statmanhensley

With the way the schedule looks in the weeks leading into the postseason, I think they'll be challenged a few times. Madison Central (Jan. 31), Bryan Station (Feb. 8), Southwestern (Feb. 11) and Elizabethtown (Feb. 12) should be good games to test the Lady Rockets. I wouldn't even count out tonight's Mercer County game or North Laurel on Feb. 4 as being a game that could be challenging.

Brossart won by 3 in overtime but I'm not sure what the score was...only got th final margin update...sorry.

Sorry if my last post was too harsh sounding...totally didn't mean to. lol.

They aren't scrimmaging this time of year...I think you've gotten a little confused as this is a thread that someone just revisited a thread they had posted in from earlier in the season.

Final. This was one of the ugliest boys basketball games I've seen in a long, long time. Congrats to Todd Jefferson of BCHS for entering the 1,000 point club. BCHS advances to the semifinals where they will take on the winner of the Deming/Calvary Christian game.

Todd Jefferson from Bracken put the Polar Bears up at 42-13 and with a 2pt goal, he enters into the 1,000-pt club...CONGRATS!!! At the end of the 3rd quarter, Bracken leads 46-19.

At the end of the first half, Bracken leads 33-9. Glad to see Mr. Clayton Brooks refing the game...he's really good. Oh and the broadcasts are on http://www.bmustangs.com

At the end of the first quarter, BCHS leads a Nicholas County team that isn't very good at all by a score of 18-4. NCHS didn't score until just over 2:30 left in the opening quarter.

For events, that is used for the BOKC events because it is closer to that facility. If people are going to complain about the $3 parking fee, I can only imagine the yapping we'd hear if that particular parking garage was the primary parking place for this specific events. As mentioned before, the gravel lot by the baseball field will probably be the primary lot, but don't forget about the parking garage next to the tennis courts as well.

They do have a state championship in California, but like I said you have to win your Section o qualify. Then the participants are determined via power ratings. They have something like an Open Division where the best team regardless of class from the North play the best team regardless of class from the South. Then they have a DI, DII, DIII, and DIV champion. http://www.cifstate.org/sports/state/football/pdf/fb%20championship%2010%20Day%201.pdf

This was a Sectional championship instead of a state championship. In California, you have to win your Section to have a chance to play in the State title games which means there are a bunch of teams that win their Section but still don't play in the title game. With all that said, this video still does show two amazing plays.

There is no conspiracy on the Male issue...their bus did break down about 35 miles outside of Louisville. The individual schools are the ones that are no report schedules to the Riherds site...the reason it might not be on there is because it was canceled and there is no reason to keep a canceled game on the schedule.

League record in Ohio has no direct implications on making the playoffs...it just gives you a better chance.

From what I understand is that it doesn't matter if its public to public, public to private, private to private, or private to public...without the legitimate change of address, it doesn't matter what type of school you transfer from and then to, you're still ineligible.

I personally don't agree with neutral site games for anything other than state finals. You should be rewarded for what you do in the regular season and the KHSAA does have it on a rotation of which region is to host in the state semifinals. This entire "Ohio's system is so much better so Kentucky needs to be like Ohio"-garbage is silly. Why should a computer decide who makes the playoffs? The only things I would change about the current system are to only allow the district champion and runner-up to make the playoffs, make the regular season an 11-game schedule in 11 weeks (the season would still end a week earlier than what it does now), and have the district games the last games of the season (i.e. if a school has four district opponents, the last four games will be against district opponents). BUT with all that having been said, if it ain't broke don't fix it.

That isn't possible since you can only play 10 games in the regular season. However, from looking at the final Harbin Ratings that are posted on the OHSAA website, North Roalton HS (Division I, Region 1) and Caldwell HS (Division V, Region 19) were the two schools with the best record to not get into the playoffs. Each school had a record of 9-1.

I have an excel sheet set up to do most of the math...I just have to plug in the numbers and it spits out the averages. The only thing I do manually is figure up the amount as to which the winner should be victorious by. Its really simple to do BUT thanks for the kind words!

