Cincinnati vs. Alabama (CFP Semifinal) Predictions/Updates

[futurecoach]

1 hour ago, Purple88 said:

Understand your line of thinking here, but what I saw in the Georgia game is where coaching comes into play.  Alabama's OLine was abused, exposed, and played like trash against Auburn, who has a strong DLine.  They turn around in 1 week and outplay arguably the best DLine in the country.  Yes, it is one game.  But I know 2 things:

1.  Cincinnati's Dline isn't as good as Georgia's or Auburn's and

2.  Never pick against Nick Saban with 3 weeks to prepare and when his team is focused.

Good points. However, Auburn got a lot of pressure because of blitzing more so than just their D line. It could also be said that UC secondary is probably better than both Auburns and Georgia’s. So with better coverage, that would allow Cincinnati’s d line more time to rush the passer. It would allow UC to also be more aggressive and blitz more if needed because of the secondary. Not to mention with Bama having one of its top playmakers out, that also helps UC. 
 

Also yes Saban is probably the best college coach of all time. However, the man still has lost games that people didn’t expect, even in bowl games with weeks to prepare. He even lost a playoff game to a team with its third string QB making his second career start ever. No way anyone would think the defensive genius of Saban would allow a third string QB to do that to him after having weeks to prepare and it still happened. 
 

Should Bama be favored to win? Absolutely. Should it be much of a shock if UC wins though? To me at least it wouldn’t be that shocking to see UC win this one. 

[Carl Spackler]

13 hours ago, Walter said:

Different players, but yes I think Ridder is not only a better player, but also a better prospect because of his size, arm strength, and athleticism. His work over the summer with Jesse Palmer really helped his development coming in to this season.

Just my opinion, but I think Corral is more a product of the system he is in. If the two switched teams, I don't know that UC is still sitting at 13-0 right now. 

There's a few mock drafts out there that also have Ridder a projected 1st round pick so it's not that big of a stretch to think Ridder is the better player. 44-5 career record over 4 seasons is REALLY HARD to do, regardless of where you are playing. 

You're the only person I've seen that has  Ridder as a better prospect than Corral.  In every mock draft that I've seen Corral is going no later than the 10th pick, and no later than the 2nd quarterback taken. One draft had Pickett going ahead of him.  None of the drafts has Ridder any better than the fifth quarterback taken, and none of them had him in the first round.  It's noble to be loyal to your team, but Ridder is not a better player than Corral. He's just not. 

[Walter]

13 hours ago, Carl Spackler said:

You're the only person I've seen that has  Ridder as a better prospect than Corral.  In every mock draft that I've seen Corral is going no later than the 10th pick, and no later than the 2nd quarterback taken. One draft had Pickett going ahead of him.  None of the drafts has Ridder any better than the fifth quarterback taken, and none of them had him in the first round.  It's noble to be loyal to your team, but Ridder is not a better player than Corral. He's just not. 

When did I say Ridder was higher in the mock drafts than Corral? I stated it as my OPINION that Ridder was the better prospect because of his size, arm strength, and athleticism.

Not sure which mocks you're looking at but in the  NFL Draft Network player rankings, they have Corral as the 29th best prospect and Ridder as the 35th best prospect.  

247sports does have Corral going 3rd overall to the Texans.

McShay rates Corral 16th overall. (Ridder 38th)

Mel Kiper rates Ridder 21st overall and Corral 23rd. 

Sporting News ranks Corral 16th and Ridder 28th. 

Not as big of a difference in the two as you're making it out to be. I don't think Corral's size (6'0 200 lbs) translates well to the next level. Just my opinion though.

[Purple88]

22 hours ago, futurecoach said:

Good points. However, Auburn got a lot of pressure because of blitzing more so than just their D line. It could also be said that UC secondary is probably better than both Auburns and Georgia’s. So with better coverage, that would allow Cincinnati’s d line more time to rush the passer. It would allow UC to also be more aggressive and blitz more if needed because of the secondary. Not to mention with Bama having one of its top playmakers out, that also helps UC. 

Also good points.  I think the blitzing will be needed.  How UC can cover the "other guys" like Robinson out of the backfield, Slade Bolden, TE Latu and what happened to the Billingsly kid?  Those will be important as UC I think is better than Georgia and Auburn in the secondary.  But the blitz is a lot like shooting 3s; you live and die by them.  Accounting for Young on the run will be important for UC too.  Bryce Young isn't a great runner but capable and honestly this is where I think Ridder can do some damage as well with scrambling.

But your last point above is important too.  John Menchie is a great WR and his loss is very big.  Bama in the past has just reloaded another capable guy.  I think they have some young guys who can make catches, but they aren't at Menchie's level now.  So it will be interesting.

[bugatti]

6 hours ago, Walter said:

When did I say Ridder was higher in the mock drafts than Corral? I stated it as my OPINION that Ridder was the better prospect because of his size, arm strength, and athleticism.

