Potential Severe Weather the Middle of Next Week.

[nWo]

A deep upper low and associated intense upper trough over the Plains and upper Midwest will develop eastward across much of the central United States. A strong cold front is forecast to advance east southeast across the country. Model guidance indicates adequate moisture dew points in the mid-60s will be available ahead of the front across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will warm in the mid-70s to low 80s. Winds will be gusting from 30-50 mph ahead of the line of storms.  Here are the maps to show what I've posted so far.

 

Upper-level trough

 

Dew Points

 

Temperature

 

Winds

 

Rain

 

Now let us take a look at the severe weather model guidance. The EHI is showing plenty of potential energy for the line of showers to tap into.

 

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Surface base supercell storm composite

 

 

As everyone can see this system needs observation. I post this because this has been shown on the last four GFS Model runs. I will post updates as the information comes in. 

 

[sportsfan41]

I'm ready for some steady warmth NWO.  How long until we get a week of highs in the 70's you think?

[nWo]

6 hours ago, sportsfan41 said:

I'm ready for some steady warmth NWO.  How long until we get a week of highs in the 70's you think?

I just checked some of the model guidance. I wouldn't expect continual highs in the 70s to around the end of April or in May. Actually, we have shot at some light snow the weekend of April 8th-10th.

[nWo]

The possible severe weather threat continues from Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

 

Now let's look at the setup as it is being shown now by the model guidance. 

A warm front will lift northward. Winds will be south/southeasterly behind the front temperatures could reach the mid-70s by Wednesday afternoon. The counterclockwise spin of the low will lift the warm front to the north. A cold front will then cross eastward across Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Showers and storms will break out along and in front of the front.  This will place portions of Kentucky mainly east of I-65 in the warm sector. 

The Theta-e map shows south/southeasterly winds ahead of the cold front and westerly winds behind it. Also the instability of the atmosphere. This is one of the ingredients I believe will give us a tornado threat. 

 

Dewpoints will reach the mid-60s and air temperatures could reach the mid-70s. Providing the warm moist air needed for severe storms.

 

 

Here's what some of the severe weather parameters are showing. 

The EHI

 

Supercell composite

This is what the SARS-Sounding shows. You can see this is shaping up to be a tornadic event. With significant supercell and hail possibilities. Also between 5-6 out of eleven for possible tornadoes. It also shows the strength of these possible tornadoes could reach EF-4.  Now let me say this. These readings don't necessarily mean a tornado of that strength will form just the potential is there. This is a box area reading and not just a certain point. It covers most of the areas I highlighted.

 

 

 

Here is the radar

 

Update tomorrow.

[nWo]

Forgive me in advance if I'm jumping the gun on this but I do not like the data I'm seeing. We are now in the range of the NAM. Here's what its' severe weather parameters are showing. 

 

EHI

 

Supercell composite

 

Significant Tornado Parameters

 

Everyone can see an increase in the conditions that could cause severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of southeast Kentucky in a 15% category for possible severe storms. In the day 3 outlook tomorrow I fully expect at least a level 2 Slight Risk Area to be issued for portions of Kentucky east of I-75 and maybe south of I-64.

 

I will post a more detailed update tomorrow may be two.

[nWo]

As I anticipated the Storm Prediction Center now has a portion of Kentucky under a lever 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Slight Risk Area is expanded to include more of Kentucky. That is bordered by a level 1 Marginal Risk Area. I will update everyone later today.

 

[nWo]

The severe threat continues from Wednesday afternoon into the early evening. As it looks all modes of severe weather could be possible. Damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes. The timing appears to be from mid-afternoon into Wednesday night. All of the following maps cover the period from 2-11 pm EDT.

Temps could reach the low 70s before the storms move through. They will fall into the mid-40s after the showers pass. Southwesterly winds will also bring in moisture as the dew points reach the low 60s. 

 

 

 

Now let's take a quick look at the severe weather parameters. The EHI shows that conditions will be favorable for severe storms to form. 

 

Supercell thunderstorms will also be possible

 

The tornado threat now is a 2 out of 11 but it is showing the possibility of tornadoes reaching upwards of EF-3 status will be possible. Not this doesn't mean that they will but the conditions will make it possible. 

 

Now, this map shows where my thinking about where the greatest tornado threat will be. Tornadoes can form in other areas where the conditions are favorable. 

 

 

Update comes tomorrow. 

 

[nWo]

After taking a quick look at the latest SARS, my concern is increasing for  in and around an area that includes Monticello, Jamestown, Somerset, Corbin, London, and Williamsburg Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The tornado risk is now up to about 4.5 out of 11. It is showing conditions that could be favorable for the formation of supercell thunderstorms that could produce EF-3+ tornadoes. A word of caution. This doesn't mean a tornado of that strength will form. Just that the conditions make it a possibility. If these conditions persist I may go into severe weather alert later today. I just wanted to give everyone in that area a heads up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

My concern continues to grow for the area I mentioned earlier today. Ahead of the front temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s along with dew points in the mid-60s. This could be fuel for the thunderstorms to become severe. Especially along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. All severe weather modes look to be possible. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes some of which could be strong. My thinking at the moment is the main threat will be from 5-8 pm EDT

 

 

 

Here's what the severe weather guidance is showing. The conditions could be ripe for some storms to become supercell and produce some tornadoes of which some could reach EF-3 status.

EHI

 

Supercell

 

Significant Tornado

 

The Skewed T Chart is what has been concerning me. Now it is showing the possibility of a PDS tornado. That's EF-3 to EF-4 status. It is a 4 out of 11 of one forming anywhere in a 25-mile radius from a certain point around Somerset to Corbin. It is also showing a chance of significant hail. Hopefully, conditions will weaken some between now and tomorrow evening. 

 

I'm going to go ahead and issue a severe weather alert day for Wednesday. I will update everyone early tomorrow morning.