BGP Severe Weather Alert Day (4/06/2022)

[nWo]

The BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for today continues. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and several tornadoes are expected. I was hoping the threat of strong tornadoes would die down, but it hasn't. The threat area has widened to include more of southeast Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 2 Slight Risk Area westward to just east of Bowling Green. Northward to around Mt. Sterling and eastward to include all of southeast Kentucky. A level 1 Marginal Risk Area covers most of the rest of Kentucky. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the level 3 Enhanced Risk Area expanded into portions of southern and southeastern Kentucky later this morning.

 

 

Ongoing thunderstorms along a cold front will move into Kentucky during the day. Moisture will gradually increase from the mid-50s to the low 60s. Dew points in the mid to upper 50s are expected as far north as northern Kentucky ahead of the front. That and other conditions near to just off the cold front may support a mix of supercells and bowing segments. Model guidance up to around 10,000 ft. show conditions that will support a tornado threat with any discrete cells. This threat will last into the overnight hours. 

I'm using the NAM 3Km model this morning because it is a higher resolution than the NAM model. The period covered is from 2 pm to 1 am EDT.

Radar

EHI

Supercell

 

Significant Tornado

 

The SARS Sounding is showing the possibility of EF-3+ tornadoes in portions of southern and southeastern Kentucky. Damaging wind and severe hail up to around quarter size(1") are also possible. 

 

I will be monitoring this situation throughout the day. Updates will be posted as new information is available. People should be going over their emergency action plan this morning to be prepared if the impending severe weather enters your area.