3 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

I don’t know if I have the time to meet your challenge of what teams to specify

Spit ball it!!  I don't understand the reluctance. 

Just now, theguru said:

Spit ball it!!  I don't understand the reluctance. 

Ha, you know me, I don't do ANYTHING without the research!

5 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

As for what would happen to certain teams moved up, South Warren went to the state title game their first year in 6A. Gave Trinity by far their best game in the postseason. Bowling Green regularly has competed with and beaten St. X. I don’t understand the sentiment that these schools would have no shot. 

South Warren is awesome but they are a 6A team and they still are a long way off from beating Trinity.

As for Bowling Green, Deuce Bailey is gone and being competitive with X still isn't the top of the mountain. 

And, in both cases, you are using the extreme, maybe they have a chance teams, but what about all the rest of the teams that get caught up in the fray?

2 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

Ha, you know me, I don't do ANYTHING without the research!

?

31 minutes ago, theguru said:

South Warren is awesome but they are a 6A team and they still are a long way off from beating Trinity.

As for Bowling Green, Deuce Bailey is gone and being competitive with X still isn't the top of the mountain. 

And, in both cases, you are using the extreme, maybe they have a chance teams, but what about all the rest of the teams that get caught up in the fray?

But the whole point is that you are moving the outliers.  I'm not sure what teams we're talking about getting caught in the fray.  The best teams move up, the worst move down.  Maybe the worst go on to win in the lower class and move back up.  Or else others continue to move up.  Over time, teams would find the appropriate levels.  I could see capping how high a team can go, so that a 1A school by enrollment doesn't end up in 6A.  But I think it's being overplayed about the fray.  Teams would find their levels, and if they were terrible, they'd sink back down.

I have always felt one reason the four class system helped produce less "sameness" in terms of who was winning is because there was greater potential for upsets in earlier rounds.  I believe something like this would help achieve the same in the six class system.  Now, I'll grant you, the last decade of four class, Trinity, X, and Male dominated it.  But before that, while those teams won their share and were near the top, it wasn't always, and there was great variety in the finals.  If programs that were actually capable of playing with them or at least pushing them, not solely based on enrollment, were around in the highest class, perhaps you wouldn't see this same hold.  I certainly believe it has a greater chance of success than doing nothing at all.  Nothing at all has given us three teams accounting for 25 of 38 title game spots in 6A during the six class system, and many of those gap years were only because two of them couldn't meet in the final (like this year).  All but two of the titles as well.

19 hours ago, Calico Jack said:

First, let me say this clearly: I’m "Success multiplier or Bust". 

A move from the archaic, outdated, antiquated ways of doing things? Absolutely

I understand the intent behind it. When the same programs keep showing up late in November and December, people naturally ask, “Who would this apply to?”

If we’re strictly answering that question—based on recent sustained success—you’re obviously talking about programs like Christian Academy–Louisville, Boyle County, Raceland, Beechwood, and Bowling Green—programs that have either won multiple state titles or played in multiple championship games over a short window.

Those are the names that would get flagged. No mystery there.

But here’s where I start to pause—not because those programs don’t win, but because the real question isn’t who’s winning… it’s why they’re winning.

And this is also where the success multiplier gets really tricky—especially once you hit 6A.

Because what exactly do you do with 6A programs?

There’s nowhere to move them. No higher class. No clean solution. So now you’ve built a system where the “penalty for success” applies unevenly depending on class size. That alone should make us slow down.

The only way a true success-based model works long-term is if you let it play out over time—cream rises to the top style. And if you do that, whether people want to admit it or not, you eventually end up with something that looks an awful lot like an Open Division… or what I laid out months ago as a Division 1 concept.

And honestly? That might not be a terrible idea—if it’s done intentionally and transparently.

But here’s why I’m still much more in favor of population density and demographic factors as the primary driver—similar to Florida’s Urban, Suburban, and Rural classifications.

Because Kentucky’s imbalance problem isn’t really about trophies.

It’s about environment.

