Frederick Douglass vs. Bowling Green Predictions/Updates (8/24) (Rafferty's Bowl)

[Purple88]

2024 Rafferty’s Bowl – Nightcap!

Located at WKU at 8 pm Central

6A Frederick Douglass Broncos (0-0) vs 5A Bowling Green Purples (0-0)

 Streaming:  - Sporting Times (stfanclub.com)  (This is a BG stream and could be a Douglass stream too, but I don't have that info)

WHAT A WAY TO END THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE 2024 HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL SEASON!!!!

The Rafferty’s Bowl has another year of very strong teams continuing its trend as one of the better opening weekend bowl events around.  I would also like to highlight and give thanks to those that do the work to set these bowl games up across the state!  It takes a significant amount of time and work (more than we know).  Thank you for kicking off the season in style that includes this night cap featuring 2 State Championship contenders in the Frederick Douglass Broncos (6A) and the Bowling Green Purples (5A)! 

Frederick Douglass Broncos – 2023 State Semi-Finalist

The Frederick Douglass Broncos (Douglass) come into this game with a lot of positive momentum and individual player hype after going 8-5 last season ending the year in a very competitive road game, barely falling on the road to eventual 6A State Champion Trinity 14-7 in overtime!  You say 5 is a lot of losses 88; well, that’s what I really admire about the Broncos program.  Coach McPeek schedules to prepare for the deep playoff run and expects to be there in the end.  Every one of those losses IMO made Douglass better.  Opening game loss vs an extremely talented Archbishop Hoban (Ohio) squad who went to the final game of the Ohio Division II State Finals falling 7-2 to perennial power Washington (Massillon).  The Broncos lost back-to-back games in Weeks 4 and 5 at a memorable Corbin team 6-0 and at home vs a Cathedral Indiana team that went on to fall in the IN State Quarterfinals vs eventual 6A IN State Champion Ben Davis (27-24).  Week 9 they lost at home to that Boyle County team that’s kinda good.  In the 2023 State Quarterfinals, they took another step forward IMO defeating an always tough Male Bulldog squad (a founding member of the “Big Three”) on the road 21-20.  But that Trinity loss has them here ready to start building again for what should be another banner year for the Broncos.  I’ll let our friend @16thBBall Fan give you the home team insight for Douglass (as he does very well) while I focus on the Purples!

Bowling Green Purples – 2023 5A State Champions

Bowling Green comes into this game and this season on the heels of a great run to their 8^th State Title in 2023 with a record of 12 and 3.  They lost last year’s Rafferty’s Bowl game in an instant classic falling on a last team with the ball wins kinda game to a very memorable LCA squad 56-52.  Lost Week 3 in the LCA Bowl vs 6A Finalist Bryan Station 38-35.  And got an attitude adjustment vs a stout St X squad 27-12 to end the regular season.  In between those losses was a key rivalry win vs a strong and confident South Warren team, where the Purples would rally with less than a minute to play to pull that game and perhaps deep State Championship run out of the hat 36-29 at South Warren.  And they would circle the wagons after that X loss and post 4 consecutive running clock games with some favorable playoff outcomes (all on home turf) and the luck of RPI to march to Kroger Field and outlast a very good Cooper squad 28-14 in a crappy weather state championship game. 

The Purples return many known players that include 6 offensive starters and 8 defensive starters.  That is a little deceiving as many backups logged significant minutes last season as well; most notably their 2 rising Junior RBs Tre Graham and Jaxson Smith, who you could say arrived a year early and are now ready to go in a Purples offense that should again be lighting up a scoreboard near you in 2024.  The offensive straw that stirs the Purples Kool-Aid is Senior Leader and Star QB Deuce Bailey.  The Missouri State commit and Mr. Football candidate broke the all-time BG passing record mid-last season, so he will simply be padding his numbers this season and his all-time BG records.  Impressive.  His WRs are very talented, especially JR Travey Barber and SR CJ Sweeney.  Barber will be a D1 commit before he leaves Bowling Green.  But my breakout special for this season is TE Ethan Kirkwood.  The 6’2” JR has great hands and is a matchup problem for most LBs.  3 OLinemen return from last season and based on the scrimmage eye test vs 2 traditionally strong programs (at Scott County and vs Male), they should be another strong group for the Purples.

