December 13, 20205 yr Some could see some light amounts of accumulating snow on Monday. Any possible accumulations will be light may be 1-2" mainly in the higher elevations of eastern Kentucky. The NAM has some very light snow possible for western Kentucky maybe a dusting to 1". The GFS is coming in with even lighter amounts for eastern Kentucky with no snow for western portions of the state. Here's the NAM The GFS Tuesday evening into the day on Wednesday is when we could see a more wide spread event. The wintry precipitation we need to watch out fore besides snow is some possible freezing rain accumulations. First I want to show that we will start off with rain then start the transition over to some freezing rain to snow. The area between the arrows is the transition zone. The blue 540 line is the beginning of the air cold enough to turn the rain into snow. As we can see some of the rain is starting to turn into wintry precipitation. This is about 4 am EST Wednesday morning. The cold air will eventually move and over take the rain field and turn it over to all snow by rush hour. How fast the change over is will affect the snow accumulations Here's the NAM simulated radar First lets discuss this new weather model is the FRAM est. model from the NAM. It shows the possible freezing rain accumulations on elevated horizontal surfaces like bridges. The NAM is showing some light glazing of the bridges and elevated roadways around Louisville. Some possible heavier amounts if eastern Kentucky around the Pikeville area. The GFS is coming in with some heavier amounts. Also a bigger coverage area with the Cincinnati/NKY area coming into the picture and maybe not much in the Pikeville area. Here are what they are showing for possible snow accumulations. First the NAM. The GFS is showing lighter accumulations because it is coming in warmer than the NAM. I'll give my first call for Wednesday tomorrow.
December 14, 20205 yr Author 1st call for Tuesday night. At this time, it looks like any snow accumulations will be mainly from around I-64 northward. This is what the NAM is showing. The precipitation will move into western Kentucky and travel in a northeasterly directions. It will remain all rain except around the Ohio River. The cold air looks change the rain over to snow by rush hour Wednesday morning in northern Kentucky. Portions of eastern Kentucky could see some freezing rain. The GFS is showing the system taking a more northerly track. The precipitation will be mostly rain except for some light freezing rain. Now for my first call. I'm thinking the totals will remain on the light side a dusting to around 1inch. May be 1-2 inches for portions of northeast Kentucky. Here's the possible freezing rain accumulations. I will update in the morning.
December 15, 20205 yr Author Tuesday morning update: Looks like we will have all of the types of precipitation possible on Wednesday. As the system moves into Kentucky later tonight it will start off as mostly rain. Then as the cold air tries to take over we will see some freezing rain before it changes over to all snow early Wednesday morning. Most of the wintry precipitation looks to stay north of I-64. The areas that could receive the most freezing rain are southern Indiana and portions of Kentucky north of I-64. Namely southern Indiana and a section between Louisville and Cincinnati. Freezing rain accumulations on elevated road surfaces of between .06-.10 of an inch. This will cause some hazardous road conditions for rush hour Wednesday morning. The Cincinnati area could received around .04 of an inch before the change over to all snow. Louisville area looks to be around .05-.08 of an inch especially north of the city. The next map shows the total freezing rain accumulations on all surfaces which is pretty much that same as the one above. Now for the possible snow accumulations which once again will be mainly north of I-64. If the freezing rain occurs it will cut down on the snow accumulations. I look for mainly a dusting to 1 inch from Louisville to Lexington. Around an inch in the Cincinnati/NKY area. 1-2" will be possible from around Maysville to Ashland. I will update everyone later this evening.
December 15, 20205 yr Author Tuesday evening update. Snow accumulations will be on the light side and mainly north of I-64. Dusting to 1 inch will be possible. The highest totals look to be in the Cincinnati/NKY are where 1-2 inches will be possible. Also around a 1-2 inches for northeastern and eastern Kentucky along and north of I-64. This is what the NAM is showing. The story may become the possible freezing rain. My area of concern is around the I-71 corridor from Louisville to the northern Kentucky area. This the same area I mentioned last night. Both model are showing that area getting some good amounts of freezing rain. The NAM first the map for elevated roadways and bridges then the total possible freezing rain accumulations. Southern Indiana could receive upwards of .25 inches of accumulation. While along I-71 could see .10-.15 inches of accumulations. This will cause some difficult driving conditions in those areas. Southern Indian could see some power outages. This is from the GFS. Every should be prepared for some difficult driving conditions around rush hour in the morning. I forgot to put the GFS radar and snow accumulations.
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