Two schools can have the same enrollment and live in completely different realities:

• different population density

• different feeder systems

• different access to  participation

• different depth and margin for error

A rural program can be a good—well coached, disciplined, tough—and still not have the same ecosystem as a suburban or metro school. That doesn’t make one “better.” It makes them different.

And this isn’t some brand-new idea—we’re watching the same debate happen right now at the college level.

The Power Four vs Group of Five discussion is basically the same argument in a different uniform.

Programs like Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are good football programs. Anyone who knows the game understands that. They’re well coached. They develop players. They win games.

But they also operate in a different ecosystem—and they have zero structural path to the same ceiling. That doesn’t make them bad. It just means the system acknowledges reality.

High school football is no different.

Bad programs are still going to be bad—no matter what multiplier you use.
What we’re really talking about is how to classify good programs fairly without sending the message: “Congrats on doing everything right—now here’s your "punishment".”

"I'm NOT Success Multiplier or Bust."

19 hours ago, theguru said:

So you would move those five schools, any others?

IF a success multiplier were used & a guideline of "making it to the state finals"?

Using every 2 years? Add these to the list.

Owensboro Catholic

Trinity (but, again, that's the conundrum, for now...where would they go? Which is why, as I've stated, I don't think the success multiplier is the way to go for KY until that path was sorted out)

 

Using every 4 years? Add these also to the original list.

Mayfield

Pikeville

Cooper

 

Thoughts. 
 

Kentucky high school football currently operates on a 6-class system (1A through 6A). To create a 5-class system using KHSAA data, we have to redistribute the approximately 220–225 football-playing schools to ensure balanced competition and logical enrollment breaks.

Based on recent KHSAA male enrollment averages (grades 9–12), here is a projected 5-class alignment.

 

Proposed 5-Class Alignment

 

This model distributes schools by "averaging out" the current 6-class system, generally aiming for roughly 44–45 schools per class.

| Class | Male Enrollment Range | Representative Schools |

|---|---|---|

 

| Class 1A | 0 – 210 | Pikeville, Beechwood, Raceland, Mayfield, Kentucky Country Day |

 

| Class 2A | 211 – 350 | Owensboro Catholic, Lexington Christian, Murray, Belfry, Danville |

 

| Class 3A | 351 – 540 | Central, Corbin, Paducah Tilghman, Boyle County, Franklin County |

 

| Class 4A | 541 – 850 | Highlands, Covington Catholic, Bowling Green, South Warren, Owensboro |

 

| Class 5A | 851+ | Trinity, St. Xavier, Frederick Douglass, Male, Ballard, Lafayette |

 

 

 

Key Changes from the Current 6-Class System

Moving to five classes significantly alters the competitive landscape:

 * The "Small School" Merge: Class 1A would absorb the top end of the current 1A and the bottom half of the current 2A. This would place traditional 1A powers like Pikeville in more frequent contact with 2A stalwarts like Mayfield.

 * The Middle Class Consolidation: The current 3A and 4A classes see the most disruption. Schools like Boyle County (traditionally 4A) would likely sit at the top of a new Class 3A, creating a "Super 3A" that is incredibly deep with talent.

 * The "Elite" Class 5A: Class 6A currently consists of the 32 largest schools. In a 5-class system, this expands to roughly the 45 largest schools. This would bring high-enrollment 5A schools like Southwestern and Pulaski County into the same class as the Louisville giants (Trinity/St. X).

Why Use 5 Classes?

While Kentucky has used 6 classes since 2007, many fans and coaches argue for a reduction because:

 * District Size: Several 1A districts currently have only 3 or 4 teams, making the regular season less meaningful.

 * Playoff Quality: A 5-class system ensures that 4-team districts are the minimum, making the path to a state championship more rigorous.

 * Travel: With more schools per class, the KHSAA could draw tighter geographic districts, reducing travel costs for smaller programs.

