University Heights vs. Christian County (1/9/2018) Thoughts and Predictions

A Massive game in the 8th District/2nd region between the two teams who are perceived to be the best right now...

Christian County has hit a touch of a skid lately with an embarrassing loss to McCracken County and a tough loss to Paducah Tilghman.

University Heights has won 5 in a row including a VERY impressive win at Madisonville last Friday night in an environment that some folks compared to a regional semi-final. Big crowd. I wasn't able to be there but was at Paducah Tilghman V. Christian County.

I'll have more to add later, but I do worry that Coach Stovall has insisted on pressing against teams that we have no business pressing. I think that might be an effort to scramble the game so Ware can get looks out of the break/not in half court. But I think that's a recipe for disaster against Heights. I think we WANT a half-court game against Heights.

I'll predict UHA 74 Christian County 69 because it's at UHA. I think we get them back on our home court.

I'll also say this. I've been a Grant Shouse critic. I never thought he could get his teams to play defense. But the last 2-3 weeks they've been winning games that have been "grinders". I believe they've held their 4 of their last 5 opponents in the 50's with the one game that they didn't hold in the 50's being Franklin County at 62. Pehaps this is because he finally has a team/starting lineup with a majority of juniors/seniors. (They do start an outstanding freshman in Crump)

If UHA wins tomorrow night it's an uphill battle to catch them in the district with them likely being 4-0 by the end of the week.

Cory Trice being back for County is a game changer for sure. County has relied heavily on Ware to score 30+ every night for them to be able to win ball games and Trice should be able to lighten the load. Cory gives them a very versatile player because of his athleticism and ball handling skills. He can score, run the point, rebound, and defend at pretty good levels. But, I do not know if he is 100% yet.

Heights is way more skilled and talented, but County and that Stovall press is going to be physicality they have not seen yet this season. County is still adjusting to new players and Stovall's style, so I would give the edge to Heights in this round.

If County is to win, they need to use their physicality to their advantage and get Heights into foul trouble. Jaquan Long and Trice have to be able to use their defensive presence to slow the Blazers down. By district I could see County being a tough matchup for the Blazers, but for now I don't see County being able to put up the points to match them unless Ware goes for 50 and makes my analysis useless

Ware and Tandy are going to try and out-do each other...it has the makings of those Mack/Pulley and Hood/Hopson matchups.

UHA 88

CCHS 79

Too much Tandy, UHA by 7.

The interesting thing is that I think this is the first year the "press/physicality" strategy won't work. Teams have tried it and that's when Heights has thrived. Tandy in an up and down game is absolutely unstoppable. Hoptown found out that the only way to stop him is to foul him in that type of game. I think you pack it in and pray they miss. Which is possible because they are known to hurry 3's. But good lord, Tandy is now over 50% on 3's and most of those are stepback/pull ups. I bet he's over 60% when he's wide open...

I think he's reaching the point where he can carry them pretty far. Not just because of him, but because the pieces around him fit pretty well.

I'm hoping we can have ware go off and then UHA fall in love with the 3 and go cold. I think we win in that situation. Pressing/being physical is a bad strategy. Especially at their place.

And I love Cory. Really do. But Kyky lit him up when we tried to put him on him last year. We had to put mason on him last year to slow him down. And Kyky is WAYYY better this year.

I fully expect us to win at home. I just think tomorrow night is bad timing. They are playing well, we've struggled a bit and it's at their place. Our record there over the years is bad. Heck, they even beat us last year at their place. We were better and they worse.

The interesting thing is that I think this is the first year the "press/physicality" strategy won't work. Teams have tried it and that's when Heights has thrived. Tandy in an up and down game is absolutely unstoppable. Hoptown found out that the only way to stop him is to foul him in that type of game. I think you pack it in and pray they miss. Which is possible because they are known to hurry 3's. But good lord, Tandy is now over 50% on 3's and most of those are stepback/pull ups. I bet he's over 60% when he's wide open...

