Strong Storms Possible late Tuesday into Wednesday to end November

[nWo]

GFS guidance continues to show a potent large-scale trough digging south across the western U.S. on Monday then start moving eastward across the Plains towards Kentucky on Tuesday. When this occurs, strong southerly winds will bring warm moist gulf air into sections of Kentucky late on Tuesday. Temperatures and dewpoints will rise into the low to mid-60s late Tuesday evening. A line of showers and storms will break out ahead of the trough. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, especially in western sections of Kentucky.

The following simulations will show what possibily occur Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday.

Trough

 

Temperatures

 

Dew Points

 

This show the showers and possible strong storms that will breakout ahead of the trough.

 

The EHI shows the potential conditions that could allow strong to severe storms to develop. As of now the conditions are not really strong but I will be watching it closely. 

 

The timing and possible strength of any storms that could develop are still uncertain but I will be watching and post updates as we move closer.

 

[nWo]

I will post a more detailed update later today. As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has western Kentucky in a level 2 Slight Risk Area. A level 1 Marginal Risk Area extends to just west of I-65. 

 

[nWo]

Sunday afternoon update.

While there is still some uncertainty on how strong this event could be, those in western and southcentral Kentucky could be seeing some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into the early morning hours on Wednesday. 

let's look at the setup. The trough appears that it will  move further south as it deepens. This will help increase the chance for storms. The southwesterly winds will bring gulf moisture into portions of Kentucky. Along the leading edge of the trough a cold front will move in easterly across the country. As the cold front moves towards Kentucky showers and thunderstorm will break out ahead of the front. One thing that may help hold down the intensity of the storms is the capping we will see in western Kentucky. Timing will  be key because this cap will not allow the thunderstorms to grow. So most  severe storms should hold off until after 11 pm EST. After this time, the cap is forecast to start to give way and this will give us the late night severe weather chances. The severe weather components could be damaging winds, cloud to ground lightning and tornadoes. This set-up is forecast to cause a tornado outbreak in portions of western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, northwest Louisiana and western Mississippi.

One thing to note. After the cold front passes, some along the Ohio River could see some snow showers.

Trough

Dew point

 

This map shows the cap

 

Simulated Rada

 

The 6 hour lightning strike map(6 hours between frames). This shows the lightning from the possible storms. 

 

I will be posting another update tomorrow. 

[nWo]

Monday morning quick update.

 The severe threat has increased some from yesterday. Wind damage and a few tornadoes are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the threat areas in Kentucky. The level 2 Slight Risk Area now stretches to just south east of Bowling Green. The level 1 Marginal Risk Area now covers portions of Kentucky just west of I-75. I will post an update later today.

[nWo]

It appears there will be a significant tornado outbreak for those in mid to lower Mississippi Valley.  Significant and/or long-track tornadoes will be possible.

[nWo]

I've seen in some weather discussions about this possible event, Some talk about this setup being similar to December 10, 2021 setup. As everyone knows that setup produced the historic tornado outbreak last year. One thing to note. It it  further south that last year's event. So I'm watching it closely to see if I see any signs that it is shifting northward. 

[Jumper_Dad]

On 11/28/2022 at 7:41 AM, nWo said:

I've seen in some weather discussions about this possible event, Some talk about this setup being similar to December 10, 2021 setup. As everyone knows that setup produced the historic tornado outbreak last year. One thing to note. It it  further south that last year's event. So I'm watching it closely to see if I see any signs that it is shifting northward. 

Looking through this thread, I was wondering about the similarities to last year. Praying nothing like that forms this weeks.

[TheDeuce]

10 minutes ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Looking through this thread, I was wondering about the similarities to last year. Praying nothing like that forms this weeks.

In addition to what nWo said, the biggest difference from last year is that there won't be near the amount of "fuel" at the surface as there was for last years event. There is plenty of wind energy, but not as much heat and humidity. 

[nWo]

7 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

In addition to what nWo said, the biggest difference from last year is that there won't be near the amount of "fuel" at the surface as there was for last years event. There is plenty of wind energy, but not as much heat and humidity. 

The area being mentioned was around the mid Mississippi Valley. 

[TheDeuce]

7 minutes ago, nWo said:

The area being mentioned was around the mid Mississippi Valley. 

It does look like it will be rough down there. The overnight timing makes it that much worse.