1 hour ago, MBKT said:

In what universe???

I can dream!

I want to pile on what @DevilMayCare and @Voice of Reason has stated, Can 5A Dist 6 get a clean sweep of Dist 5, with NKY coming out on top??  I see this as a very big possibility....

Plus it gets another home game for the Birds if it happens....

16 hours ago, DragonFire said:

Saying that we already know the higher seed is going to win in over 70% of the games beyond a doubt is not the flex you think it is. And that's assuming that you are correct on all of these as truly in doubt.  A few local ones jump out at me immediately as "absolutely no chance" that you listed -

Barren County/Henderson County - Henderson County is going to win and win decisively. Beyond the entire lack of playoff success Barren County has shown, including getting throttled by Henderson County just two years ago, Henderson County beat Central Hardin by 31, a team Barren County lost to, resulting in them ending up in this game at all.

Madisonville/Bowling Green - Beyond what we really know of these teams (one being a state title contender and the other being Madisonville) - they have two common opponents in Owensboro and Apollo.  Bowling Green beat Owensboro by three touchdowns and Madisonville lost to the Red Devils.  Bowling Green put a running clock on Apollo, and Madisonville and Apollo were tied going into the fourth quarter in a game Madisonville won by a touchdown.  Don't be surprised if Bowling Green running clocks them.

Glasgow/Union County - Glasgow has the name and history, so this likely was a reputation choice, I assume.  This is one of the worst Glasgow teams I recall.  There aren't common opponents for me to point to, but I will note these two do have recent playoff history, and Union County beat them by four touchdowns just two years ago.  Union County's win over Greenwood is better than absolutely every one of Glasgow's, and they won it comfortably. 

I would speculate that two of these may go running clock, if not all three.

Saying 30% of round 1 games are possible upsets is the EXACT flex I am making. Those underdogs deserve the chance. Even the ones that are highly unlikely. Barren County, MNH and Glasgow deserve a chance to win a playoff game. That is my flex, the point I make on here annually.

My fix for the no chance matchups is this. Keep the playoffs as is with one tweak. You need 2 wins to qualify for the playoffs. If you don't have 2 wins, you don't qualify and your round 1 opponent gets a bye. That is it.

3 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Saying 30% of round 1 games are possible upsets is the EXACT flex I am making. Those underdogs deserve the chance. Even the ones that are highly unlikely. Barren County, MNH and Glasgow deserve a chance to win a playoff game. That is my flex, the point I make on here annually.

My fix for the no chance matchups is this. Keep the playoffs as is with one tweak. You need 2 wins to qualify for the playoffs. If you don't have 2 wins, you don't qualify and your round 1 opponent gets a bye. That is it.

I don't get primed for this argument in general, it's more just my observation.  What I am saying that what you were laying out as these are the only ones with a shot, I don't think that's an effective argument, particularly since I don't even agree that all the ones you listed are even in doubt.  When you can say with absolute certainty that 70% of the games are a foregone conclusion, that is not the sign of a healthy system.  I'm not trying to take away earned chances for the playoffs.  But I do chafe some at people trying to act like there's no issue with the system. The arguments about basketball and baseball and the like are always hollow (which you didn't make, just noting a common argument).  Those are not the same level of physical sports and district tournaments in those sports don't carry the same level of travel.  Some of these teams being charged money to forfeit because they have no desire to travel hours to get their heads caved in by a physically dominant team doesn't make sense to me. 

I imagine there's more than 70% that if I really tried to comb your list, so it's likely several percentage points higher that are certain.

The lower seed won around 18% of the first round games last year.  17 out of 96 games (including the forfeits which naturally, would have been wins).  One four seed won.  Of the 17, only McCracken County advanced to round 3.  Only two other teams (Metcalfe County and Glasgow) managed to stay within single digit margins, and in total, the average margin in the second round games from these teams was a 27 point loss.  The implication there being that in general, those teams that managed to advance likely did so because their district was simply that much superior to the other one, and when they redirected to playing their same district again in the second round, they were crushed.

Excluding the forfeits, there were 75 games played where the higher seed won.  Four of them were decided by single digits (5.3%) and an addition five were by 19 or less. The average margin of victory was just shy of 38 points, meaning on average, they resulted in a running clock. Counting the games where the lower seed won, 92 games in all were played, and average margin of victory in those games was a hair under 35 points.

Each of those last two paragraphs is a bit of "draw your own conclusion" but I think it helps take in the breadth of competitiveness in the round.  As for what I would do - I would return to the four class system and keep four teams making the playoffs.  Blowouts are going to happen still, but historically it has been shown there were fewer, there were definitely more upsets that took place, and frankly almost every round featured more competitive games than the six class system.  And everyone would have passed a threshold for having earned their way in, be it having won two games as VoR suggests, or having beaten district opponents, and so on.  It's never going to happen because it's clear the KHSAA will never do this, but it is clear to me now as it was back then that the four class system was a vastly superior product. 

 

I could not agree more.

4 classes vastly superior to this watered down version. But because little Johnnie or little Sally didn’t make the playoffs we had to go to this version.