 

I think he's reaching the point where he can carry them pretty far. Not just because of him, but because the pieces around him fit pretty well.

 

I'm hoping we can have ware go off and then UHA fall in love with the 3 and go cold. I think we win in that situation. Pressing/being physical is a bad strategy. Especially at their place.

 

And I love Cory. Really do. But Kyky lit him up when we tried to put him on him last year. We had to put mason on him last year to slow him down. And Kyky is WAYYY better this year.

 

I fully expect us to win at home. I just think tomorrow night is bad timing. They are playing well, we've struggled a bit and it's at their place. Our record there over the years is bad. Heck, they even beat us last year at their place. We were better and they worse.

I think I am buying high on Trice because he is a "Stovall" guy. I think he plans to use Cory like he used Bubba Tandy for 4 years as his designated athlete. (Coincidentally Bubba Tandy is on staff this year for the Cols)

Frankie tried to implement a style that those kids were not used to, Stovall's aggressive defensive style is suited for Cory's skills, but with his injury I don't know how far he can improve in such a short time.

I think the other issue with Trice is that he can’t guard Kyky for 20+ minutes. He will be dead. If we try to put Cory on him for extended periods he won’t be able to finish the game due to fatigue.

Christian County is a bit deeper than UHA, especially with the return of Trice, which means they can afford to press UHA, especially when Crump has the ball.

The UHA key is Quan Hollowell. He has to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor for UHA to give help to Tandy.

The Christian County key is Damikeon Mathis and how well he can control the tempo at point for the Colonels.

Christian County is a bit deeper than UHA, especially with the return of Trice, which means they can afford to press UHA, especially when Crump has the ball.

 

The UHA key is Quan Hollowell. He has to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor for UHA to give help to Tandy.

 

The Christian County key is Damikeon Mathis and how well he can control the tempo at point for the Colonels.

I hope you're right. I just don't think you gain enough pressing UHA by giving up all of the easy baskets they will get. I've heard some coaches say that double teaming Tandy in the backcourt is a REALLY bad mistake as he can dribble out of anything and it creates a 5 on 3. Hoptown found that out quickly and backed off.

I"m very excited about tonight. The last few years when the 8th district wasn't quite as competitive hasn't been as fun. It's really fun knowing that each of these Hoptown/County/UHA games is a a HUGE deal to try and avoid the 2/3 game.

I hope you're right. I just don't think you gain enough pressing UHA by giving up all of the easy baskets they will get. I've heard some coaches say that double teaming Tandy in the backcourt is a REALLY bad mistake as he can dribble out of anything and it creates a 5 on 3. Hoptown found that out quickly and backed off.

 

I"m very excited about tonight. The last few years when the 8th district wasn't quite as competitive hasn't been as fun. It's really fun knowing that each of these Hoptown/County/UHA games is a a HUGE deal to try and avoid the 2/3 game.

But these County players (Long, Trice, Ware) are a bit more experienced in the press than the lineup Hoptown put out there as well. If you have a player or players who can match Tandy in putting up points, then the press can work. CCHS is good enough to push the pace. Eventually, it can/will wear Heights down and they will start reaching. That is the long range strategy anyways.

Heck who here remembers the 2008 UHA Blazers with Hopson and Edmonson. Stovall had a team with a bunch of freshman and sophomores with a losing record (did not even have Hickey yet) and he made the Blazers uncomfortable in region and districts that year. Stovall will have a good long term strategy in place.

But these County players (Long, Trice, Ware) are a bit more experienced in the press than the lineup Hoptown put out there as well. If you have a player or players who can match Tandy in putting up points, then the press can work. CCHS is good enough to push the pace. Eventually, it can/will wear Heights down and they will start reaching. That is the long range strategy anyways.

 

Heck who here remembers the 2008 UHA Blazers with Hopson and Edmonson. Stovall had a team with a bunch of freshman and sophomores with a losing record (did not even have Hickey yet) and he made the Blazers uncomfortable in region and districts that year. Stovall will have a good long term strategy in place.

