article 1A Notebook 10/17 - Chicken or the Egg?

We will do a review of last week's action and look ahead to this Friday's key games, but before we do that let's talk about scheduling and strength of schedule. This subject was brought up by some posters in discussing the Beechwood / Ludlow game. There were comments made about Beechwood's scheduling of big schools and it was even commented that they really aren't a 1A school because they play so many games against big schools. So let's talk schedules.

The Chicken or the Egg?

How should you schedule if you are or want to be a state title contender in 1A? I think most everyone would agree that you should schedule strong opponents to get your team ready for those tough playoff games. Do you need to schedule big schools? You really don't have any choice, do you?

An interesting trend that seems to be happening more is several of the better 1A programs have chosen to face other top 1A schools instead of scheduling big schools. Schools that are doing that include Paintsville, Hazard, Ludlow and Williamsburg. Does that help you win a title? It is interesting that top teams are choosing to face teams they might very well face again in the playoffs. What is the impact of that and why would you want to set up that possibility?

Still, sprinkled in with the 1A non-district schools, most of the 1A schools including those not in our top 10 include bigger schools on their schedule. The focus for most is on scheduling 2A and 3A schools. There are eleven 1A schools who have games against 4A or larger schools. Those eleven schools include 8 of the top 10. The other 3 schools with 4A or larger schools on their schedule are all top 15 programs.

Then you have Beechwood. The only games Beechwood plays against 1A teams are their required district games. Beechwood is the only 1A school with a 6A team on their schedule and the Tigers also have the top team in 5A on their schedule. Six of the seven non-district games for Beechwood this year are against teams ranked in the top 10 of their class.

This brings us to our question - which comes first? Do you need to be a top program to put the big schools on your schedule? Or, do you need to put the big schools on your schedule to help become a top program? I will let everyone think about that and decide for themselves. Here is one final piece of information to include in those thoughts. Below is a list of the top ten 1A teams in strength of schedule (using calpreps SOS) at this point in the season:

1. Beechwood ............17.7

2. Raceland ............... 4.8

3. Pikeville ................ 4.6

4. Hazard ................. 3.4

5. Louis. Holy Cross ... 2.9

6. Paintsville .............-4.1

7. Ky. Country Day ....-4.7

8. Campbellsville ........ -7.0

9. Ludlow .................. -9.4

10. Williamsburg ........-10.0

That list looks familiar, doesn't it?

Last Week's Recap

The Game of the Week was Paintsville taking on Hazard. This game lived up to its billing. Defenses ruled in this contest which ended with Paintsville getting the 12-7 win. In a game that was a defensive battle, what better way for it to end than with a goal line stand. Paintsville's defense stopped the Bulldogs offense inside the 10 yard line as the game ended to get the Tigers the top tier win they needed for their resume. This win jumped Paintsville up to #3 in the 1A rankings.

The other top game that was anticipated by many was the undefeated Ludlow Panthers taking on the Beechwood Tigers. Over 77% of the BGP posters voting in the pre-game poll picked Beechwood to win, but it is very doubtful any one of them would have predicted the dominance Beechwood displayed on their way to a 63-0 win. If anyone doubted Beechwood as the clear favorite to win a title in 1A, this performance probably removed those doubts.

Finally for our key game results from last week, the Frankfort Panthers were able to overcome their injury impacted roster and get a huge district win over then #7 Louisville Holy Cross, final score 39-31. Panthers RB Tremayne Jones rushed for 174 yards and the Panthers defense intercepted 5 passes to key the Frankfort win. This win sets up this week's district game for District 3's top seed in the playoffs between Frankfort and Kentucky Country Day.

The Big Ones Friday

Teams that have almost surely secured their district's top seed are District 2 Campbellsville, District 4 Beechwood, District 5 Paris and District 8 Hazard. Here are the games this week that will settle the top seed in the other districts.

District 1

#10 Russellville at Crittenden County - Russellville has worked their way back into the 1A top ten. They have played a tough out of district schedule and their two losses are to teams ranked in their class. Everyone better not forget about the Panthers. Crittenden County enters this game at 4-4 but the teams they have beaten for those 4 wins have only won a total of 4 games this season. This game looks like a 3 TD or more win for Russellville.