Not sure which mocks you're looking at but in the  NFL Draft Network player rankings, they have Corral as the 29th best prospect and Ridder as the 35th best prospect.  

247sports does have Corral going 3rd overall to the Texans.

McShay rates Corral 16th overall. (Ridder 38th)

Mel Kiper rates Ridder 21st overall and Corral 23rd. 

Sporting News ranks Corral 16th and Ridder 28th. 

Not as big of a difference in the two as you're making it out to be. I don't think Corral's size (6'0 200 lbs) translates well to the next level. Just my opinion though.

In what little action I have seen of them both, I don't see either doing big things in the NFL, but what do I know? The game has changed so much to be pro-QB. If I were an NFL GM I would have been fired after one draft. 🙂

[Carl Spackler]

15 hours ago, Walter said:

When did I say Ridder was higher in the mock drafts than Corral? I stated it as my OPINION that Ridder was the better prospect because of his size, arm strength, and athleticism.

Not sure which mocks you're looking at but in the  NFL Draft Network player rankings, they have Corral as the 29th best prospect and Ridder as the 35th best prospect.  

247sports does have Corral going 3rd overall to the Texans.

McShay rates Corral 16th overall. (Ridder 38th)

Mel Kiper rates Ridder 21st overall and Corral 23rd. 

Sporting News ranks Corral 16th and Ridder 28th. 

Not as big of a difference in the two as you're making it out to be. I don't think Corral's size (6'0 200 lbs) translates well to the next level. Just my opinion though.

Read my quote.  I didn't say that you said a word about mock drafts.  I said that you were about the only person that has Ridder rated as a better prospect than Corral.  I used the mock drafts to support that.  

SI: Corral 8th, Ridder not in the first round.

Pro Football Network: Corral 11th, Ridder not in first round.

CBS Sports: Corral 3rd, Ridder not in first round.

[Jumper_Dad]

On 12/7/2021 at 9:50 AM, futurecoach said:

Good points. However, Auburn got a lot of pressure because of blitzing more so than just their D line. It could also be said that UC secondary is probably better than both Auburns and Georgia’s. So with better coverage, that would allow Cincinnati’s d line more time to rush the passer. It would allow UC to also be more aggressive and blitz more if needed because of the secondary. Not to mention with Bama having one of its top playmakers out, that also helps UC. 
 

Also yes Saban is probably the best college coach of all time. However, the man still has lost games that people didn’t expect, even in bowl games with weeks to prepare. He even lost a playoff game to a team with its third string QB making his second career start ever. No way anyone would think the defensive genius of Saban would allow a third string QB to do that to him after having weeks to prepare and it still happened. 
 

Should Bama be favored to win? Absolutely. Should it be much of a shock if UC wins though? To me at least it wouldn’t be that shocking to see UC win this one. 

That 3rd string QB barely completed 50% of his pass for just over 200 yards, 1 TD 1 Int. That game wasn't won because of a third string QB, it was won on the legs of Elliott. 

To your other point, yes every coach/team will lose games no one expects and it could happen again here.

UC absolutely can win this game, this isn't last years Bama team which would have beaten them by 35 or a team from that past with a defense that could probably shut the Bearcats out. This is a flawed Alabama team. The question is this, is the BEST Bearcat team in history good enough to beat this flawed Bama team...maybe, we'll see.

 

[CincySportsFan]

On 12/6/2021 at 11:00 PM, futurecoach said:

I don’t disagree. I also don’t think this is the same type of Bama team we are use to seeing in the playoffs. Let’s not let past Bama teams impact what this years Bama team actually is. 

Don't hold your breath.  Unfortunately this happens all the time.  I mean, good grief, how many fans (including many on here) were actively "campaigning" during the season to keep teams like Oklahoma and Notre Dame out of the playoffs, simply based upon how they've performed in it over the years?  I believe the catch-phrase that is used the most, is "fraud".  A lot of people like to use history to justify their thinking about current teams, when in fact there's not a lot that should be taken from year-to-year.

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

On 12/8/2021 at 7:35 PM, Carl Spackler said:

Read my quote.  I didn't say that you said a word about mock drafts.  I said that you were about the only person that has Ridder rated as a better prospect than Corral.  I used the mock drafts to support that.  

SI: Corral 8th, Ridder not in the first round.

Pro Football Network: Corral 11th, Ridder not in first round.

CBS Sports: Corral 3rd, Ridder not in first round.

I'm not paid to evaluate future NFL talent for a living... So not sure why you care so much about me thinking Ridder is the better prospect when compared to Corral. 

Jim Nagy (Senior bowl Director) and Mel Kiper are both paid to evaluate talent for a living and think Ridder has the most upside in this class at the QB position. I trust their evaluations. 

We can re visit this discussion after UC-Bama and the Senior Bowl when new mocks start to roll out. 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

 

[Walter]

[Walter]