Severe Weather chance for Saturday (3/27/21)

[nWo]

 

Saturday afternoon storms are expected to initiate along the southeast-advancing cold front within a strongly sheared environment supportive of a few organized storms capable of mostly isolated large hail and damaging wind during the late afternoon into the evening. Check back for an update later today.

[nWo]

This upcoming severe weather event appears to be an overnight one on Saturday into early Sunday morning. Severe storms will be possible starting Saturday evening along the southern border then spread over the rest of Kentucky through the overnight hours. All hazards are possible including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Those who live along the western Tennessee border should look out for the potential for strong tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky west of I-65 in a category 2 Slight Risk Area. East of that the rest of the state is in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

 

As for timing, I'm looking for the start to be around 4-5 pm EST for those along the Tennessee border. The possible severe storms will spread across the rest of Kentucky during the overnight hours before conditions for the storms ending around 5 am EST Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue during the day on Sunday.

The following maps are from 2 pm EST Saturday to 5 am EST Sunday morning.

Radar

 

EHI

 

Supercell Composite

 

Significant Tornado Parameter

 

 

As everyone can see western and central Tennessee will be under the gun for possible strong tornadoes. Since this appears to be an overnight event and if the conditions continue I will issue a severe weather alert day tomorrow morning.