On the defensive side of the ball, 8 starters return from BG’s Jungle D that were a big reason for the 4 consecutive running clock games to start the 2023 playoffs.  They also held a very good Cooper team to less than 200 yards in the championship game, including -27 yards rushing.  The strength of the BG defense may be at LB with SR Jayden Axson and JR Montez Trussell, who were BGs #1 and #3 returning tacklers from last season.  Or it could be at safety with Seniors Grayson Newman and Ethan Warder.  They were the #2 and #6 tacklers on the team from last season, respectively.

And finally, the Purples kicking game probably can’t get better than 2023 Second Team All-State Soccer star SR Braden Widener, who really came on for BG last season and looks to be the anchor for special teams this season!

Previous Meeting – 2022 5A State Championship

Frederick Douglass and Bowling Green have only played once before and it was a big one.  They faced off at Kroger Field in the 2022 5A State Championship game (roughly 20 short months ago).  Bowling Green played well in the first half but could not put as many points on the board as they would have wanted.  Douglass adjusted their defense at halftime and started to blitz; causing BG a lot of problems and helping the Broncos pull away to their first State Championship win 28-7 in Lexington.  That version of the Douglass defense was one of the strongest groups I have personally seen a High School team have.

2024 Rafferty’s Bowl Preview

Both of these teams have significant speed and are used to having the speed advantage in the game.  But I would call this neutral for this game as both have good speed.  I think Douglass QB Jaxon Strautman is a good QB, but I do think BG has the advantage at QB with a proven Championship SR leader.  That doesn’t mean BG wins the game, but it does mean they will have a confident leader touching the ball every offensive play.

Who has the better Oline?  I don’t really know as it’s the first game of the season, but Oline play and the trenches will be a key in this game (like so many others).

RB Peyton Smith the EKU commit for Douglass is a very talented player.  I’m pretty partial to BGs JR RBs (Graham and Smith) too!  Lot of very talented skill guys littered all over the field for both of these talented teams.

What about defense?  Douglass graduated some outright stars out of that secondary; they will have to replace them.  Douglass LB Kaden Clay, the Southern Illinois commit, is an extremely talented player.  Will be interesting to see how and where Douglass lines him up.  Again, the Purples bring back 8 starters off a team that posted 4 consecutive playoff running clocks, so they should be much better than last year’s opening version of the Purple Jungle D (where they gave up a mind-numbing 700+ yards offense to a very good LCA squad).

I also think BG has an advantage in the kicking game.  Braden Widener has hit several 50-yard field goals over the summer.  That’s pretty impressive for any high school kicker.  But alas, I likely have my purple-colored glasses on, as I don’t know much about the Broncos kickers.

As you can tell, I'm pretty excited about this one!  Who do you have in this great opening weekend game?

[Purple88]

Ticket information:  (This includes the Boyle County vs LCA game at 5:00 pm central)!  Going to be a great football night!

 

 

[Tigerpride94]

This should be a good game and I won't be surprised if either team wins but I'll take Bowling Green in a close one since at home.

[PurpleTim]

“The offensive straw the stirs the Purple Kool-Aide….” You always have great one liners!

Everyone in state and certainly all opponents of BG, will have exact same game plan:

1 win time of possession

2 win turnover battle

3 keep Purples offense off field

Douglas will attempt to do these three things and believe if they can accomplish these 3 tasks, they will win.

However, Mr. Deuce, the stirrer of the Kool-Aide, is confident that if his defense can get a couple of extra stops, that’s all he will need to take care of business. 
 

Big players make big plays. BG has some very big (as highly talented HS players you’ll see in the Bluegrass) players that WILL make big plays, regardless of their opponent.

One possible issue that Purples will face two or three times this year: On paper (which can be dangerous) this is a generational team. Not only 14 starters returning but ALL high level skill players and best defensive players return. Coaches must keep this team grounded. They will average 50+ per game. Even if they only average 40 (which they won’t) it will be very difficult for their opponents to score 40+ to steal a victory.

it will be a great game with two great teams. Will be fun. Hoping for good weather and no injuries. 
 

My prediction: Purples pull away in 4th quarter for the win!

As always, great job 88; remarkable write up!

[Brown]

Right out of the gate 2.of the best overall teams in the state! BG the heavy favorite to repeat as 5A champs.  I’ll have to look at this one before voting.  
 