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System last week and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the second round of the 2010 postseason. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS predictions for all six classes in week two: 123.60 Trinity (Louisville) 111.40 Highlands 107.00 Ryle 105.15 St. Xavier 103.75 Boyle County 103.70 Bell County 103.40 Simon Kenton 103.10 Bowling Green 101.95 Ballard 98.90 John Hardin 98.30 Male 98.25 Christian County 97.45 DuPont Manual 96.90 Henry Clay 96.90 Dixie Heights 95.65 Covington Catholic 95.60 Scott County 94.25 Warren Central 93.80 Johnson Central 91.35 Newport Central Catholic 90.80 Mayfield 90.35 Henderson County 88.90 Allen County-Scottsville 88.40 Somerset 87.70 Knox Central 87.65 Collins 87.25 Pulaski County 86.50 Lone Oak 84.65 Danville 83.85 Harlan County 83.05 Lexington Catholic 82.55 Grayson County 82.50 Paducah Tilghman 82.45 Campbell County 82.45 Beechwood 81.00 Owensboro Catholic 80.85 Meade County 80.85 Holy Cross (Louisville) 80.10 Lafayette 79.85 Oldham County 79.70 Murray 79.70 Franklin-Simpson 79.45 Whitley County 79.40 Western 79.10 Hazard 77.50 DeSales 77.45 Holy Cross (Covington) 77.30 Central 77.05 Green County 76.85 East Jessamine 76.45 Clay County 76.40 Corbin 76.40 Christian Academy-Louisville 76.35 Belfry 75.70 Central Hardin 75.65 Fort Campbell 75.45 Fern Creek 75.00 Union County 75.00 Lawrence County 74.75 Mason County 74.30 West Jessamine 74.20 Anderson County 73.45 North Bullitt 72.20 Rowan County 70.60 Graves County 69.50 Prestonsburg 69.35 Russell County 68.90 Monroe County 68.65 Sheldon Clark 68.45 Lexington Christian 67.30 Caldwell County 66.80 Fairdale 66.45 Frankfort 65.30 Bullitt Central 64.35 Fairview 64.25 Breathitt County 59.60 Elizabethtown 58.95 North Oldham 58.40 Russellville 57.80 Ballard Memorial 55.85 Edmonson County 55.80 Raceland 55.55 Middlesboro 55.30 Bethlehem 55.25 Russell 54.85 Pikeville 53.90 Moore 52.90 Fort Knox 50.85 Garrard County 50.75 Williamsburg 47.95 Casey County 45.70 Bellevue 44.55 Pineville 44.45 Walton-Verona 43.45 Harlan 29.80 Leslie County CLASS 1A Ballard Memorial (6-5) at Mayfield (11-0) - MHS by 39 Bethlehem (7-4) at Lou. Holy Cross (10-1) - HC by 31.55 Bellevue (5-6) at Beechwood (8-3) - Beechwood by 42.75 Walton-Verona (8-3) at Frankfort (8-3) - FHS by 28 Raceland (7-4) at Lexington Christian (8-3) - LCA by 18.65 Fairview (10-1) at Williamsburg (7-4) - FHS by 7.6 Pineville (8-3) at Hazard (11-0) - HHS by 40.55 Harlan (5-6) at Pikeville (7-4) - PHS by 17.4 CLASS 2A Fort Campbell (5-6) at Murray (11-0) - MHS by 10.05 Caldwell Co. (7-4) at Owensboro Catholic (10-1) - OC by 19.7 Fort Knox (4-) at Monroe Co. (7-4) - MC by 22 Green Co. (8-3) at Danville (8-3) - DHS by 13.6 Cov. Holy Cross (6-5) at DeSales (7-4) - DHS by 6.05 Christian Academy-Louisville (7-4) at Newport Central Catholic (9-2) - NCC by 20.95 Middlesboro (6-5) at Prestonsburg (9-2) - Pburg by 19.95 Leslie Co. (4-7) at Corbin (9-2) - CHS by 52.6 CLASS 3A Edmonson Co. (7-4) at Paducah Tilghman (9-2) - PT by 32.65 Union Co. (9-2) at Russellville (8-3) - UC by 10.6 Moore (4-7) at Central (5-6) - CHS by 29.4 Elizabethtown (4-7) at North Oldham (7-4) - NO by 5.35 Garrard Co. (5-6) at Somerset (11-0) - SHS by 43.55 Casey Co. (8-3) at Breathitt Co. (7-4) - BC by 22.3 Belfry (7-4) at Mason Co. (10-1) - MC by 4.4 Russell (6-5) at Sheldon Clark (6-5) - SC by 19.4 CLASS 4A Franklin-Simpson (7-4) at Lone Oak (10-1) - LO by 12.8 Russell Co. (7-4) at Allen Co.-Scottsville (10-0) - ACS by 25.55 North Bullitt (8-3) at Western (8-3) - WHS by 11.95 Fairdale (8-3) at Collins (10-1) - MLC by 26.85 West Jessamine (8-3) at Lexington Catholic (6-5) - LC by 14.75 East Jessamine (8-3) at Boyle Co. (11-0) - BC by 32.9 Lawrence Co. (9-2) at Bell Co. (11-0) - BC by 34.7 Knox Central (9-2) at Rowan Co. (10-1) - KC by 9.5 CLASS 5A Bowling Green (9-2) at Christian Co. (9-2) - CC by 1.15 Grayson Co. (9-2) at Warren Central (9-2) - WC by 17.7 Oldham Co. (7-4) at John Hardin (11-0) - JH by 25.05 Bullitt Central (7-4) at Anderson Co. (8-3) - AC by 14.9 Dixie Heights (6-5) at Highlands (10-1) - HHS by 20.5 Covington Catholic at Johnson Central (9-2) - JC by 4.15 Clay County (8-3) at Pulaski Co. (10-1) - PC by 16.8 Whitley Co. (6-5) at Harlan Co. (9-2) - HC by 10.4 CLASS 6A Fern Creek (4-7) at Henderson Co. (8-2) - HC by 20.9 Graves Co. (6-5) at Male (8-3) - H by 33.7 Lafayette (6-5) at Meade Co. (7-4) - MC by 6.75 Central Hardin (9-2) at Scott Co. (8-3) - SC by 25.9 Ballard (8-3) at St. Xavier (9-2) - X by 9.2 Manual (6-5) at Trinity (10-1) - T by 32.15 Campbell Co. (6-5) at Ryle (10-1) - LAR by 30.55 Simon Kenton (9-2) at Henry Clay (9-2) - SK by 0.5

