Multiple rounds and areas of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area today into this evening -- both in the form of cold-frontal and prefrontal bands  aligned roughly parallel to the cold front, and a blend of discrete cells and clusters in the weakly capped warm sector.  Damaging to isolated severe gusts, a marginal overall tornado threat, and isolated severe hail are possible across a large swath from the Gulf Coast across the Ohio Valley.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 2 Slight Risk Area to include a large swath of Kentucky.

 

 

 Modeling date is predicting that conditions will be favorable for the formation of thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.  Relatively strong low and deep layer shear profiles will promote organized storm structures including bowing structures and supercells. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, along with a few tornadoes.  This activity will move into eastern KY and southern Ohio this evening before encountering a more stable air mass and weakening.

 

A mesoscale discussion has been issued for the portions of Kentucky covered by the level 2 Slight Risk Area. This is a precursor to the issuance of  a possible severe weather watch. 

 

An uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible through mid afternoon. A conditional threat of severe exists, contingent on storm intensification. Damaging gusts would be the primary threat, and a couple of tornadoes would also be possible. Convective trends will continue to be closely monitored for the need of a WW issuance.