4th Region Final Rankings and Postseason Preview

[DragonFire]

1) Bowling Green (18-2) - 3/8 90-54 W #12 Warren East, 3/9 78-39 W at #4 Franklin-Simpson    
Previous Rank: 1    
This Week: 3/16 vs. TBA    
    
2) Warren Central (8-6) - 3/9 66-38 W at Adair County, 3/11 59-63 L Muhlenberg County    
Previous Rank: 2    
This Week: 3/17 vs. #8 Greenwood (at Bowling Green)    
    
3) Clinton County (19-3) - 3/9 82-31 W Somerset Christian    
Previous Rank: 3    
This Week: 3/14 at #14 Cumberland County    
    
4) Franklin-Simpson (12-3) - 3/9 39-78 L #1 Bowling Green    
Previous Rank: 4    
This Week: 3/14 vs. #17 Todd County Central    
    
5) Barren County (19-7) - 3/9 51-37 W at Grayson County, 67-64 W at Southwestern    
Previous Rank: 5    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #11 Glasgow    
    
6) South Warren (16-5) - 3/8 57-37 W #10 Russell County, 3/9 67-54 W #7 Metcalfe County, 3/11 54-46 W at Ohio County    
Previous Rank: 6    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #12 Warren East (at Bowling Green)    
    
7) Metcalfe County (15-9) - 3/9 54-67 L at #6 South Warren, 3/11 63-65 OT L at Campbellsville    
Previous Rank: 7    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #10 Russell County (at Cumberland County)    
    
8. Greenwood (14-11) - 3/9 82-72 OT W #8 Allen County-Scottsville, 3/12 71-78 L at University Heights    
Previous Rank: 9    
This Week: 3/17 vs. #2 Warren Central (at Bowling Green)    
    
9) Allen County-Scottsville (13-7) - 3/9 72-82 OT L at #9 Greenwood, 3/11 65-57 W at #14 Cumberland County    
Previous Rank: 8    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #15 Monroe County (at Barren County)    
    
10) Russell County (13-13) - 3/8 37-57 L at #6 South Warren, 3/11 58-53 W #11 Glasgow    
Previous Rank: 10    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #7 Metcalfe County (at Cumberland County)    
    
11) Glasgow (9-14) - 3/11 53-58 L at #10 Russell County    
Previous Rank: 11    
This Week: 3/15 at #5 Barren County    
    
12) Warren East (4-9) - 3/8 54-90 L at #1 Bowling Green    
Previous Rank: 12    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #6 South Warren (at Bowling Green)    
    
13) Russellville (8-9) - 3/11 58-61 L at Owensboro Apollo    
Previous Rank: 13    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #16 Logan County (at Franklin-Simpson)    
    
14) Cumberland County (6-18) - 3/9 76-71 W Green County, 3/11 57-65 L #8 Allen County-Scottsville    
Previous Rank: 14    
This Week: 3/14 vs. #3 Clinton County    
    
15) Monroe County (3-19) - 3/8 56-58 2OT L Adair County    
Previous Rank: 16    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #9 Allen County-Scottsville (at Barren County)    
    
16) Logan County (4-12) - 3/10 45-46 L #17 Todd County Central    
Previous Rank: 15    
This Week: 3/15 vs. #13 Russellville (at Franklin-Simpson)    
    
17) Todd County Central (7-11) - 3/9 82-38 W Foundation Christian Academy, 3/10 46-45 W #15 Logan County    
Previous Rank: 17    
This Week: 3/14 at #4 Franklin-Simpson    

13th District

There is probably no district, not even the 14th, that seems as clear cut who is going to win as the 13th.  Franklin-Simpson went 12-3 on the year, posting the only winning record in the district.  That included a 6-0 district record, with only two of those six wins coming by single digits, and none by less than 8.  The Wildcats saw a seven game win streak stopped by #1 Bowling Green last week, but that should not affect their performance against a Todd County Central team they beat by 16 and 12 points.  They should win the district and advance to their sixth straight region tournament.  Meanwhile, rivals Russellville and Logan County will meet for the other spot.  Russellville won both matchups this year, with the first a 6 point win in overtime before winning by 11 on the road just over a week ago.  Logan County heads into the postseason with poor momentum, losing five in a row, and failing to top 55 points in any of those losses.  That included a loss to Todd County Central, previously winless in district and region play.  They'll have the best player in the matchup in Anthony Woodard, but Russellville, led by Jaquis Todd (15.3 PPG) should reach the region tournament for the first time since falling in the 2017 region finals.

