Sandman

Then would you be an advocate for shortening the regular season by a week and letting all the teams in the playoffs?

First of all, if 30 years from now anyone is still wearing a state championship ring around anyplace but a reunion or similar function, well I guess we'd all know where they peaked in life. That aside, do the math here for me. How does winning a tournament with as few as 32 teams of similar enrollment participating somehow mean more than winning a tournament with more than 100 teams of similar enrollment participating?

Excellent question.

Interesting second round matchup. Tough one to call, mostly because I'm not sure who's healthy these days for the Colonels. If they are healthy I like them in a pretty close game. if they are still pretty banged up, I'd have to take Johnson Central in a close one.

I look at the score, and the stats and wonder how anybody can make this about the refs? Boone County is 1-21 the last two seasons combined. I understand they've had some adversity, but at 1-21, the last thing I'm doing is blaming a ref.

NKY is a mortal lock to get one. Highlands will win 4A. I really can't imagine a scenario it doesn't happen. I think NKY is closer to getting two than zero titles, as Beechwood and NewCath both have shots. Neither are the favorites, but if things fall the right way in one game for either, you have the area's second title winner. And whoever comes out of NKY in 6A at least has a pretty good chance to make the title game. I can't see any way whichever that school is wins the title game, but you can't win it if you don't get there. My guess is NKY has three schools in the finals, Highlands, NCC, and a 6A school.

I completely agree. That's why I asked if I was missing something. I know Lloyd isn't four scores better than Walton, yet they were that much better than Gallatin. Someone posted Lloyd is banged up and maybe they played Gallatin early enough in the season that everyone was still healthy and they are playing with a different deck now. I think this is a pretty good matchup, in that there is no way I'd pick either team with any confidence. If you twisted my arm, I'd take Walton, but I can't give you a solid reason why.

To PP92, I get that the consensus here is BG is the best team in the state. They may be, and comments from X and T fans do carry some weight with me. I think by saying I used history to determine BG may not be the best team in the state ruffled some feathers and had people ready to proclaim me an idiot. I used history, comparision of schedules, and week in week competition (it's much harder to get up for a big game when you have one every week, as Trinity seems to.) If T wins 6A, I'll probably consider them the best team in the state. That will only be my opinion, if X wins 6A, I'll almost certainly consider BG the best team in the state. That will only be my opinion. To AT, I get your point on the first. It's valid. But, to be honest, a ton of posts are made about players and teams that the poster has never seen. And, frankly, there are a lot of posts made after someone has seen a team, and they still have either no idea what they are watching or are too blinded by their own agenda to make a rational observation. I almost never post if any of the above is true, which is why I admitted up front I haven't seen BG play. And, as a disclaimer, not calling anyone in the thread out on the poster remarks either. To the second, Louisville posters especially T and X posters, usually get my ear and you have it. I hear what you are saying, and I know there are exceptions. But, I'm still in wait and see mode.

History is a better predictor of results in high school football than any other sport is my main point. That aside, I get their are exceptions, and I'm not ignoring the facts of any current team. I know in any given year a school can have a great class and be really good. I doubt they can be best in state good, but it has happened. I'm not taking Trinity solely on history, and actually I'm not necessarily taking Trinity. I don't know who the best team in the state is. I know what the consensus seems to be, but that doesn't mean a whole lot to me. Back to the topic, I'm also saying it may be Trinity based on their schedule. They've lost, but they've lost to another level of teams than BG has played. That goes into account. Highlands has a loss, but it was to a very good team. I took several things into account, history being only one of them. I'm seven posts into what is really a frivolous thread, because there are going to be six state champions so I'm not sure why we care who is the best.

Congrats to Dixie on the win.

I'd say read post 62, and that sums up me using history as a guide when asking if BG is even the best team in the state this year, but I will go a bit further. Obviously, if you did read post 62, you understand my initial premise. X and T have 30 something titles between them, so most year's I'll assume they're better than most teams. Highlands has 20 something titles, so most years they must be pretty good. I get BG is on a roll the last few years, and also know they have historically been a pretty good program. Didn't mean to slight them, though I can't see where I did. Maybe they are the best team in the state, maybe not. I'm not going to decide they are because someone on here told me they are.

Completely correct that I'm not speaking as anyone associated with BG. Thought I came to a relatively easy conclusion though. BG has a lot of choices closer to them than traveling all the way to Cincinnati. And, I think most Cincinnati schools realize they also have plenty of choices available closer than BG. The statement was totally based on geography. Is there something in the works between BG and a Cincinnati school?

On the first, I was being a little sarcastic, and also being honest in that BG may be the best in the state this year, but I haven't seen them. To the second, I think high school football is actually the easiest sport in the world to use history to assess future results. Obvious exceptions do apply, but the same schools keep dominating the state year after year after year after year....

May be of interest to some, this is Moeller's projected road the first three weeks of the playoffs. St. Xavier Elder Colerain and that's just to get to the regional championship game. Talk about running through the gauntlet. Congrats on your 2 seed, now go play the second, third, and fifth ranked schools in the city.

