It's 17 million and I'll be very surprised if he isn't on the 2013 team

 

Cots has it $19m for 2013 so I guess they are wrong but that is still a lot for the Reds to pay him.

Yes he is.

 

So then Arroyo and Latos are both considered quality starters and are equal in your eyes?

^ A huge...HUGE factor in Latos versus Shields or some other top starter - money. Latos is probably going to make around $500K this year. Think about that. A proven #1 or 2 starter for $500K. Is there any other starter in baseball you can say that about? Jurrjens is the closest but he is coming off arm trouble and I believe he is 2 years past Latos in experience and arbitration eligibility. Getting Latos with two dominating years of big league experience at age 24 and under control for the next 4 years ... that is an amazing get by Jocketty. Any time you invest so much in one player, there is a risk because if that player gets hurt you lose a lot. But with the Reds being so close to being a true World Series contender, this move makes sense for now. And with Latos being so young it makes sense for the next 3-4 years as well.

 

Agree and disagree. No question that the price is definitely perfect for the Reds and was probably the top reason for giving so much to aquire him. No way the Reds are a true World Series contender just because they got Latos. They may win their division largely due to the Pujols, Fielder, Braun things but that's as fas as it goes.

Shields is worth less in the market than Latos IMO so you would think the reds could have gotten him for less. Good question though. How much less for Shields? If the Reds could get Shields for Alonso and Volquez ... is that a better deal? I still take the Latos deal.

 

How can you say Shields is worth less in the market? He has proven his worth against the toughest hitting division in baseball. His numbers speak for themselves.

Understood, but just curious as to what the Rays were wanting for Shields.

I like the deal.

 

I'll bet the Rays would have taken the same deal, probably less. The only problem with Shields is he is older. He also has team options for 2013 and 2014 which make him attractive to teams.

Latos is also an emotional guy and an acute fly ball pitcher. First impression would say we gave up too much but time will tell.

Shields is worth less in the market than Latos IMO so you would think the reds could have gotten him for less. Good question though. How much less for Shields? If the Reds could get Shields for Alonso and Volquez ... is that a better deal? I still take the Latos deal.

 

Word is the Reds offered the same package for Shields, and they wanted Mesoraco instead of Grandal, so the Reds looked elsewhere.

How can you say Shields is worth less in the market? He has proven his worth against the toughest hitting division in baseball. His numbers speak for themselves.

 

It's really fairly simple. They are similar pitchers, but Shields costs $28 million over the next three years. Latos will cost at the most, 1/2 of that. Shields best years are probably behind him (he'll be 30 this month), Latos are more than likely in front of him. Shields give up HR's at about 1 1/2 times the rate Latos does. And strikes out less batters. And all of this is with Latos being 24 years old. And Latos has been as good on the road as he has been at Petco.

It's really fairly simple. They are similar pitchers, but Shields costs $28 million over the next three years. Latos will cost at the most, 1/2 of that. Shields best years are probably behind him (he'll be 30 this month), Latos are more than likely in front of him. Shields give up HR's at about 1 1/2 times the rate Latos does. And strikes out less batters. And all of this is with Latos being 24 years old. And Latos has been as good on the road as he has been at Petco.

 

That's not entirely true. While Matos does have good numbers away from Petco his ERA is nearly a half a run higher on the road.

That's not entirely true. While Matos does have good numbers away from Petco his ERA is nearly a half a run higher on the road.

 

Sorry, I was looking at BA, OBP, SLG against, as well as HR's given up.

So then Arroyo and Latos are both considered quality starters and are equal in your eyes?

they are both quality starters but that's doesn't mean they are equal.

Latos career era...

Home-3.11

Away-3.57

I like it ! Latos & Cueto as your one/two !! I think Arroyo wasn't healthy all last year. Hopefully that was a fluke. So Arroyo & Leake as 3 & 4. I'm looking forward to see what Leake gives every 5th day. Bailey or Wood as your fifth. Phillips in the leadoff. Hopefully we can resign him. I'd settle for Heisey in left. I think he deserves the chance. I like it and it's December 18th. I wouldn't be surprised if Cordero came back...

I like it ! Latos & Cueto as your one/two !! I think Arroyo wasn't healthy all last year. Hopefully that was a fluke. So Arroyo & Leake as 3 & 4. I'm looking forward to see what Leake gives every 5th day. Bailey or Wood as your fifth. Phillips in the leadoff. Hopefully we can resign him. I'd settle for Heisey in left. I think he deserves the chance. I like it and it's December 18th. I wouldn't be surprised if Cordero came back...

 

 

Chapman?

Agree and disagree. No question that the price is definitely perfect for the Reds and was probably the top reason for giving so much to aquire him. No way the Reds are a true World Series contender just because they got Latos. They may win their division largely due to the Pujols, Fielder, Braun things but that's as fas as it goes.

 

I didn't say this deal makes them a true World Series contender. I did say they are close and this deal makes them dramatically closer.

 

How can you say Shields is worth less in the market? He has proven his worth against the toughest hitting division in baseball. His numbers speak for themselves.

 

I'll bet the Rays would have taken the same deal, probably less. The only problem with Shields is he is older. He also has team options for 2013 and 2014 which make him attractive to teams.

 

I think you answered your own question with your second post.