Ready for the Weather Rollercoaster this week?

[nWo]

 

I haven't done a theme for my weather forecast for a while. For this week this song is quite appropriate. Some could see scattered to isolated strong to severe storms Monday through Tuesday. Once again on Monday portions of western Kentucky will be under the gun with a Category 2 Slight Risk Area for scattered strong to severe storms. Tuesday portions of Kentucky mainly west of I-75 are under a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area for isolated strong to possibly severe storms. Then to end the week winter comes back with a vengeance. Some could see freezing rain and light snow accumulations. At this point, the snow accumulations look to be very light. What is troubling is the possible freezing rain accumulations. The area of concern will be mainly along and north of the Ohio River from western to northern Kentucky. Now the totals I will snow on the maps below are not an official forecast. Things will change between now and the end of the week. After the precipitation moves out a very cold Arctic air mass will move in starting Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures could reach below zero in the Cincinnati/NKY area. While most of those along the Ohio River could see single digits by Saturday morning. 

Monday Severe Weather Outlook.

 

Tuesday

 

Possible snow accumulations.

 

 

possible ice accumulations

 

 

This is the possible temperature map from 10 am EST/9 am central Friday to 4 pm EST/3 pm central Saturday.

 

 

 

Check for updates each day. A possible severe weather update for Monday and Tuesday will be posted this evening.

[nWo]

The severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon has increased. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Category 2 Slight Risk Area for a vast majority of Kentucky west of I-65. There is a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms portions of Kentucky from around I-75 back westward to I-65. 

Severe thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat,   wind damage and large hail will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

 

I will post and update later this evening. 

[nWo]

Monday evening update.

 

Severe thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat, wind damage, and large hail will be possible Tuesday over portions of the lower Ohio Valley. The tornado threat will be once again mainly west of I-65. Model guidance is trending towards a scenario with two distinct potential severe risk corridors. The first is near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi and the Tennessee and Ohio Rivers from southeast Missouri east-northeastward into western Kentucky during the day near the surface low over the mid-Mississippi Valley. The primary mode of storms will be in a line during the daytime activity across the lower Ohio Valley with damaging wind gusts a possibility with the stronger storms. Quick spin-up tornado risk is also possible. A second line is forecast to form and pass over the same general area as the first.

As of now, I think the main tornado threat will be in western Kentucky late afternoon into the early evening.

Radar

 

EHI

 

Significant Tornado Parameter

 

 

Check back for an update in the morning. If the model guidance continues on this route I will go into a Severe Weather Day.