swine flu. Would an asterisk need to be placed by the results???
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Fairview/Raceland Predictions
I'm glad to see you post! I was getting worried about you since your last post indicated you had a fever and were not feeling well. Is the SidelineDoc going to be well enough to brave the elements Friday night and be there with the team? This might affect some predictions, you know.
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Russell/Mason County Predictions
I think Mason County is very good this season and has a real chance to represent the eastern side of the state in the Class 3A finals, but I don't think this will be the blowout many are expecting. These games have generally been pretty close between the schools. As for the comparison of each team's cumulative stats this season, keep in mind that most of Russell's negative stats came in a 2-week stretch against Ironton (OH) and Ashland. Those are a couple of exceptional teams. You're certainly right about the rain every year. Last year's game was a real mud bath at Russell. Mason County won 20-7. The difference in the game? Russell gave up a fumble, threw an interception, was 2 of 15 passing, and punted 4 times for an average of 14 yards! Everything else appeared to be about even with Mason County gaining 191 yards to Russell's 187 and getting 9 first downs to Russell's 15. However, Mason County got the win because they played mistake-free football. Russell is undoubtedly going to have to play turnover-free football Friday night to have a chance in this game. I think Russell's defense can hold down the fort enough to keep them in it, but they've got to keep drives alive, keep the ball away from Mason County, get solid special teams play, and have ZERO TURNOVERS! If they can manage to do these things right, then they have a chance at coming away with a win because they do have a lot of heart. I haven't seen a moment of quit in this team from the start of the year, so I don't expect it now. Call it a "homer" pick, but I'll take Russell in a close one. If not, then this will at least be the best test Mason County has left on their schedule to prepare them for the playoffs.
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Fairview/Raceland Predictions
Over the years, this seems to have been a pretty good rivalry. However, Raceland has taken control of this series as of late by winning the last 6 games. I get the feeling this year's game could go either way, but the one-sided results of the past few years make me go with Raceland. 2008 Raceland 40 Fairview 20 Raceland 37 Fairview 12 2007 Raceland 13 Fairview 0 Raceland 20 Fairview 12 2006 Raceland 40 Fairview 0 2005 Raceland 7 Fairview 6 2004 Fairview 58 Raceland 6 2003 Fairview 51 Raceland 17 2002 Fairview 24 Raceland 17 2001 Raceland 28 Fairview 0 2000 Fairview 14 Raceland 6 1999 Raceland 49 Fairview 8 1998 Raceland 37 Fairview 0
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Lawrence County / Greenup County Predictions
Looking at what each team has done so far this year, I have to go with Lawrence County in this one.
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Fairview/Raceland Predictions
This isn't a big game. It is a HUGE game. It's the matchup of the year for both teams because it will determine how difficult the playoff road will be for each team. Barring (no pun intended) an incredible upset of LCA by either team, the winner of this game will get a home game probably against Berea while the loser gets to travel to either Campbellsville or Williamsburg. Prior to the season, I would have picked Raceland, but Fairview has played very well while Raceland hasn't been as good as expected. This leaves me not knowing who to pick! I do predict it will be a very, very good game to watch, though.
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Rowan County 29 Greenup County 28
I listened to some of this one on the radio. It seemed like Greenup's defense has to get some credit for holding what was an explosive Rowan County offense to 0 points for nearly 3 quarters of play. They couldn't close them out, though. As Al Pacino so emotionally stated in Any Given Sunday, football is a game of inches and I'm sure there were many plays in the 4th quarter where the result would have been different had there been a few inches here and there go Greenup's way. Credit has to be given to Rowan on an inspired comeback, though. What a great job to not give up when things looked so bleak. The margin in this one tells me two things. One, Rashard Carter is an unbelievable running back and two, Greenup's program is headed in the right direction. I know it's probably painful for the Greenup players, but sometimes heartbreaking losses are part of the process of learning to win. Rowan should be competing for a district title this year.
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Boyd County 23 East Carter 10
Congratulations to Boyd County. They played hard in the 2 games I saw them play this year, against Raceland and Russell. They just always managed to shoot themselves in the foot and kill drives with penalties and fumbles. It's good to see them get a win and essentially clinch a playoff spot.
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Russell 45 Fleming County 25
It did look like a bad half of football from a team I had heard and expected to be much better.
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Russell 45 Fleming County 25
Good point. I forgot about the other 2 turnovers. I completely agree that his running ability looks terrific. I realize the little things need to get fixed like the false starts and turnovers, but I am most concerned about the lack of a passing game at this point. It is so important that we have at least a little threat there or the better teams will do what Ashland and Ironton did to us, stack the line of scrimmage and swarm the backfield almost before the plays can even begin to develop.