District 3

#2 Kentucky Country Day at Frankfort - The Frankfort Panthers sprung an upset last week in their win over Louisville Holy Cross. Frankfort almost did the same thing to Kentucky Country Day last year as the Bearcats came in heavily favored but left with a hard fought 33-24 win. KCD will not take Frankfort lightly. Look for the senior dominated Bearcats to show their maturity and get the clear win over Frankfort.

District 6

#3 Paintsville vs. #5 Raceland - This district game has turned into perhaps the best district rivalry in 1A. Paintsville comes in more confident than ever after their win over Hazard last week. Raceland started the year with a lot of new starters and many question marks, but the Rams have grown throughout the season and are looking for revenge after Paintsville defeated the Rams in OT last year in their district matchup. Paintsville has to be the favorite, especially at home. Expect another tough, low scoring defensive conflict with the Tigers edging out the Rams again.

District 7

#9 Williamsburg vs. Lynn Camp - Lynn Camp has quietly put up 6 wins but the question always seems to be the schedule. Their strength of schedule is the worst in 1A. For that reason, despite the 6 wins for Lynn Camp, look for Williamsburg to get the win and the top seed from district 7 by 3 TD's or more.

Summary

That will do it for this week's notebook. Let's hear your thoughts on the discussion about scheduling and how you think teams should schedule.

VOR, great job! As a really old retiree, I would think that in today's world success (initially measured in just #wins ) would need to be established to build a strong and sustainable program. Once that happens than the program's goals get gradually ratcheted upward to include playoff victories and progress towards championships. Since you mentioned BW and where that program is today, I would suggest local 1A programs that are now to the point of scheduling up next year are Paris, Bracken Co., and even perhaps Ludlow.

Getting your ears pinned back by dramatically over scheduling is not a successful path for all teams until a strong foundation is in place at all levels from youth upwards through varsity. I suggest the premise that seems to get a lot of chatter on BGP "that only the playoffs matter" is overlooking the myriad of value that football has to offer to all participants that don't hoist that Championship trophy at the end of the year.

I agree 100% with oldercoach if you don't have the foundation and support then I believe scheduling up to much would do more harm than good. I know that BW plays a murderous schedule but look in their trophy case. Raceland also plays no 1A teams other than district games. Once you have community support and a winning tradition established by that time your feeder systems are probably where they need to be. At this point scheduling up is in my opinion only going to make your team better.

I did a virtual double take and smiled broadly after reading a key phrase in oldercoach's terrific post. Do "only the playoffs matter?" Is the blood, sweat, tears and brotherhood over many months from so many wonderful young men across the commonwealth reduced to--"yeah, but Beechwood will put a running clock on them in the 2nd quarter?"

As a regular reader of 1A posts in particular, I get it...Beechwood is an outstanding football team that is the prohibitive favorite not only to win the 1A title but to do so in devastating style. And I respect what they've done, who they are this year and how this powerhouse program has rinsed and repeated for so long a period. It's noteworthy, admirable and factual. And they schedule to continue the domination.

And yet tomorrow night under those magical lights, and in front of friends and family, a bunch of hard working kids in small towns and big cities, extraordinary kids who've sacrificed and dreamed will become district champions.

Maybe they played up, maybe they played largely similar teams to themselves. I love the conversation and the analysis of how they do it. It keeps the mind active and the heart beating between Friday nights.

But in the end, what counts truly is the game and the young men. In the end, it's the way the lights shine off your teammates helmets in the waning seconds of a championship game steam rising collectively from your late October huddle and what it is like to experience that moment. In the end, it's the trust and love you build in this sport above all others that matters when you're blessed to win a championship...any championship.

That's what seniors especially think about. When you've played the game many Fridays ago, maybe you remember it. That's what senior parents get emotional about. Because in mid to late October, you can see the end of the pathway and the bittersweet conclusion to an incredible journey no matter how far in the playoffs you'll go.