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BGP Severe Weather Alert Day Wed. 6/10/2020


nWo
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Northern and northeastern Kentucky could get in on the action on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk Area for those portions of the state. South of this area Isolated to scattered storms is in the forecast for Wednesday. Supercell formation is possible which would result in locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a possible tornado.

 

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I will update on this situation later today.

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The severe threat has increased for Wednesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat level for a large portion of Ohio. It is now in a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for severe storms. This includes the Cincinnati area. The level 2 Slight Risk Area has been expanded southward down to between Corbin and London.

 

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Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across portions fo the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Severe, damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though a few tornadoes and some hail threats are also possible. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the I-65 corridor around mid-day and move eastward over the course of the afternoon. The best chance for tornadoes will be along and east of the US 127 corridor after about 3 pm EDT. The threat will end by sunset as a cold front sweeps the storms east of the area.

 

The HRRR radar shows the storms forming around the 3 pm EDT time period and progressing eastward to around 8 pm EDT.

 

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I"m issuing a high level 1 BGP Tornado Threat Index for this afternoon.

 

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I will be monitoring this situation throughout the day.

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Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are the main threat, although a few tornadoes and severe hail are also possible.

 

 

No major changes to the prior outlook and associated reasoning with this update. A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms, primarily in the form of widespread damaging winds, is expected across Lower Michigan and eastern Indiana into Ohio mainly this afternoon and evening.

 

 

The remnants of Cristobal have contributed to a very moist air mass across the region, with lower 70s F surface dewpoints prevalent (as far north as northern Lower Michigan) to the east of an east-northeastward moving cold front. This advancing cold front will spread across Lower Michigan/Indiana and western Ohio/east-central Kentucky through peak heating/early evening.

 

Widespread damaging winds are likely to be the most common impact from the fast-moving storms, particularly as they merge/evolve into northeastward-racing bands and bows this afternoon through early evening. Isolated large hail will also be possible, particularly within the first couple of hours of surface-based initiation when storms may be in more of a semi-discrete supercellular form. A few tornadoes could also occur regionally.

 

I am watching this closely and will be back with an update around 1-2 pm EDT.

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Been a very cloudy and humid day so far in Cincinnati. Hoping that helps some later in the day when the front advances to the area.

 

Look for the clouds to start clearing out around 1-2 pm EDT

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