Hurricane Laura

[nWo]

Sunday morning update on Laura:

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 70.9 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola today, be 
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 36 
to 48 hours while Laura moves over or near Hispaniola and Cuba.  
Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico 
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface 
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

[nWo]

Sunday evening update:

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.  A turn toward the northwest is foreast by 
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over 
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.  Laura is 
expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico 
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that 
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near 
the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is 
forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is 
forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft 
data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 

 

[nWo]

Monday afternoon update;

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 80.6 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so.  A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should 
continued through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of 
the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this 
evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. 
Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern 
Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the 
northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. 

NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the 
maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is 
expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and 
Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional 
strengthening forecast on Wednesday. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

 

 

The remnants of Laura look to pas through Kentucky Friday-Saturday.

[nWo]

Tuesday morning update:

Tropical Storm Laura is predicted to gain strength after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. May become a major hurricane by landfall.

 

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  This 
general motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning.  Laura is then forecast to
move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts 
on Wednesday night and move inland near those area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  
Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and 
Laura is now expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

[nWo]

I just checked the latest model data. Laura could approach category 3 hurricane status just before landfall. 

[nkypete]

Laura is sure looking like Hurricane Ike from 2008.  Paths almost identical which means, I guess, that KY-OH-IN is going to see some interesting weather.

[nWo]

Tropical Storm Laura has just been upgraded to a cat. 1 Hurricane.

 

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico today.  Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the
Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and
move inland near those area on Thursday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Significant strengthening is forecast during 
the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at 
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

[nWo]

2 hours ago, nkypete said:

Laura is sure looking like Hurricane Ike from 2008.  Paths almost identical which means, I guess, that KY-OH-IN is going to see some interesting weather.

The Laura's path is pretty close to Ike's. I'll post more on what Kentucky might see later this evening.

[nWo]

Tuesday evening update:

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and Southwest 
Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those 
areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

 

[nWo]

Wednesday morning update:

Laura is forecast to strengthen rapidly today. It may even reach category 4 status.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West.  Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general
motion should continue today, and a north-northwestward motion is 
forecast tonight.  On the forecast track, Laura should approach the 
Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on this evening and move 
inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased 
to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Laura is forecast to 
become a category 4 hurricane today, and is expected to be a major 
hurricane at landfall.  Rapid weakening is expected after Laura 
makes landfall.

Laura is becoming a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend 
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- 
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).

 

The following chart is Laura Model Intensity Guidance. Along the bottom is the forecast hour meaning how far in the future the model predicts. Along the left is the predicted wind speed. Within the next 12 hours Laura is predicted to be a category 4 hurricane.

 

Here is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Speed Chart.

 

Laura is predicted to be a tropical depression when it reaches western Kentucky. Winds could be sustained at around 38 mph with some heavy rains.

 

You can see in this satellite imagery that an eye is starting to form meaning that Laura is gaining strength.

 

Hurricane Laura is rapidly becoming a very dangerous storm and I'm keeping a close eye on what affect this system may bring to Kentucky.

[TheDeuce]

NHC using incredibly strong language, saying storm surge from Laura will be "unsurvivable" in areas of the gulf near landfall. 

[nWo]

36 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

NHC using incredibly strong language, saying storm surge from Laura will be "unsurvivable" in areas of the gulf near landfall. 

Some could see a storm surge upwards to 20 ft.

[nWo]

Tuesday midday update:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING 
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY..

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward 
the north-northwestward and north is expected later today and 
tonight. On the forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper
Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland
within that area tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move 
over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday 
night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday. 

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph 
(205 km/h) with higher gusts.  Laura is a category 3 hurricane on 
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening 
in expected and Laura is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane 
this afternoon.  Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes 
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

 

 

 

 

This is live radar imagery of Laura  

 

 

[nWo]

Laura has just been upgraded to a category 4 Storm.

[swamprat]

140 MPH sustained winds. Yikes!!!!