Harbin system is fine. It may not always get the seeds correct (obviously Colerain is far better than a six seeded team), but it does almost always get the right teams in the playoffs. From there, you control your fate. Read further to see why Colerain is a six seed: Colerain and Elder's seeding were both hurt by X having a 5-5 regular season. Colerain was further hurt by Trinity's number of losses. Finally,Colerain did not play either Lakota West or Fairfield, the other two teams from their conference that made the playoffs. If they play and beat West, and Fairfield and Trinity has a normal Trinity type year, they soar to number one in the region. None of that is the Harbin system's fault.

Think this has a chance to be a very good ballgame. One thing that puzzles me is Lloyd easily beating Gallatin County (28-0) early in the season, and Gallatin beating Walton in a close game. I can't see Lloyd being four scores better than the Bearcats so what am I missing as I compare these scores?

Historically I'd take the schools I named in a game with BG and feel okay about it. But, I haven't seen BG play this year. If they are that good this year, great for them. They were pretty good last year as well. No disrespect to the BG program intended here. Win your district, win your class, they are doing both.

If X wins state, then I will totally agree with your assessment. If not, the water gets a little murky. Of course, this is coming from a guy who hasn't seen BG play this year so I may not have the right to post in this thread.

Margin surprises me, as do Barker's numbers. Posted last week I thought CovCath might be the second best team in NKY, but I didn't expect this kind of score. I may have over estimated Conner a little though based on a early season performance with Simon Kenton. Barker's numbers happen to the best of the them, especially if playing against a (perhaps) vastly superior team. Unfortunately for him, UK plays a lot of vastly superior teams in the SEC.

Just as a point of order. I haven't seen the Harbin projections yet, but the D1 playoffs in Ohio have a new format this year. Only two regions, with 16 teams from each region advancing to the playoffs. If Colerain and Moeller meet in week 3 of the playoffs, it would be a regional semi match. If they meet in the regional finals, the winner would advance to the state championship game. Ohio added a seventh division this year as well as changing the format of D1. IMO both were good moves.

Great thread idea, and I've been saying for a while Kentucky in a three class system could produce some incredible playoffs games from week one. I'm not sure how you arrived at your first round matchups, since obviously all the schools didn't play each other. I guess we'd have to go on pure speculation. In NKY, there would be nothing to see in AA as there are no AAA schools, so I'd have to say everyone would wait for the Highlands v CovCath round 2 game, as is now the case. In class A, Beechwood and NCC would be fun to watch at some point. In the meantime, Newport and Bellevue would be a good game as Newport has obviously improved. If Lloyd and Bellevue were paired in a first round contest, that game would garner a lot of interest as well. In AAA, there would be a lot of potentially good early round matchups. Scott playing either Simon Kenton or Dixie would be compelling to a lot of folks in Kenton County. A Simon Kenton v Conner rematch would be a big draw as well. Ultimately whoever came through the gauntlet that would likely end up being Simon, Conner, Dixie and Campbell County would be a heck of a regional, district final.

Easy there Margret, I'll move along at my leisure.

I'll chime in to what is obviously a frivolous thread. Who has declared Bowling Green the best team in Kentucky, and how did they come to that assumption? I haven't seen the Purples play, but I feel safe in saying that Highlands, Trinity, and Male are all better teams in Kentucky than BG. Perhaps that's unfair this year, but if they were to meet, I'd pick all three schools over BG based on year in and year out production. That said, BG would likely have a tough road to hoe against the upper level of Ohio. Ru got it pretty close, IMO, with his breakdown. I'll leave it at that. Thing is, BG isn't going to play any Ohio schools likely ever. It's a haul and a half from here to there for those two locales. Wouldn't comparing them to Illinois, Missouri, Tenn., or even Indiana competition make more sense?

Let's make sure we are clear on this because the bolded is another spin on being wrong. 1. My initial post quoted no one, it was simply a post as a response to the thread title. 1. I never quoted one of your posts from I4, or anyone else, other than posts you made quoting my posts. 1. I made a post, with no quotes, stating I'd have Ryle in the poll instead of Cooper. You then quoted that post and it went from there. The only posts I quoted from you were in direct response to posts you had made to me. That is what transpired between you and I in this thread. It's all there for the world to see, so don't spin this any other way. Kind of feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but I just want to make sure we are clear on the facts. Based on the bolded you're still having trouble with them.

You like to have the last word, I get that. But just so we are clear to the bolded: 1. If we were clear on that after my first post, why walk me down the common opponents and who beat who road? Obviously I had already drawn my own conclusions, and had made them clear. 2. Funny thing is when someone quotes my post, I assume they are talking to me. And you were. Don't hurt yourself with that sudden backpedal move though. 3. Lots of opinions on here about Highlands, and I almost never take exception with them. Same thing with CovCath, Beechwood, NewCath and other schools. Having an opinion is fine. It's all about presentation.