Woodford County vs. South Warren Predictions/Updates

[ChiefSmoke]

49 minutes ago, Paul Dean said:

Anybody that is interested in high school football in Kentucky, especially local teams and legends, should really get ChiefSmoke’s book “Black Shoes and White Shoestrings”.  A lot of really good stories in there that you would enjoy!

I appreciate that. Means alot to me. The first book sold in 2014... went to Perryville, KY. Exactly as it should be!

[Purple88]

This is going to be a very competitive game IMO.  I went to the CovCath v Woodford game last Friday, as I wanted to see what Woodford Co was all about.  I was very impressed with them and while I do feel CovCath was way down, that's not Woodford's fault.  And truth be told, Woodford could have very easily been up 21-0 at the half instead of 14-7.  

I have also seen South Warren twice this season, both against BG.  Interesting thing is that IMO they played much better the first game than the playoff game, but I think BG had alot to do with that in that BG competed much harder in the playoffs.

While South Warren has several very good offensive players, their bread and butter is their stout defense which sells the farm to stop the run and they are VERY good at that.  They also have athletes in the secondary, but several of those guys go both ways and IMO there are plays to be made against South here.

The way to beat South IMO is to pass to set up the run.  Woodford County had some AWESOME play designs very early in the CovCath game where QB Patterson (who is IMO the best QB in the state no one knows about) tosses VERY short passes to a player in motion that get the ball VERY quickly outside the tackle box.  That was really effective early for Woodford and the kind of play that would work against South as the tackle box is the area of the field South wants to take away.  So I'm saying pass and then come back with the run later, as I do think Woodford has a good Oline and RBs.

Woodford needs to clean up the penalties.  You get behind the sticks on South and that's bad news and they use that to pin you deep and force a punt and play on half the field.  If you get in that spin cycle, it is really tough to break due to the strength of this South defense.

Now the other units:  It is one thing to be able to stop a QB sneak (CovCath must have run that 25 times - not kidding), it is another to stop a diverse offense with multiple 3 year starters.  South QB Veltcamp is a very good QB, RB Kolbe Martin is best in the 4th Quarter and WRs Bell (WKU signee) and Conyers (high D1 recruit) are tough to cover.  If P/WR Dersivevic is healthy, watch the fake punt.  He's the most athletic punter in the state.  So I'm sayin South has a good offensive scheme that will give Woodford some problems, but it won't be free lunch and they will have to earn it.

I liked Woodford's defense.  Their DLine, while not being huge, were very agile and didn't seem to break down very much at all.  Their LB'ers, especially #41 Jackson Geilear, who is also a very good RB, fly to the ball!  The WC safeties played really well, except for one play during the opening drive, but CC couldn't make them pay.  The WC corners played ok, but again I think plays can be made here.

Special teams:  South Warren - Eldar Dersivevic is so underrated and is a very strong kicker.

Woodford County - #10 was a really good kicker as well, but on the kickoff Zion Mason for CC took to the house, Coach Johnson was all over him as he kicked it right down the middle of the field and it was the only bad play Woodford County made the whole first half.  Don't make this mistake again to Christian Conyers for South, as he'll take it to the house as well.

This is alot of stuff, but to finish, I think both teams can and will have success.  How Woodford County is or is not able to move the ball will be pretty HUGE in this game.  I think WC QB Patterson is going to need to make some plays with his legs in order for Woodford to win.  A 3 yard gain is WAY better than a 8 yard sack, as keeping ahead of the chains is crucial for the WC offense.

Couple last things:  I really liked Woodford's field/stadium.  Their fans were really passionate, but very hospitable as well.  And they are LOUD!  Will be a great atmosphere!  Good luck to both teams!

[DevilMayCare]

6 hours ago, Purple88 said:

While South Warren has several very good offensive players, their bread and butter is their stout defense which sells the farm to stop the run and they are VERY good at that. They also have athletes in the secondary, but several of those guys go both ways and IMO there are plays to be made against South here.

The way to beat South IMO is to pass to set up the run.

Good stuff, 88.

When thinking about this game, the first thing that comes to mind for me is Woodford's ground game against South's front seven. I don't see any way for the Jackets to consistently move the football without Patterson scrambling and making throws. Luke Burton and Jake Jackson will be waiting to welcome Stacy and Geilear with open arms on anything between the tackles, though I should add they might not enjoy the way Woodford's backs finish runs. Jackson vs. Tristan Cook should make for an awesome 1-on-1 battle within the war.

That being said, I love Woodford's offensive scheme. They have the personnel to attack you in a variety of ways. I'm picturing Chuck Smith in a bunker somewhere, cooking up a game plan to sooth the sting of this Yellow Jackets offense. 