My one note from last year South Warren had a win in their hand last year until the BG special hook and ladder.  What I remember was SW ran a jailhouse blitz on a lot of plays.

[BillNye]

I'm pretty conflicted.

Douglass has a plethora of Division I kids that can flat out play. They are a healthy mix of bigs and skill guys too. Offensively, I favor the Purples. But I can't take a single thing away from Freddy D. They will come in prepared and ready to roll. I expect the game to be ultra competitive, and no matter the result I feel certain that it will be two of the best teams in the state duking it out.

So excited the season is here!

[NLTanker1]

I'm not ready to make my pick yet, but I think it could come down to whoever has the ball last.

I'm trying not to base my prediction off of their last scrimmage performances. I need to think on this a few days.

[Redheat]

I am going with Douglas in this one.

[LongTimeReader]

Douglass’ offense didn't look very good against X so I think BG wins 31-17. 

[Maroon Beech]

Great write up Purple88 (as usual!). Should be a Classic!

[Cousin Chris]

Don’t forget that FD just got the transfer edge from Dayton who is a 4 star top 200 player in the country.  He could potentially put a lot of pressure on Bailey.

[16thBBall Fan]

                                                  Frederick Douglass Broncos 2024

The Broncos come into the 2024 season with high hopes as they have had in each of their now 8 seasons. The Broncos when they got to for the first time since the school opened last season to schedule more than just one game on the schedule toughened it up and then some playing a national top 30 program in Archbishop Hoban as well as Indiana power Cathedral from Indianapolis and then throw in Trinity and Corbin from KY for good measure.

The Broncos record was not what it had been in past seasons with the strengthened schedule, but the Broncos improved throughout the season that did include a regular season road win at Trinity. Their season ended in the 6A semifinal with a 14-7 OT loss at 6A champ Trinity which was by far the Shamrocks toughest game of the playoffs.

Frederick Douglass lost some great D1 talent from their defensive unit last year with LB Darion Neal and Evan Chase. The also maybe three of the best DB in the state in CJ Clinkscale, Terrion Hicks, and Jeremiah Lowe. The offense lost two excellent large OL men in Demeco Kennedy and Zuri Madison. They also lost K/WR Cooper Ranvier.

The Broncos while losing a lot of very good players the cupboard is not empty at all. They return QB Jaxon Strautman who was thrown into action last season when Cole Carpenter sustained a season ending injury in their scrimmage with St. X. Strautman's play improved with each week of play and is ready to take control of running the Bronco offense this season. He has some very good speedy receivers returning this season in Darion and Dakari Talbert. The Broncos have some speed and hard runners in the backfield in "Tay Tay" Allen and Taylor County transfer Peyton Smith. They also return some of the OL in Austin Harmon and Jalen Johnson.

Douglass has another very good schedule this season with regular season games against three 2023 KHSAA State Champions (Trinity, Bowling Green, and Boyle Co.). They also play Corbin, Manual, Male and 6A 2023 runner-up Bryan Station.

I thought the Broncos offense looked a little behind their defense in the scrimmage last Friday at St. X, however the Tigers excellent defense may have had a little to do with that. It will take Smith a little time to get use to a new team and offense, but he is a very talented player who I believe will have a good season as a Bronco. A big question in this game will be if KHSAA will clear 4-star Cedric Works Jr. he will have his required practices in to play. This should be a good one the Purples looked very good in their scrimmage vs. Male. I am looking forward to this one. Go Broncos!!

[Cheese]

This may be the best game of the opening weekend in my opinion. Should also see both these teams in each of their respected classes competing for all the marbles in December. Tuff one to pick early. I am a fan of both teams. My gut instincts say Bowling Green because of the confidence the offense is posing early on. Good luck to both teams. 

[Cousin Chris]

I’m going with FD in a close one.

[Purple88]

Just for fun, I went back to see how many Douglass players and Purples players actually played in the 2022 State Championship game (the only game these 2 teams have played before).

That would mean they would have to have been Sophomores or Freshmen to have played then and still be eligible for this season.  Also, I only checked for players that had actual official game stats in the game.

For Frederick Douglass, there are 2:

WR Aveion Chenualt and LB Logan Busson

For Bowling Green, there are 6:

QB Deuce Bailey, WR Travey Barber, WR CJ Sweeney, WR/DB Ethan Warder, DB Grayson Newman, and DL Mekhi Axson

Going to be a great game!