Coronavirus

[TheDeuce]

19 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

The statistic I have always been most focused on is deaths.  I have said all along that if we could control and minimize deaths using therapeutics, we could open things up even more without the need for a vaccine. The US is the worst in the world on deaths but we had done a great job reducing deaths even as we continued opening things up. However, that is the statistic that is most concerning right now as we watch death rates going up again.

Completely with you here. We don't even have to have a vaccine if we can control the death rate. 

[Voice of Reason]

135,653 in one day. Most countries in the world have reported fewer cases than that for the entire year.

Sweden 162,240

Norway 25,887

[swamprat]

6 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

135,653 in one day. Most countries in the world have reported fewer cases than that for the entire year.

Sweden 162,240

Norway 25,887

Are you suggesting we be more like Sweden? 

[Voice of Reason]

39 minutes ago, swamprat said:

Are you suggesting we be more like Sweden? 

Reporting numbers. I look for facts. The more fact driven and less subjective driven we are, the better.

I have heard many people praise Sweden. There are the numbers side by side with a neighbor. Two very similar demographics. Two very different approaches. There are the numbers. Another fact to point out is numbers are soaring in both countries currently.

[swamprat]

37 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Reporting numbers. I look for facts. The more fact driven and less subjective driven we are, the better.

I have heard many people praise Sweden. There are the numbers side by side with a neighbor. Two very similar demographics. Two very different approaches. There are the numbers. Another fact to point out is numbers are soaring in both countries currently.

Numbers can be subjective if context is left out. Sweden has only performed 1.7 million tests (9.2% positive to test ratio) where the US has performed over 155 million tests (6.5% positive to test ratio). From that context, the US is doing better than Sweden. 

 

[Voice of Reason]

2 minutes ago, swamprat said:

Numbers can be subjective if context is left out. Sweden has only performed 1.7 million tests (9.2% positive to test ratio) where the US has performed over 155 million tests (6.5% positive to test ratio). From that context, the US is doing better than Sweden. 

 

Thanks. So Sweden is worse than the US.

How do they compare to Norway?

[Voice of Reason]

Deaths and death rate are the most important numbers IMO. We all know the US is #1 in total deaths, which the population of the US is going to cause a top ten number there. However, the US is also top ten in death rate per 1M. That number is actually more negative to me than total deaths because it indicates how poorly we are managing COVID.

[Irish Cat]

2 hours ago, swamprat said:

Numbers can be subjective if context is left out. Sweden has only performed 1.7 million tests (9.2% positive to test ratio) where the US has performed over 155 million tests (6.5% positive to test ratio). From that context, the US is doing better than Sweden. 

 

Stats can be whatever you want them to be within the targeted context.  I wish more people understood this.  It should be expected that the US would have way more cases than Sweden or Norway simply based upon population alone.  

[Voice of Reason]

50 minutes ago, Irish Cat said:

Stats can be whatever you want them to be within the targeted context.  I wish more people understood this.  It should be expected that the US would have way more cases than Sweden or Norway simply based upon population alone.  

I agree context is important. However, people also should not discard stats. I agree stats can get twisted but there is always truth in numbers. People who question the numbers, dig deeper for more context like swamprat did and there is truth.

Just for clarification, when I posted the comment about Sweden and Norway, I had zero intent on comparing them to US numbers. 

[Bluegrasscard]

On 11/11/2020 at 10:06 AM, Voice of Reason said:

Thanks. So Sweden is worse than the US.

How do they compare to Norway?

Without know the criteria for the testing - the statistic is not comparable. 

If you test those that have symptoms vs. broad testing without regard symptoms - the positivity rate is not apples to apples.  Layer in multiple testing of the same people and the "rate" (if using the populace as the denominator) is thrown off as well.  A "case" is not a unique, named person - yet the denominator is.  Hence you do not really have a valid "percentage" at all.  Its fake math. 

 

All these ratio of positivity and red, yellow, green methods are flawed since the underlying context of the reason for the tests that are done varies.  These are not controlled samples with like-for-like populations for comparison. 

 

[Bluegrasscard]

Ignoring numbers and stats.  I am seeing increase spread for sure. 

[Voice of Reason]

2 hours ago, Bluegrasscard said:

Without know the criteria for the testing - the statistic is not comparable. 

If you test those that have symptoms vs. broad testing without regard symptoms - the positivity rate is not apples to apples.  Layer in multiple testing of the same people and the "rate" (if using the populace as the denominator) is thrown off as well.  A "case" is not a unique, named person - yet the denominator is.  Hence you do not really have a valid "percentage" at all.  Its fake math. 

 

All these ratio of positivity and red, yellow, green methods are flawed since the underlying context of the reason for the tests that are done varies.  These are not controlled samples with like-for-like populations for comparison. 

 

I am always more concerned with hospitalization/ICU numbers and deaths than the cases, but when we are getting numbers like this the positive tests/new cases cannot be ignored or explained away.

[Bluegrasscard]

8 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I am always more concerned with hospitalization/ICU numbers and deaths than the cases, but when we are getting numbers like this the positive tests/new cases cannot be ignored or explained away.

I love stats.  But the anecdotal says this thing is getting worse in terms of people who actually contract it and even fatalities.  In the spring - hardly any had it much less died.  Now know many who have had it (including son) and two deaths of a couple of degrees of separation.   It still preys on those with other issues it seems while the young shrug it off - for now. 

 

 

[nees1212]

I’ve now seen how quickly it spreads. 3 households (all family) met to watch a football game 2 weekends ago. Everyone was fine the day of the game. 1 started feeling ill the next day and tested posted. 6 of the 10 people have now tested positive with 1 in the hospital.

[TheDeuce]

14 minutes ago, nees1212 said:

I’ve now seen how quickly it spreads. 3 households (all family) met to watch a football game 2 weekends ago. Everyone was fine the day of the game. 1 started feeling ill the next day and tested posted. 6 of the 10 people have now tested positive with 1 in the hospital.

And this is how it is currently spreading.