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Mason County 42 Lewis County 14
:laugh: That's a classic reply to the question "was the game close at one point?" Congratulations to Mason County for doing what they were supposed to do. Games like that can be difficult to get through for the players and sit through for the fans. Hopefully Russell can give them some competition next week.
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Russell 45 Fleming County 25
Some more detailed observations about this game: Fleming County has several good athletes. Devon Duncan, Preston Dugan, and Josh Gray really stood out as very good players. I was impressed with the overall sportsmanship of the Fleming County team as well. They just simply made too many mistakes, namely fumbles and poor defense. It will, however, be a very good game between Fleming and West Carter. Russell started their 4th QB of the year in this one, junior Patrick Cooper. He is clearly the best runner of the 4 QB's they've tried, but he did fumble twice. The passing game is still non-existant. At this point, I don't know if the problem is the QB's, the line, or the receivers, but it is so difficult for Russell to sustain drives without being able to complete a few passes. They are nearly totally reliant on Travis Jones breaking off huge runs. Thankfully, he's been doing so for the most part, but he didn't against Ironton and Ashland. The result? 2 losses. Will Rice is a good change of pace and Cooper ran the QB keeper well other than the fumbles, but Russell has got to come up with a way to complete some passes on a consistent basis if they want to be playing long in November this year. If they choose to leave Cooper in at QB, I would just want to make sure it is not to the detriment of his defensive play. He has been a standout in the secondary this year and it's hard to judge if using another QB and keeping him fresh for D might not be a better idea. It depends how much benefit he brings to the offense. We will see how it develops over the next few weeks. I thought the much maligned Russell line did a pretty good job tonight. Trenton Fyffe looked pretty good at tackle and Lee Marr did a good job at center. To me, the blocking looked better tonight against a pretty big Fleming County team. Travis Jones makes it look even better than it is at times, though, because he has been finding the open area better than anyone I've seen in awhile. The Russell defense is good. Again, I love the combination of Dehoff and Davidson at the safeties. Of course, Will Rice and Kamron Smith are the heart of the D. They played great tonight. The only flaw was the 2 unexplainable TD passes given up back to back late in the 4th quarter. I'm still waiting for Dehoff and/or Davidson to lay some receivers out. They have the size and athleticism to do so. However, they are just sophomores, so perhaps they will grow into being a little meaner players as time goes on. Other than that, I had no complaints other than it appeared the Russell team was ready to go on to the Homecoming dance after halftime. They woke up, though, and posted the all important victory. They have some decent potential. The coaches have a tough job this year in deciding how to use which players where. I have faith in them, though, to get it right before the playoffs.
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Raceland 21 Paris 0
I figured the Rams would win this one by a wider margin, but the margin really doesn't matter at this point. Raceland is 2-0 in the district with 3 exciting games to go in the regular season schedule. Congratulations to Raceland. I am interested to hear if Barr finally saw some playing time.
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Russell 45 Fleming County 25
Travis Jones started this game for Russell by taking the opening kickoff for a touchdown. Fleming County started the game fumbling and making mistakes. Russell went on to pretty much dominate the first half, leading 24-0 at the half largely behind the tremendous running of Travis Jones. Fleming County came out on fire in the second half, though, and looked like they were going to return the favor by getting some great runs from Devon Duncan. They cut the lead to 24-13 before Russell woke up and pulled away again, stretching the lead back to 38-13. However, Fleming County threw two TD passes with an onside kick sandwiched in between them to cut the lead to 38-25. Finally, Russell got the ball back and Travis Jones came off the bench, put his pads back on, and ran another one in from a long way out to close out the scoring.
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Mason County 30 Harrison County 16
From an outsiders perspective, I expected Mason County to post bigger margins of victory over the last two games again Rowan and Harrison. The schedule gets weaker from here on out with the possible exception of the game against my Russell Red Devils. We'll see what kind of fight they put up in Maysville this year. I just want to see your Royals get on a roll going into the playoffs because the window of opportunity is apparently wide open for Mason County to go a long way this year. Not only is Mason as good as they've been in a few years, but the other eastern teams are a bit down, such as Russell, Belfry, and Breathitt. As Coach Calipari says, "the path is greater than the prize", so I'm sure you should savor each and every victory along the way, but expectations are a bit higher for Mason County this year, so us amateur pontificators will throw in our two cents, whether it be wrong or right. Good luck to Mason County the remainder of the year.
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Greenup County/Rowan County Predictions
At least if all the transfers are back at their original home, Greenup, then it has the potential to be a prodigal son type story and turn out to have a happy ending.
