Severe Threat Possible Tuesday(5/3/22)

[nWo]

On Tuesday, an upper-level low will move across the Ozarks as west-southwesterly mid-level winds remain over the Ohio Valley. A surface cold front will advance southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley as a warm moist and unstable airmass spreads northeastward across the Ohio Valley. Conditions will be favorable for severe storms capable of producing wind damage. Supercells with isolated large hail could also occur. The main concern is how the morning precipitation will impact the airmass later into the day. A level 2 Slight Risk Area has been placed where confidence is the greatest concerning destabilization.

 

 

 

Check back for updates tomorrow.

[nWo]

Monday evening update:

 A severe threat will be possible Tuesday mainly from Kentucky and across Ohio. A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Ohio Valley. Low pressure will move from Indiana into Ohio during the afternoon. A front will extend west/southwest from the low. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will stream northeast out of Tennessee and Kentucky across Ohio.

 

 

Storms are likely Tuesday morning across parts of Indiana and Ohio. Daytime heating will occur behind this activity aiding in the conditions being favorable for severe storms to form later during the day. These storms are likely to form along the front across Indiana and Kentucky. These conditions will favor both hail and damaging winds. Storm Relative Helicity will increase and may yield a few supercells. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the level 2 Slight Risk Area to account for this to include much of Ohio

 

The strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching cold front. The main window is from 2-10 pm EDT. The greatest threat area will be along and east of I-65. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, although in the strongest storms hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

 

 

 

 

Check back for updates tomorrow.