June 5, 201412 yr 75 % is pretty dang good, especially for a rookie. I agree he shouldn't have stolen third, but when you are as fast as him I can see why. Ricky Henderson was 80% for his career. Hamilton is a rookie. He is still figuring things out, it will get better. Lou Brock 75% (2nd all time in SB) Hamilton has 22 SB & has been caught 7 times. Last night was a very, very poor decision, but if he's on base, he has the green light. It's as simple as that. It's one of the cardinal sins in baseball. Probably an adage before your time, but agree with your assertion 100%. However, for the stat guy in your, Rickey Henderson stole 80% for his career. Maybe you should revisit that notion that 75 isn't great. The successful stolen base rate for the entire National League this season is 73.8%. Hamilton's success rate is 75.8%. For a player with his speed that really isn't a very good success rate. For comparison, Dee Gordon is 35/39 or 89.7%. I was always taught that you took the caught stealings away from the hits on a player's batting average in order to see how they affect his performance. I guess with the current emphasis on OBP instead of BA that is how it should be done. If you subtract those 7 caught stealing then his OBP drops to .265. Of course to be fair you'd need to add the successful ones into his total bases which would raise his slugging to .478.
June 5, 201412 yr ^ All stolen bases are not equal. Jay Bruce is 6 for 6 this year. Is he a better base stealer than Hamilton? 75% for a guy who attempts as many as Billy will is pretty good. Also speaks how great of season Gordon is having
June 5, 201412 yr ^ All stolen bases are not equal. Jay Bruce is 6 for 6 this year. Is he a better base stealer than Hamilton? 75% for a guy who attempts as many as Billy will is pretty good. Also speaks how great of season Gordon is having His average is just barely above the league average. The league average includes botched hit and runs and everything. Someone with his speed should be significantly above the league average period. According to SABR you have to be above 72% to even make attempting a steal worth hit. He is better than that but sometimes less is more. His speed on the bases even if he doesn't attempt to steal is much more valuable than sitting in the dugout because he attempted to steal a base in an unfavorable situation. Something that you guys are missing when comparing his success rate with Rickey's is that Rickey got on base at a much higher clip than Billy is. If you are on base 250+ times in a season like Rickey was when he was stealing 100 bases then getting thrown out 25% of the time doesn't hurt quite as much--you're still giving your RBI guys a lot of chances to drive you in. He was still scoring 110+ runs per season most years. Hamilton is on pace for about 65. If Billy starts getting on base more often it is okay for him to roll up numbers by being a volume stolen base guy. Until then he shouldn't be trying to steal 3rd with no one or two outs unless he has a walking lead.
June 5, 201412 yr Listened to the last couple of innings on the radio. Sounded like the BIG highlight of the day was the Reds' pitchers striking out 11, thereby generating free pizza for attendees.
June 5, 201412 yr So is Dusty taking a break from working his garden in Granite Bay, CA, kicking up his heels, having a late breakfast, and watching this game? Nah, he is trying to figure out how he is going to get blamed for this.
June 6, 201412 yr Jocketty no longer has his scapegoat in Dusty. All the issues of this team will fall squarely on him this time. I think he's screwed if the Reds don't make the playoffs
June 6, 201412 yr Jocketty no longer has his scapegoat in Dusty. All the issues of this team will fall squarely on him this time. I think he's screwed if the Reds don't make the playoffs Well, then he's screwed.
June 6, 201412 yr His average is just barely above the league average. The league average includes botched hit and runs and everything. Someone with his speed should be significantly above the league average period. According to SABR you have to be above 72% to even make attempting a steal worth hit. He is better than that but sometimes less is more. His speed on the bases even if he doesn't attempt to steal is much more valuable than sitting in the dugout because he attempted to steal a base in an unfavorable situation. Something that you guys are missing when comparing his success rate with Rickey's is that Rickey got on base at a much higher clip than Billy is. If you are on base 250+ times in a season like Rickey was when he was stealing 100 bases then getting thrown out 25% of the time doesn't hurt quite as much--you're still giving your RBI guys a lot of chances to drive you in. He was still scoring 110+ runs per season most years. Hamilton is on pace for about 65. If Billy starts getting on base more often it is okay for him to roll up numbers by being a volume stolen base guy. Until then he shouldn't be trying to steal 3rd with no one or two outs unless he has a walking lead. Thanks. Sometimes I don't think people understand simple stuff.
June 6, 201412 yr If he tries 100 times this season and swipes 75, I'll be tickled. I'll leave it at that. He's far below that pace.
June 6, 201412 yr Author He's far below that pace. Not too far off.....He's on pace for ~83 attempts. If he hadn't missed about a week or so earlier in the year he'd be right on track.
June 6, 201412 yr Not too far off.....He's on pace for ~83 attempts. If he hadn't missed about a week or so earlier in the year he'd be right on track. 83 compared to 100 is a big difference.
June 6, 201412 yr Thanks. Sometimes I don't think people understand simple stuff. Rickey Henderson didn't have Ryan Ludwick and Todd Frazier behind him. Sometimes people struggle seeing the big picture.
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