 

Class 6A:  32 largest schools

Class 5A: 64 schools

Class 4A: 64 schools

Class 3A: 64 schools

Class 2A: 63 schools

Class 1A: 63 schools

Private Double A: 16 schools

Private Single A: 32 schools

 

Alabama just voted to separate public and private schools. I didn't realize Alabama had that many schools. I don't understand the 32 for largest class. I guess if did that in Kentucky only would have around 16 teams in largest class. I see a lot in social media in Kentucky of people wanting to separate public and private schools. I wonder if KHSAA ever caves into that pressure. 

1 hour ago, Tigerpride94 said:

 

Class 6A:  32 largest schools

Class 5A: 64 schools

Class 4A: 64 schools

Class 3A: 64 schools

Class 2A: 63 schools

Class 1A: 63 schools

Private Double A: 16 schools

Private Single A: 32 schools

 

Alabama just voted to separate public and private schools. I didn't realize Alabama had that many schools. I don't understand the 32 for largest class. I guess if did that in Kentucky only would have around 16 teams in largest class. I see a lot in social media in Kentucky of people wanting to separate public and private schools. I wonder if KHSAA ever caves into that pressure. 

I do on the largest schools because they are just that, large.  I would do the same in KY.

And this one is for anyone, how many private schools are there in KY that play football?  I think this is often the missing piece of information when suggesting a public/private split. 

It would be almost impossible to do private/public in KY. There aren’t enough private schools that are 5A or higher and certainly no private school at any level, other than St X (maybe Cal) that could even compete with Trinity. 

3 hours ago, Tigerpride94 said:

 

Class 6A:  32 largest schools

Class 5A: 64 schools

Class 4A: 64 schools

Class 3A: 64 schools

Class 2A: 63 schools

Class 1A: 63 schools

Private Double A: 16 schools

Private Single A: 32 schools

 

Alabama just voted to separate public and private schools. I didn't realize Alabama had that many schools. I don't understand the 32 for largest class. I guess if did that in Kentucky only would have around 16 teams in largest class. I see a lot in social media in Kentucky of people wanting to separate public and private schools. I wonder if KHSAA ever caves into that pressure. 

How many private schools are there in KY?

The only thing in this thread that has any merit for me is go to 5 classes. That has been my thought for a long time on the best number of classes for KY.

7 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

The only thing in this thread that has any merit for me is go to 5 classes. That has been my thought for a long time on the best number of classes for KY.

If KY went to five classes I would still be for making both 5A and 1A 32 teams and then spread the rest of the teams out evenly between 2A, 3A, and 4A.

30 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

How many private schools are there in KY?

These are all 55 of the private schools that are current KHSAA members. There are more private high schools in the state that are not KHSAA members, too. I've bolded the 16 schools that have football programs, currently.

Assumption
Beth Haven
Bethlehem
Bishop Brossart
Calvary Christian
Christian Academy of Louisville
Christian Fellowship
Community Christian (Paducah)
Community Christian Academy (Independence)
Cornerstone Christian Academy
Covington Catholic
Covington Latin
Danville Christian Academy
David School
DeSales
Evangel Christian
Foundation Christian Academy
Francis Parker School (Formerly Saint Francis School)
Frankfort Christian Academy
Heritage Christian Academy (Hopkinsville)
Heritage Academy (Florence)
Highlands Latin School
Holy Cross (Covington)
Holy Cross (Louisville)
June Buchanan School
Kentucky Country Day School
Lexington Catholic
Lexington Christian Academy
Louisville Collegiate
Mercy Academy
MHG Preparatory Academy
Model Laboratory School
Newport Central Catholic
Notre Dame Academy
Oneida Baptist Institute
Owensboro Catholic
Piarist
Portland Christian
Presentation Academy
Red Bird Christian
Riverside Christian
Rose Hill Christian
Sacred Heart Academy
Saint Henry
Saint Mary
Saint Patrick
Saint Xavier
Sayre School
Somerset Christian
Trinity (Louisville)
Trinity (Whitesburg)
Trinity Christian Academy (Lexington)
University Heights Academy
Walden School (Louisville)
Whitefield Academy (Kentucky)