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Mason County/Lewis County Predictions
It's good to see Lewis County get a couple of wins this year. I've liked their team ever since I saw them show up at Russell a few years ago with what seemed like barely 20 players. The same guys had to play offense, defense, and special teams all evening and they put up a heck of a fight. Lewis County has a winnable game next week against Nicholas County. However, this one isn't winnable.
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Ashland/Johnson Central Predictions
Wow. This one gets 2 weeks of hype like the Super Bowl. :-) This is an interesting matchup to me for a few reasons: 1) The 2 teams started off the season as differently as 2 teams can start off. Ashland beat up Greenup County while Johnson Central got beaten up by one of the top teams in the state, Boyle County. Ashland has continued their roll with impressive wins at Belfry and against Ironton (OH). Johnson Central had to have their confidence shaken by losing their first 4 to very good teams, but they have managed to get back on track against Middlesboro and what used to be a good team in Breathitt County. The fact that the 2 teams intersect at this point is interesting. 2) Johnson Central has beaten Ashland fairly soundly since a 13-10 loss in Putnam Stadium in 2005. The last 2 meetings have been 41-6 and 67-33 in favor of Johnson Central. With many picking Ashland to win handily, I wonder if high school football programs can do such an about face? If Ashland blows Johnson Central out, that's a single season turnaround for the ages. Something is either terribly wrong at Johnson Central, terribly right at Ashland, or both. 3) Johnson Central has lost their first 3 home games of this season. Losing here would mean they need to come away with a win against Woodford County the following week to avoid a winless 2009 at home. That's quite a surprise considering most thought that Johnson Central was on their way to building a perennial power. 4) Ashland is on a roll like they haven't seen in quite awhile. They beat Raceland for the first time in 3 years, won at Belfry, demolished rival Russell for the second year in a row, and beat Ironton (OH) for the first time since Ashland's 1990 state title team got the job done. They've managed to do all of this while losing their best running back in Rashard Carter to transfer and losing 2 of their starting linemen to injury. Their defense is drawing comparisons to the famed JAWS defense of 1975. The Johnson Central game shapes up to be their biggest road test of the season and offers another opportunity to prove themselves. 5) Ram's football knowledge is on the line. He has predicted Ashland to win their district since the season began and his reputation as a pigskin prognosticator is riding on it. All that being said, I think that Ashland is in for their toughest game of the season. While I doubt Johnson Central is more talented than Ironton (OH), I do think they will be more motivated because this is a district game on their home field and the beginning of a chance to salvage their season. Even with an inspired Johnson Central effort, though, I pick Ashland to win it 28-22. I think if Ashland loses, it will be because they don't have a kicker. Their spread offense has served them well in converting 2 point attempts, but at some point this season, they're going to need a sure point. I implore them to sign up a soccer player and have a kicker as they head into the most important part of their schedule.
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Fleming County/Russell Predictions
3A District foes once again, Fleming County travels to Henry R. Evans stadium Friday night to play the Russell Red Devils. Both teams got the district portion of their schedule off to a good start last week as Fleming beat Lewis County while Russell squeaked by West Carter. The teams have had similar results so far this season. Fleming is 3-2 with their losses coming to 4A Rowan County and 5A Woodford County. Their most impressive win came against 3-3 1A Raceland. Russell is 4-2 with their losses coming to 5A Ashland and Ohio powerhouse Ironton. Their most impressive win came against 3-2 West Carter. As you can see, both teams have beaten the teams they were favored against and lost badly to the teams they were supposed to lose to. With Mason County the heavy district favorite, the outcome of this matchup could determine who gets a home playoff game in a few weeks. Judging from the stats on the KHSAA site, Fleming County sticks to the ground and spreads their rushing attack around pretty evenly. Chip Clark has carried 42 times for 350 yards. Andrew Earlywine has carried 52 times for 239 yards. Justin Conley has carried 36 times for 150 yards. Devon Duncan, who must have been out the first 3 games, has carried 15 times for 119 yards. Clayton Rapp, who also must have been out the first 3 games, has carried 17 times for 79 yards. Russell, of course, primarily sticks to the ground attack as well. They don't spread it around nearly as much, though, as their main back, Travis Jones, has carried 96 times for 773 yards. Will Rice has carried 49 times for 215 yards. Neither team appears to have much of a passing attack to speak of so homecoming festivities aside, expect a quick game come Friday night. This should be a really good game as I think the teams will be pretty evenly matched. Fleming County should break a couple of big plays due to their speed and athleticism while Russell's Travis Jones should do the same for Russell. I'm going to predict that Russell wins because of the kicking of Tanner Locey and punting of Nathan Taylor. Both have been standouts this year fielding their special teams duties. This and the home field advantage add up to a 24-22 Russell win.
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Ashland 52 Waverly, OH 21
One team must have been scoring touchdowns while the other was scoring field goals if neither team could stop the other. :confused: