Next Winter Weather Event

[nWo]

The next event to affect Kentucky will start Wednesday evening and last till Thursday evening. Snow and freezing rain accumulations will be possible. The models are differing on the amounts. One reason is that the NAM is showing more moisture moving in from the Gulf than the GFS.

Here are the Precipitable Water which is the total atmospheric water in air. 

NAM

 

 

Also both models differ on some warm air trying to move in to eastern and southeastern Kentucky. This will affect the type and accumulation amounts.

NAM

 

GFS has the warm air invading more of Kentucky than the NAM. This is why it is showing less accumulations than the NAM

 

Now lets look at how all of this will affect us. The following maps show the system entering in Kentucky around 7 pm EST Wednesday evening and lasting until around the same time Thursday. 

 

NAM

The NAM has the warm air confined to portions of southern and southeastern Kentucky. The warm air will change the precipitation to rain.

 

GFS

 

The GFS has the precipitation mostly all rain for southern and southeastern Kentucky.

 

Now here are what each model are showing for possible totals.

NAM

 

GFS

 

If I had to make a call tonight,  there will be a swath of 2-6 inches from southcentral Kentucky to northeastern Kentucky. North of that 1-3 inches. For southeastern Kentucky snow accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches. My main concern is a section of eastern Kentucky that could receive upwards to .50 of an inch of freezing rain accumulations.

[nWo]

Wednesday evening update:

The models are if fair agreement about tonight's winter storm. One thing that is good is the possible freezing rain accumulations are down from yesterday. First, lets look at what the they are showing. All of the simulations cover the same time period. From 7 pm EST tonight to around  10 pm EST Thursday night.

The NAM

 

The GFS

 

Now lets see what they are showing for possible accumulations.

The NAM

 

The GFS

 

As of now it appears that the freezing rain accumulations will be between .05-.10 of an inch. Also it looks to be mainly for sections of southeastern, eastern and southern Kentucky. 

Snow accumulations look to be as follows, 2-4 inches in western Kentucky, Cincinnati/NKY and Louisville areas. South and east of that look for 3-6 inches. For eastern Kentucky look for 2-4 inches along with the possibilities of upwards of around .10 on an inch of freezing rain accumulations. Please note that there could be localized higher amounts of snow accumulations.

[sportsfan41]

Thanks nWo.