14th District

While Franklin-Simpson is a more prohibitive favorite in their district, it's not because Bowling Green isn't the best team in the region.  The Purples are seeking a record EIGHTH consecutive 14th District title, and are heavily favored for it.  Led by 4th Region POY Isaiah Mason's 17.6 PPG, the Purples didn't lose in region play this season, and won every game by 11 points or more in the region.  They'll get the advantage of hosting district this year as well, as if they needed more things in their favor.  They'll start in the district semifinals, meeting the winner of #6 South Warren and #12 Warren East on Tuesday.  Bowling Green has never lost to South Warren, and they haven't lost to Warren East since 1998.  Win or lose, South Warren will have their best winning percentage in the history of the team, and will finish more than two games over .500 for the first time since their first season in 2010/11.  They fell to Bowling Green by 34 in early February.  In the other district semifinal, #2 Warren Central will meet #8 Greenwood.  Central won their matchup by 22 back in late January, behind 11/26 shooting from the perimeter at home.  The Dragons are young, and can be quite inconsistent, particularly away from home.  If they go cold from three - where Greenwood is likely to push them to shoot from - then Central can easily go down.  Greenwood will have the best player in the game in 1st team all-region selection Cade Stinnett, who averages 20.8 PPG.  They'll be best when the offense flows through him, but the secret key to the game may be Marc Grant.  The leading three point shooter in team history, he went 0/6 from the perimeter in the first matchup, failing to score.  Getting anything from him will change the narrative in this game.  Our prediction is a Bowling Green/Warren Central final, likely to be a rematch in the region final, but Greenwood can easily play spoiler.

15th District

This district has been very up and down with who you'd predict will take home the title.  Preseason, Barren County was the favorite, with Aden Nyekan expected to lead them.  But his season was ended by injury back in January.  Allen County-Scottsville took immediate advantage, winning their first five district games, including a 52-46 win over Barren County.  That clinched the 1 seed in the district for the Patriots, but the tide turned on the road when Barren County won 65-62 in early February.  After that point, the Patriots have gone just 5-4, including a massive 38 point loss to Metcalfe County on March 5th.  Barren County recovered from their loss to the Patriots by winning eight in a row, and surged to a 19-7 record.  The seeding may play a very large part in who comes out of the region, as Allen County-Scottsville earned the right to play Monroe County, who frankly, they should have little trouble with.  Barren County defeated rival Glasgow twice, by 7 and then two points, but anything can happen in a rivalry game.  Ultimately, chalk should prevail by seed, with Allen County-Scottsville and Barren County meeting in the championship game and advancing to region.  Our prediction is that the high seed will win (AC/S) behind their first-team all-region selection Mason Shirley, which will be an upset by our rankings, as ACS enters at #9 while Barren County currently rates #5.

16th District

This year was a bit of a renaissance for the 16th District.  After a few years of it being Clinton County and then everyone else, the district showed some real fight, and place three teams in the top ten of our final rankings.  That is led by Clinton County, which is tied with Barren County for the most wins in the region with 19, but their season will be likely defined by their fantastic run to the All "A" State Championship, knocking off Owensboro Catholic, Murray, and Evangel Christian, before falling to BGP Top Ten team St. Henry in the finals.  The Bulldogs have three players averaging in double figures, led by Nick Delk's 16.6 PPG, earning him third-team all-region honors.  They open with host Cumberland County, who they defeated three times this year by seven, five (in overtime), and 16.  It's tough to beat a team four times in a single year, to say nothing of having to win three of those four on the road.  The prediction here is that Clinton County gets it done and advances, but it is the only 1/4 game where an upset is conceivable.  The other game matches up #7 Metcalfe County against #10 Russell County, but it was Russell County that got the win when the two met on February 2nd, winning 57-40.  The Lakers won that game despite going just 1/15 from three.  Scott Hamm had 21 in that matchup, and the third-team all-region selection will look to do that again.  Metcalfe County had been looking to be peaking, by dropped two in a row last week to close a four game win streak. The Hornets boast four players averaging in double digits,  led narrowly by Peyton Dial's 14.3 PPG.  Dial shoots nearly 38% from three, knocking down 62 of those on the year.  We like their balance to flip the script on Russell County, advancing to the district title game, and pulling an upset over Clinton County to win the 16th.