April 27, 200818 yr Author I'm going against Big Brown as his odds will be way too low and I'm concerned about only 3 races. He certainly should have a clean trip as the speed. Count me as a Z Fortune fan also. I am also waiting to see Pyro's odds and post as I'm not yet ready to throw him out based on his polytrack dud. I dont understand why people are worried about Big Brown having only 3 lifetime starts. I know a horse hasn't won the Derby in a very long time with only 3 starts, but theres only been like 10 horses to even race in the Derby with 3 starts. Before Barbaro won the Derby in 06, the rule was a horse couldn't win the Derby off a 5 week layoff. Im not saying Big Brown will win the Derby but he is the best horse on paper by far. Not playin Big Brown because he will be 2-1 or 3-1 I understand, but I am not concerned with his inexperience.
April 27, 200818 yr Even discounting the "foundation" factor, with 20 horses and the packed crowd experience counts a lot. Big Brown should be ok on the front but if he's off a step slow he's behind a lot of horses and a lot of bumping is going to go on. Experience will help a lot there. He does appear to be the best horse but to tell the truth I don't know much about the caliber horses he's beat. I think 2-1 or 3-1 is overly ambitions. I believe he will be lower because of the hype. 3-1 I'd have to start looking hard at him.
April 29, 200818 yr I'm bummed about War Pass, I then turned to Pryo but he's fading, and it looks like it's Big Brown's to lose. Still not convinced he has what it takes to win the Derby, and am curious to see the pace without War Pass.
April 29, 200818 yr Author I am feeling a little love for my boy Michael Matz and Visionaire .... Quickslick- Will you be making a large win bet again this year like you did last year, since you only bet once a year?
April 29, 200818 yr Where is everyone sitting at Derby this year? I will be in the Clubhouse section with some pre-party fun at Papa John's Stadium.
April 29, 200818 yr Oh come on! The only REALLY bad thing in Louisville is that basketball team! This will be my 6th Derby in a row and we have a great time in the city. Of course it helps when you get to go to the Crown Royal/Playboy party every year! :dancingpa Can I join you?
April 29, 200818 yr Quickslick- Will you be making a large win bet again this year like you did last year, since you only bet once a year? Good question ..... my gut leads me to believe that I will. However ... even though I like Visionaire ... I haven't gotten "that feeling" just yet. I have saved up my money like I have in the past to do it ... I just haven't gotten to the point where I feel really good about any one horse just yet. Happy Birthday to Barbaro ... he would have "really" turned 5 today.
April 29, 200818 yr Where is everyone sitting at Derby this year? I will be in the Clubhouse section with some pre-party fun at Papa John's Stadium. I'll be in 117. Not sure what box yet though.
April 29, 200818 yr Can I join you? Maybe next year. We had to turn in our list of people in February.
April 30, 200818 yr Author PostPositions for Kentucky Derby 134 Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds 1 Cool Coal Man Julian Leparoux Nick Zito 20-1 2 Tale of Ekati Eibar Coa Barclay Tagg 15-1 3 Anak Nakal Rafael Bejarano Nick Zito 30-1 4 Court Vision Garrett Gomez Bill Mott 20-1 5 Eight Belles Gabriel Saez Larry Jones 20-1 6 Z Fortune Robby Albarado Steve Asmussen 15-1 7 Big Truck Javier Castellano Barclay Tagg 50-1 8 Visionaire Jose Lezcano Micahel Matz 20-1 9 Pyro Shawn Bridgmohan Steve Asmussen 6-1 10 Colonel John Corey Nakatani Eoin Harty 4-1 11 Z Humor Rene Douglas Bill Mott 30-1 12 Smooth Air Manoel Cruz Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20-1 13 Bob Black Jack Richard Migliorie James Kasparoff 20-1 14 Monba Ramon Dominguez Todd Pletcher 15-1 15 Adriano Edgar Prado Graham Motion 30-1 16 Denis of Cork Calvin Borel David Carol 20-1 17 Cowboy Cal John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 20-1 18 Recapturetheglory E.T. Baird Louie Roussel III 20-1 19 Gayego Mike Smith Paulo Lobo 15-1 20 Big Brown Kent Desormeaux Rick Dutrow 3-1
April 30, 200818 yr Why would Big Brown go for the 20 spot... Dumb move IMO. I like the pick. He was left with only five choices and I would much rather have the opportunity to break on the outside and make the first move on my own terms than get jammed against the rail coming out of either the one or two spot.
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