April 30, 200818 yr I like the pick. He was left with only five choices and I would much rather have the opportunity to break on the outside and make the first move on my own terms than get jammed against the rail coming out of either the one or two spot. It's also a bit of arrogance on Dutrow's part, I think. Plus, he probably figures the far outside was good to him in the Florida Derby, so why not here?
April 30, 200818 yr Author I like the pick. He was left with only five choices and I would much rather have the opportunity to break on the outside and make the first move on my own terms than get jammed against the rail coming out of either the one or two spot. :thumb: He is the best/fastest horse in the race. He "cruises" at a very high speed. This way if he breaks bad he doesn't have to worry about another horse on his outside pinching him in. Its a long run to the first turn at Churchill and I look for Big Brown to be positioned nicely, say about 4th or 5th and in the 3 path. Heck, Big Brown could win from the paddock if they wanted to start him there!
April 30, 200818 yr Author It's also a bit of arrogance on Dutrow's part, I think. Plus, he probably figures the far outside was good to him in the Florida Derby, so why not here? :thumb: That post at Gulfstream is horrible and he won from there. Who you liking, Jim?
May 1, 200818 yr :thumb: That post at Gulfstream is horrible and he won from there. Who you liking, Jim? I dig Z Fortune, and I'm hoping his odds swell to more than 20-1. I'll probably put a good-sized WPS bet on him, and also use him in most of my exotics. I also like Tale Of Ekati and Bob Black Jack, but I'm having second thoughts about BBJ. I'll get on Smooth Air if it's a mudder.
May 1, 200818 yr If anyone saw Big Browns start in Florida, I have no problem with the 20 post. I am still heavy for Big Brown!
May 1, 200818 yr Author Z Fortune ran a monster race in the Arkansas but it doesn't seem like he can put two quality starts together, we will see. I do think you will get a nice price on him, and his post position is much more favorable than it was at Oaklawn. I dont see Bob Black Jack getting the distance. He would need to make the lead and set slow fractions, which I just dont see. He did run nice in the SA Derby, but he was looking pretty tired at the 1/8 pole in that one. Tale of Ekati was my BC juvenile pick. He has some great back class and is only 1 of 5 horses with multiple stakes victories. Although he came home slow in the Wood he did get by War Pass who ran well. I think Tale of Ekati is getting overlooked BIG time and could be a nice play at a good price. If Big Brown can get a decent trip I dont see anyone beating him. His numbers are just far better than the rest of the field and the pedigree on his bottom side says he should be able to get the distance. If BB has the lead after 6 furlongs, its over IMO.
May 1, 200818 yr Author I do not like Pyro AT ALL! As of now I don't either. Not just because of his flop in the Bluegrass. His running style is not suitable for the Derby IMO. He is going to need a perfect trip from the back. I think Colonel John will get the first jump and leave Pyro forced too wide. However, he did look great down at the Fairgrounds. Circular Quay did the same last year though and didn't run well in the Derby. I will be looking at how Proud Spell runs in the Oaks to determine my final thoughts on Pyro. They both looked good running down at the Fairgrounds then both flopped on the polytrack at Keeneland. If she runs well in the Oaks, I may consider Pyro.
May 1, 200818 yr I haven't been on Pyro at all even in the Prep. Iam looking for a match with Big Brown for some exacta money and will most likely throw a decent sized tri down, no clue who yet though. I do have a sleeper, Eight Belles! I like her!
May 1, 200818 yr Anyone have any predictions for who they would put in an exacta and trifecta? Here are my Exacta and my tri. I will box both. Big Brown/Gayego/Colonel John exacta box. Big Brown/Gayego/Colonel John/Pyro trifecta box I'm also going to play Colonel John WPS, hoping to beat the "unbeatable" Big Brown.
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