[Silverwolf]

Don’t under value Woodford’s oline, they are a force to be reckoned with. They didn’t perform well against Cov Cath and I think they will rise to the challenge SW is gonna present to them. In my opinion, this game is gonna be decided in the trenches. I do know that Woodford doesn’t have any offensive or defensive lineman that goes both ways, which has played a huge role in their success this year. I would imagine SW doesn’t either. This game is gonna have a state championship atmosphere for sure. I don’t know who it was, but someone said 5A is down this year. If that’s the case, why are 4 of the teams ranked in the top 10 5A? I think it has the most competitive semi-final games across all 6 classes and I think it’s fair to say any of the 4 could win the state championship.

[R1 sports fan]

I liked what a saw from the Woodford O-line last week, but the Spartans defensive line will be the best they have played this year. One of the most fundamentally sound defensive lines you will see, they don’t bust assignments, and are really good with there hands.

[Silverwolf]

Can’t wait to watch the battle!

[Socially Distanced]

I like Woodford here... keep the dream season alive! 28-20. 

[Spartandad]

14 hours ago, Purple88 said:

This is going to be a very competitive game IMO.  I went to the CovCath v Woodford game last Friday, as I wanted to see what Woodford Co was all about.  I was very impressed with them and while I do feel CovCath was way down, that's not Woodford's fault.  And truth be told, Woodford could have very easily been up 21-0 at the half instead of 14-7.  

I have also seen South Warren twice this season, both against BG.  Interesting thing is that IMO they played much better the first game than the playoff game, but I think BG had alot to do with that in that BG competed much harder in the playoffs.

While South Warren has several very good offensive players, their bread and butter is their stout defense which sells the farm to stop the run and they are VERY good at that.  They also have athletes in the secondary, but several of those guys go both ways and IMO there are plays to be made against South here.

The way to beat South IMO is to pass to set up the run.  Woodford County had some AWESOME play designs very early in the CovCath game where QB Patterson (who is IMO the best QB in the state no one knows about) tosses VERY short passes to a player in motion that get the ball VERY quickly outside the tackle box.  That was really effective early for Woodford and the kind of play that would work against South as the tackle box is the area of the field South wants to take away.  So I'm saying pass and then come back with the run later, as I do think Woodford has a good Oline and RBs.

Woodford needs to clean up the penalties.  You get behind the sticks on South and that's bad news and they use that to pin you deep and force a punt and play on half the field.  If you get in that spin cycle, it is really tough to break due to the strength of this South defense.

Now the other units:  It is one thing to be able to stop a QB sneak (CovCath must have run that 25 times - not kidding), it is another to stop a diverse offense with multiple 3 year starters.  South QB Veltcamp is a very good QB, RB Kolbe Martin is best in the 4th Quarter and WRs Bell (WKU signee) and Conyers (high D1 recruit) are tough to cover.  If P/WR Dersivevic is healthy, watch the fake punt.  He's the most athletic punter in the state.  So I'm sayin South has a good offensive scheme that will give Woodford some problems, but it won't be free lunch and they will have to earn it.

I liked Woodford's defense.  Their DLine, while not being huge, were very agile and didn't seem to break down very much at all.  Their LB'ers, especially #41 Jackson Geilear, who is also a very good RB, fly to the ball!  The WC safeties played really well, except for one play during the opening drive, but CC couldn't make them pay.  The WC corners played ok, but again I think plays can be made here.

Special teams:  South Warren - Eldar Dersivevic is so underrated and is a very strong kicker.

Woodford County - #10 was a really good kicker as well, but on the kickoff Zion Mason for CC took to the house, Coach Johnson was all over him as he kicked it right down the middle of the field and it was the only bad play Woodford County made the whole first half.  Don't make this mistake again to Christian Conyers for South, as he'll take it to the house as well.

This is alot of stuff, but to finish, I think both teams can and will have success.  How Woodford County is or is not able to move the ball will be pretty HUGE in this game.  I think WC QB Patterson is going to need to make some plays with his legs in order for Woodford to win.  A 3 yard gain is WAY better than a 8 yard sack, as keeping ahead of the chains is crucial for the WC offense.

Couple last things:  I really liked Woodford's field/stadium.  Their fans were really passionate, but very hospitable as well.  And they are LOUD!  Will be a great atmosphere!  Good luck to both teams!

I think you are very accurate in everything that you said. I believe BG played better during the playoff game as compared to the regular season and South was a little worse. WC has the most opportunity to do well against South's secondary as compared to trying to rush the ball, but they will get a lot of pressure on the QB  from South's D. South is 1st in the state against the rush and that's with the 2nd string playing probably 15 quarters. There is no single lineman in the state that can stop Jackson from getting into the backfield and wreaking havoc. Burton, Snell and Hudson will all make tackles on the other side of scrimmage too. Nevertheless, I feel WC will have some success on the ground. They've got a big o-line that could wear down South after a few quarters. The big question that I have for you, Purple88, is "How good is WC'S defense?". Are they better than BG? As far as yardage, the stats don't show them to be amazing. I know you've seen them play, so what do you think? Especially their pass rush. If they aren't significantly better than BG, then I would see SW scoring at least 3 times, maybe 4. If South can put up 28, I think it will be hard for WC to put up more than that against SW'S defense.

