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Possible State Tournament Predictions

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kyhssports

kyhssports

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This was posted on my blog the other day. Thought you all would appreciate seeing it and commenting if you haven't seen it already...

 

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Well we’re about halfway through the regular season, and I’d say it’s high time to do some predictions in terms of your 16 regional champions and even hypothetical state tournament matchups.

 

First of all, I did a random draw to set up the state tournament field. Here’s how the draw went…

 

12th Region vs. 13th Region

11th Region vs. 14th Region

 

9th Region vs. 2nd Region

1st Region vs. 7th Region

 

8th Region vs. 16th Region

15th Region vs. 6th Region

 

10th Region vs. 5th Region

3rd Region vs. 4th Region

 

And now your hypothetical regional champions…

 

1st Region — Marshall County

There’s perhaps no region with a more definitive favorite than the Marshals. They are undefeated in regional play, and outside of a two-point win at Lone Oak, they have not been challenged. Given the right draw, they could do damage at the state tournament, but as you’ll see in our scenario, they will not get that opportunity.

 

2nd Region — Hopkinsville

The Tigers are two points away from having an undefeated season, but they haven’t played enough teams outside of the western part of the state to truly judge how good this team really is. But given that the 2nd region gave us last year’s state champion, one should not count out Hoptown at state.

 

3rd Region — Ohio County

Muhlenberg County started out the season with the preseason accolades, but Ohio County has come on as the regional favorite. The Eagles defeated the Mustangs by two points earlier in the season, and they only have two losses for the whole year. A Tuesday rematch with the Mustangs will test to see if Ohio County deserves to stay in this spot.

 

4th Region — Warren Central

Outside of the 9th region, the 4th might be the most wide open in terms of potential regional winners. Warren Central, Bowling Green, Glasgow, and Clinton County are lead contenders, but Greenwood, Logan County, and Russell County could also be considered. We’ll give the nod to the Dragons because, simply put, the program knows how to win.

 

5th Region — Bardstown

The Tigers made some waves at the King of the Bluegrass, and there’s not many teams in the 5th region which could create enough waves to stay with them. I believe the Tigers will take this region rather easily, though LaRue County, Marion County, and Elizabethtown could complicate things.

 

6th Region — Bullitt East

It’s really a pick ‘em between the Chargers, Moore, Pleasure Ridge Park, and even Jeffersontown, and perhaps even Butler. There’s a lot of depth in the 6th region, and the champion will have to earn their title. I will go with Bullitt East because of their postseason success last season and the fact they have the region’s best player in Derrick Willis.

 

7th Region — Trinity

Ballard is good, and Manual/Central/St. Xavier could win many regions in Kentucky, but I don’t see anyone touching Trinity, now or when it counts. I’m not sure which tournament will be more difficult for Trinity — the 7th region or the state tournament. Each will probably result in a lot of blowout wins.

 

8th Region — Oldham County

The Colonels haven’t been very good lately, but I don’t see enough contenders in the 8th region that could beat the Colonels on a neutral floor. North Oldham, South Oldham, Owen County, Anderson County, Gallatin County, and others all have had decent regular seasons, but none have beaten Oldham County away from home.

 

9th Region — Dixie Heights

There are a host of teams that could come away with this regional crown, from Newport Central Catholic to Covington Catholic to Holmes to Boone County to Covington Holy Cross. But we stick with the Dixie Heights Colonels because of they haven’t done anything to convince me they still aren’t the favorite to win the region, as they were in the preseason. Perhaps a strong performance at the Toyota Classic this week will convince everyone else.

 

10th Region — George Rogers Clark

There’s no hotter team in the state. The Cardinals lost two of their first four games, but they’ve been rolling for the last 18 games, beating some top competition along the way. Montgomery County is their top competition inside the region, and district for that matter, but the Cardinals recently waxed the Indians by 17.

 

11th Region — Madison Central

With Lexington Catholic’s slide as of late, it seems Scott County and Madison Central are the favorites to win the 11th region crown. The Indians have not played the schedule that Scott County has played, but Central has the athleticism on the perimeter and more size in the paint that higher-rated Scott County. Call this one a hunch.

 

12th Region — Pulaski County

They’ve played a very difficult schedule, and it seems to be paying off for the Maroons. A great road win on Friday night across town at Southwestern elevates them back into the role of regional favorite. Keep an eye on East Jessamine however, which had a great weekend and has scored several good victories this season.

 

13th Region — Harlan County

I’m wishing that I could defer this selection until Friday, as the Black Bears face the Bell County Bobcats twice this week in battles of regional titans. The Black Bears have quietly been great this season, losing only two games and running the table in regional wins. Bell County has done the same through the region though…should be a fun week.

 

14th Region — Knott County Central

Here’s hoping that we get a Knott Central-Perry Central regional final, but the Patriots as of now have been the more impressive team. A great performance in the Lexington tournament before Christmas vaulted them into the state rankings, and they haven’t moved since. They have not lost to a team from Kentucky as of yet.

 

15th Region — Johnson Central

There haven’t been too many impressive performances from the 15th region on a larger, state level this season, but Johnson Central seems to have it rolling at this point. The Golden Eagles have won 10 of 12, and during that stretch they’ve defeated Betsy Layne and Sheldon Clark twice. Look for a wide-open and exciting 15th region tournament.

 

16th Region — West Carter

While many will advance Rowan County into this position again on the heels of their state runner-up performance last season, I will go with the Comets. They are 15-3 on the season, winning 14 of 15 games against 16th region teams. They’ve beaten Rowan County in Morehead. No other teams in the 16th jump out at me as potential contenders besides the Comets and the Vikings, though keep an eye on Ashland Blazer.

 

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So, with our champions and the draw we conducted, here’s the state tournament matchups…

 

First Round

Pulaski County vs. Harlan County

Madison Central vs. Knott County Central

 

Dixie Heights vs. Hopkinsville

Marshall County vs. Trinity

 

Oldham County vs. West Carter

Johnson Central vs. Bullitt East

 

George Rogers Clark vs. Bardstown

Ohio County vs. Warren Central

 

Here’s how I see things panning out…

 

Quarterfinals

Pulaski County vs. Madison Central

Dixie Heights vs. Trinity

 

West Carter vs. Bullitt East

George Rogers Clark vs. Ohio County

 

Semifinals

Madison Central vs. Trinity

Bullitt East vs. George Rogers Clark

 

Finals

Trinity vs. Bullitt East

 

State Champion

Trinity

 

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