Yeah... Hot take. This UHA team is better than that one. Basketball was down in district 8 and the region that year. And Edmonson was hurt that entire season...

I've got faith in stovall. I just worry that pressing them gets them into the flow too quickly. And UHA getting off to fast starts is the key for them. I think a grinder is how we win this game.

The great news is, we will be in crunch time of this game in 12 hours.

Yeah... Hot take. This UHA team is better than that one. Basketball was down in district 8 and the region that year. And Edmonson was hurt that entire season...

 

I've got faith in stovall. I just worry that pressing them gets them into the flow too quickly. And UHA getting off to fast starts is the key for them. I think a grinder is how we win this game.

 

The great news is, we will be in crunch time of this game in 12 hours.

Definite hot take..

That UHA team won the All-A State Tournament. With 6'4 PG in Edmonson and 6'8 5 star top 10 McD's All-American in Hopson, I do not think this Heights team could even come close to guarding them in the least bit. Kyky is also carrying the team because of his talent, but Kyky is nowhere near Scotty at this point in time.

This team I don't think can compete at a state level. They have beaten the teams they are supposed to beat, but I do not see them even coming close to the "big boys". And the Region is way down this season. Hoptown was supposed to be the team that would compete at the high level, but they have had many issues and don't look so hot right now. Henderson was right up there until they had their 3 leading scorers transfer. County lost a lot too from a top 10 team in the state. No team in R2 now is even in the top 20 I do not believe.

UHA in 2008 played a pretty tough slate of games and were highly regarded around the state. And district 8 was tougher than you think that year. Hoptown had a really good (albeit inconsistent) team that beat UHA in the regular season and choked away the game in district. Also, Madisonville had Jon Hood...but he did not get to play in the region tournament...actually I do not believe he played in the tournament his Junior or Senior year.

I'll take Christian by 3 points. 78-75

Definite hot take..

 

That UHA team won the All-A State Tournament. With 6'4 PG in Edmonson and 6'8 5 star top 10 McD's All-American in Hopson, I do not think this Heights team could even come close to guarding them in the least bit. Kyky is also carrying the team because of his talent, but Kyky is nowhere near Scotty at this point in time.

 

This team I don't think can compete at a state level. They have beaten the teams they are supposed to beat, but I do not see them even coming close to the "big boys". And the Region is way down this season. Hoptown was supposed to be the team that would compete at the high level, but they have had many issues and don't look so hot right now. Henderson was right up there until they had their 3 leading scorers transfer. County lost a lot too from a top 10 team in the state. No team in R2 now is even in the top 20 I do not believe.

 

UHA in 2008 played a pretty tough slate of games and were highly regarded around the state. And district 8 was tougher than you think that year. Hoptown had a really good (albeit inconsistent) team that beat UHA in the regular season and choked away the game in district. Also, Madisonville had Jon Hood...but he did not get to play in the region tournament...actually I do not believe he played in the tournament his Junior or Senior year.

I'll say this... Scotty HOpson absolutely had a higher ceiling at this point than Kyky does. But I actually think Kyky is a more effective high school player right now than Scotty ever was. He has become a better defender, he's a better ball handler, he's more athletic and he's a beter shooter. He's just shorter. But in the high school game, all of that height doesn't get you as much as it does on the next level.

Scotty got/gets a bad wrap. He was a great kid. But I don't think he "love it" like Kyky Tandy does.

All that to say. Yes, UHA accomplished a lot that season. But in my opinion Christian County is better this year than they were that year. I also think Hoptown is better than the were that year. And I think this UHA team has the ability to be better than that UHA team.

That team was two guys. And in many ways. It was just scotty. Edmonson had a bum foot the entire second half the year and it really hurt them. After those two they had nobody nearly as good as McGowan and Hollowell. Heck, they started two average freshmen.

Anyway. Back to the game tonight. I predict an epic battle. Could be very similar to last year's game at Heights.