[cincyswords]

On 11/21/2021 at 9:03 AM, Silverwolf said:

lol…..is that right? Well, we’re just honored that y’all are gonna at least make the 2 hour drive up here so we can honor your presence. 

I knew this was coming.  Just because someone picks a team to win by a lot we then get the obligatory pity party of disrespect.  Its ok to pick someone to win by a decent amount.  Does not mean your team is disrespected.  Its just one persons opinion.  

[TheBarber]

On 11/22/2021 at 8:48 AM, ChiefSmoke said:

A couple of great football families here.....

 

Woodford County's head coach is Dennis Johnson. His dad, Alvis Johnson, is coaching with him. 

 

South Warren's head coach is Brandon Smith. His dad, Chuck Smith, is coaching with him.

 

On and off the field, 4 great men and representing two wonderful families. Best wishes to both teams!

 

Pretty neat. 

[Spartandad]

8 hours ago, DevilMayCare said:

Good stuff, 88.

When thinking about this game, the first thing that comes to mind for me is Woodford's ground game against South's front seven. I don't see any way for the Jackets to consistently move the football without Patterson scrambling and making throws. Luke Burton and Jake Jackson will be waiting to welcome Stacy and Geilear with open arms on anything between the tackles, though I should add they might not enjoy the way Woodford's backs finish runs. Jackson vs. Tristan Cook should make for an awesome 1-on-1 battle within the war.

That being said, I love Woodford's offensive scheme. They have the personnel to attack you in a variety of ways. I'm picturing Chuck Smith in a bunker somewhere, cooking up a game plan to sooth the sting of this Yellow Jackets offense. 

I agree with you, whichever team controls the line of scrimmage is going to be the victor. WC definitely has the potential to overwhelm the smaller South D-line. South has got a lot of speed and agility waiting for them though. We'll see what happens.

Jackson vs Cook is the age old question of what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object. Jackson is fast and strong, while Cook is a giant. One one one, if Cook gets good contact on Jackson, he can probably toss him around a few times. He outweighs him by probably 70 lbs.  If Cook and the center double team Jackson (assuming he plays the 1 position), then WC will probably be able to run up the middle successfully. If Jackson is out in the 3 and the Tackle blocks outside, then I Jackson is definitely fast enough to get by Cook often. 

 

[Kanaka Kahakai]

I’m the voice of King Leonidas…. “THIS IS SPARTA”!

[Killowatt59]

1 hour ago, cincyswords said:

I knew this was coming.  Just because someone picks a team to win by a lot we then get the obligatory pity party of disrespect.  Its ok to pick someone to win by a decent amount.  Does not mean your team is disrespected.  Its just one persons opinion.  

"Walk softly and carry a big stick." 

Some of the WC folks seem to be walking loudly with a small stick. WC has not had a history of being a powerhouse. Really that entire area outside of Covington Catholic hasn't had that much success, especially against the other parts of the state. 

On the flip side South has underachieved a lot given what they have too. But I just don't see WC being a huge threat to South. I think WC will have trouble scoring and unless WC can get pressure on Veltkamp, I see South being able to score.

Veltkamp struggles when under pressure, but it's very hard to get him under pressure with that OL.  

South is a more overall talented team. I think they have several players that will be by far the best talent on the field. And I can't believe I'm saying this cause it's usually not the case, but I trust South's schedule more than WC.

Give me South 14+.

[Samcro]

Off thread for sure, but reading the last post made me curious about geographical success in 5A.

5A football has been in existence since 2007.  NKY based teams have won 6 titles, Warren Co based teams have won 7 titles and Pulaski Co won once.  

Side Note: Highlands and Cov Cath were not in 5A 2011-2014.  CCH wasn’t very good during that stretch, but Highlands was, winning 4A in ‘11, ‘12 and ‘14 (runner up in ‘13).  

[Killowatt59]

Here's the list of 5A Champions for anyone that is curious since it got brought up inthe previous post.

2020-Bowling Green

2019 -Covington Catholic

2018- South Warren

2017-Covington Catholic

2016- Bowling Green

2015 - Bowling Green

2014- Pulaski County

2013- Bowling Green

2012 - Bowling Green

2011-Bowling Green

2010- Highlands

2009- Highlands

2008 -Highlands

2007 -Highlands

But when looking at the non state title matchups too, there are just certain areas and schedules that I don't give the benefit of the doubt too.