I expect Dixie and Woodford to be the most competitive 1/4 game in the state this week.

1 hour ago, DragonFire said:

I don't get primed for this argument in general, it's more just my observation.  What I am saying that what you were laying out as these are the only ones with a shot, I don't think that's an effective argument, particularly since I don't even agree that all the ones you listed are even in doubt.  When you can say with absolute certainty that 70% of the games are a foregone conclusion, that is not the sign of a healthy system.  I'm not trying to take away earned chances for the playoffs.  But I do chafe some at people trying to act like there's no issue with the system. The arguments about basketball and baseball and the like are always hollow (which you didn't make, just noting a common argument).  Those are not the same level of physical sports and district tournaments in those sports don't carry the same level of travel.  Some of these teams being charged money to forfeit because they have no desire to travel hours to get their heads caved in by a physically dominant team doesn't make sense to me. 

I imagine there's more than 70% that if I really tried to comb your list, so it's likely several percentage points higher that are certain.

The lower seed won around 18% of the first round games last year.  17 out of 96 games (including the forfeits which naturally, would have been wins).  One four seed won.  Of the 17, only McCracken County advanced to round 3.  Only two other teams (Metcalfe County and Glasgow) managed to stay within single digit margins, and in total, the average margin in the second round games from these teams was a 27 point loss.  The implication there being that in general, those teams that managed to advance likely did so because their district was simply that much superior to the other one, and when they redirected to playing their same district again in the second round, they were crushed.

Excluding the forfeits, there were 75 games played where the higher seed won.  Four of them were decided by single digits (5.3%) and an addition five were by 19 or less. The average margin of victory was just shy of 38 points, meaning on average, they resulted in a running clock. Counting the games where the lower seed won, 92 games in all were played, and average margin of victory in those games was a hair under 35 points.

Each of those last two paragraphs is a bit of "draw your own conclusion" but I think it helps take in the breadth of competitiveness in the round.  As for what I would do - I would return to the four class system and keep four teams making the playoffs.  Blowouts are going to happen still, but historically it has been shown there were fewer, there were definitely more upsets that took place, and frankly almost every round featured more competitive games than the six class system.  And everyone would have passed a threshold for having earned their way in, be it having won two games as VoR suggests, or having beaten district opponents, and so on.  It's never going to happen because it's clear the KHSAA will never do this, but it is clear to me now as it was back then that the four class system was a vastly superior product. 

 

Here is where I come from on all of this. The focus is on the kids. Football is over for almost all after high school. I want as many life experiences as possible for as many kids as possible. I choose life experiences for kids over entertaining football games for everyone else. Much is learned in losing as well as winning. More games for the kids is better. That is why I want all teams in the playoffs. 

As you said, blowouts happen in every system. We see blowouts in semifinal games. A lot of blowouts happened in the four class system. There is no fix for blowouts.

Let the kids play as many games as possible. It is a short time period in their lives. That is the bottom line.

19 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Let the kids play as many games as possible. It is a short time period in their lives. That is the bottom line.

Well said.

Little Johnny and Sallie take a lot of heat on these forums, but I think in reality it's actually Little Johnny's coach and administrator that we are appeasing.

1 hour ago, burreaux said:

I expect Dixie and Woodford to be the most competitive 1/4 game in the state this week.

I am not thinking so this year, I think that ship sailed last year. 

4 minutes ago, theguru said:

I am not thinking so this year, I think that ship sailed last year. 

Is '24 Woodford 46 points better than '23 Woodford? I'm not sure about that. Woodford's schedule is much softer than Dixie's. I wouldn't guarantee a Dixie victory, but Dixie winning wouldn't be impossible to imagine like some of these other 1/4 games will be.

6 minutes ago, burreaux said:

Is '24 Woodford 46 points better than '23 Woodford? I'm not sure about that. Woodford's schedule is much softer than Dixie's. I wouldn't guarantee a Dixie victory, but Dixie winning wouldn't be impossible to imagine like some of these other 1/4 games will be.

I think Woodford was much better last year than the score indicated.  Dixie was hot and things went their way.  Furthermore, this Dixie team is not near as good as the one from last year.  I like Woodford.

3 hours ago, burreaux said:

I expect Dixie and Woodford to be the most competitive 1/4 game in the state this week.

If so that means Woodford is not very good.

10 hours ago, Unrivaled97 said:

Post of the year!!! ? #BigThings

Bottom if you just want teams in the tournament that can compete at a championship level you’re only going to have a 3 or 4 team field. Maybe just one in 5A but winning a playoff game or maybe even winning a region are things these kids will never forget. And I’m not big on taking these highlights away from these kids. 

I understand the argument here, and if you go north across the river you will see the OHSAA has 1 upped KY in that 64 teams get into the playoffs in each division now. So you regularly have teams with 2 or 3 wins making the playoffs as a 16 seed and getting blown out by a 10-0 1 seed team. 4 regions per division, 16 teams make it in each region, 7 divisions in Ohio. It has definitely watered down the accomplishment of qualifying for the playoffs over there.