Hurricane Laura

[nWo]

After this system moves into the Gulf of Mexico the modeling data is suggesting that this may become a hurricane as it inches closer to the U.S. 
Those with interests from Texas to the west coast of Florida should pay attention to this possible storm.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly 
developed Tropical Depression Thirteen, located about 1000 miles 
east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is 
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms over the central 
Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better organized, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days 
when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  This 
system is moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the 
Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress.  Regardless 
of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains 
across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico 
late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

For now the GFS is showing possible landfall around next Thursday.

 

[nWo]

[nWo]

I forgot to put the name of this system in my post this morning. It is Tropical Depression Thirteen. 

[nWo]

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 53.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of 
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north 
of Hispaniola Saturday night. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast 
to become a tropical storm on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

 

 

[nWo]

Friday morning update:

While we are still a few days to a week away. This system is really the one I have the most concern about. We'll have to wait and see if things materialize.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen 
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph       
(33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few 
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near 
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north 
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north 
of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

 

 

 

Please note that the possible track cone is smaller than the one with Tropical Depression 14. So for now, the models are getting a good read on the track of this system.

[nWo]

Tropical Depression 13 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Laura. 

 

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.2 West.  Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a generally 
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected 
over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Laura will move near or over the northern Leeward Islands later 
today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the 
northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

[theguru]

@nWo assuming it came straight through KY like some of those models predict what type/severity of weather would it bring here?

[nWo]

1 hour ago, theguru said:

@nWo assuming it came straight through KY like some of those models predict what type/severity of weather would it bring here?

It's really too early to tell but the but the models are showing wide spread 2-3" of total rain accumulations so far. Now this may change because remnants of both systems could track through Kentucky.

[nWo]

There is now a tropical way off the coast of Africa that I will be watching. While it is way too early to know but this could be the third system to effect the U.S.

[swamprat]

Tropical depression 14 is expected to become Tropical Storm Marco. If both storms become hurricanes, as expected, it will be the first time in history 2 hurricanes have been in the Gulf at the same time. The weirdness that is 2020 keeps on rolling.

 

 

[nWo]

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 65.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning,
near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over
eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

 

 

 

[nWo]

Tropical Storm Laura at this time seems to be the one system that has the best chance to affect our weather here in Kentucky next weekend. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.1 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.  On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto
Rico this evening, near or over Hispaniola tonight, near or 
over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and into the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 48 
hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Some 
strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico 
Monday night and Tuesday. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.  A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas in Puerto Rico 
recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind 
gust to 40 mph (64 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

 

[swamprat]

Does anybody want to go to NOLA for the week, tomorrow? 

 

[sportsfan41]

So I've been meaning to ask this for a day or so now.  nWo, any chance these two systems combine and cause a mess in the midwest?  Or is it more likely they do the opposite, drain each others potential energy and fizzle out shortly after land fall?

[nWo]

Unless something drastic happens I don't see them joining. Marco is forecast to make landfall some time on Monday and Laura not until around Wednesday.