Scattered storms possible portions of Kentucky Tuesday (2/24/2020)

[nWo]

A large cluster of thunderstorms should be ongoing Tuesday morning in central and southeastern Missouri. This convection is expected to move eastward across southern Illinois and into parts of western Kentucky around midday. Surface dewpoints should reach the lower 60s F by the afternoon across much of southern Kentucky, In response, conditions should become favorable just south of the Ohio River where surface-based thunderstorms that develop in this area Tuesday afternoon could produce supercells and bowing line segments. Although wind damage would be the primary threat, hail would also be possible with the stronger updrafts. An isolated tornado or two will also be possible.

 

Conditions are forecast to be strong ahead of the short wave trough. This may be enough for squall line development during the late afternoon across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. If this occurs the wind damage threat could be maintained into the early evening. A chance for QLCS tornadoes would be possible. These are tornadoes that spin up quickly with little warning. The possible tornadoes will be associate with rotating cells embedded in the line.

 

I will continue to monitor the situation and post an update later today.

 

[nWo]

The severe threat Tuesday is still there. It may even be increasing some. At the moment the time period is between 5-10 pm EDT. With the greatest threat for possible tornadoes being 6-9 pm EDT.

 

 

 

This map shows the main area of concern for possible tornadoes.

 

 

Check back in the morning for an update.

[nWo]

This will quick and sweet. As of tonight it appears that the system has shifted and is taking a more southerly track. So the severe threat level has decreased from yesterday. I am still monitoring the situation and will update early Tuesday morning.

[nWo]

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible later today. Some may become strong to severe especially in parts of western and southcentral Kentucky. The mains threats look to be damaging winds and possible hail mainly in the sections of Kentucky in the Marginal Risk Area. The severe threat for Wednesday has diminished.