You would since the number correctly got the margin of victory correct for you team..lol...jk.

I've been asked to work the event again this year and to coordinate the press table and getting people to work the clock and scoreboard stats. I've decided to be the PA announcer for the event. I'm really looking forward to the Male/Taft, Holmes/Aiken and Mason County/Princeton games. The other three just aren't that interesting especially CovCath/Cincy St. X...I simply can't stand the slow down game that St. X and the rest of the GCL South runs...boring boring boring. The only to look forward to for this game is the student sections and to see how raucous they get.

The week two predictions will be posted later on tonight.

Sorry for the delay in getting these up. A couple notes...RED font will mean a game where the predicted team lost and BLUE font will be a win where the prediction was within seven points. The overall record this week is 80-13, which is approximately an 86 percent winning percentage. Class 1A (14-2) Region One (4) Caverna at (1) Mayfield – MHS by 76.8 (MHS wins by 49) (3) Ballard Memorial at (2) KCD – KCD by 6.45 (BM wins by 20) (4) Fulton County at (1) Lou. Holy Cross – HC by 62.75 (HC wins by 59) (3) Bethlehem at (2) Crittenden County – CC by 21.6 (BHS wins by 14) Region Two (4) Gallatin County at (1) Beechwood – BHS by 76.6 (BHS wins by 55) (3) Bellevue at (2) Eminence – BHS by 15.7 (BHS wins by 20) (4) Bishop Brossart at (1) Frankfort – FHS by 32.1 (FHS wins by 47) (3) Bracken County at (2) Walton-Verona – W-V by 43.1 (W-V wins by 46) Region Three (4) Berea at (1) Lexington Christian – LCA by 59.25 (LCA wins by 30) (3) Raceland at (2) Campbellsville – RHS by 5.75 (RHS wins by 12) (4) Nicholas County at (1) Williamsburg – WHS by 10.3 (WHS wins by 34) (3) Lynn Camp at (2) Fairview – FHS by 35.65 (FHS wins by 42) Region Four (4) Allen Central at (1) Hazard – HHS by 54.45 (HHS wins by 58) (3) Pineville at (2) Betsy Layne – PHS by 10.1 (PHS wins by 2) (4) Jenkins at (1) Pikeville – PHS by 59.95 (PHS wins by 55) (3) Paintsville at (2) Harlan – HHS by 31.35 (HHS wins by 40) Class 2A (13-3) Region One (4) Todd County Central at (1) Murray – MHS by 60.15 (MHS wins by 49) (3) Trigg County at (2) Fort Campbell – FC by 27.35 (FC wins by 14) (4) Reidland at (1) Owensboro Catholic – OC by 42.55 (OC wins by 47) (3) Hancock County at (2) Caldwell County – CC by 7.6 (CC wins by 21) Region Two (4) Fort Knox at (1) Glasgow – GHS by 29.25 (FK wins by 2) (3) Monroe County at (2) Washington County – WC by 6 (MC wins by 1) (4) Metcalfe County at (1) Danville – DHS by 72.15 (DHS wins by 49) (3) Bardstown at (2) Green County – GC by 33.05 (GC wins by 25) Region Three (4) Lloyd Memorial at (1) DeSales – DHS by 43 (DHS wins by 45) (3) Carroll County at (2) Covington Holy Cross – HC by 45.4 (HC wins by 38) (4) Owen County at (1) Newport Central Catholic – NCC by 67.95 (NCC wins by 50) (3) Newport at (2) Christian Academy-Lou. – CAL by 25.45 (CAL wins by 9) Region Four (4) Knott County Central at (1) Prestonsburg – Pburg by 72.65 (Pburg wins by 66) (3) Morgan County at (2) Middlesboro – MHS by 41.2 (MHS wins by 39) (4) Bath County at (1) Corbin – CHS by 61 (CHS wins by 47) (3) Leslie County at (2) Shelby Valley – SV by 14.7 (LC wins by 4) Class 3A (12-3) Region One (4) Butler County at (1) Paducah Tilghman – PT by 50.75 (PT wins by 36) (3) Webster County at (2) Edmonson County – EC by 30.05 (EC wins by 21) (4) McLean County at (1) Russellville – RHS by 43.9 (RHS wins by 41) (3) Hart County at (2) Union County – UC by 53.2 (UC wins by 34) Region Two (4) Spencer County at (1) Central – CHS by 40.6 (CHS wins by 28) (3) Moore at (2) Henry County – HC by 6.85 (MHS wins by 6) (3) Western Hills at (2) Elizabethtown – Etown by 23.35 (Etown wins by 5) Region Three (4) Magoffin County at (1) Somerset – SHS by 70.5 (SHS wins by 54) (3) Garrard County at (2) Estill County – EC by 9.3 (GC wins by 22) (4) Wayne County at (1) Breathitt County – BC by 20.3 (BC wins by 27) (3) Powell County at (2) Casey County – CC by 16 (CC wins by 21) Region Four (4) East Ridge at (1) Mason County – MC by 50.5 (MC wins by 21) (3) West Carter at (2) Belfry – BHS by 22.35 (BHS wins by 35) (4) Fleming County at (1) Sheldon Clark – SC by 49.5 (SC wins by 27) (3) Pike County Central at (2) Russell – PCC by 9.65 (RHS wins by 6) Class 4A (13-2) Region One (4) Warren East at (1) Lone Oak – LO by 60.5 (LO wins by 36) (3) Calloway County at (2) Franklin-Simpson – F-S by 35.8 (F-S wins by 34) (3) Russell County at (2) Hopkins Co. Central – RC by 5.4 (RC wins by 21) Region Two (4) LaRue County at (1) Western – WHS by 28.05 (WHS wins by 13) (3) Valley at (2) North Bullitt – NB by 27.25 (NB wins by 24) (4) Breckinridge Co. at (1) Collins – MLC by 68.9 (MLC wins by 50) (3) Marion County at (2) Fairdale – MC by 5.1 (FHS wins by 3) Region Three (4) West Jessamine at (1) Holmes – HHS by 21.9 (WJ wins by 3) (3) Harrison County at (2) Lexington Catholic – LC by 35.65 (LC wins by 8) (4) Bourbon County at (1) Boyle County – Boyle by 76 (Boyle wins by 59) (3) East Jessamine at (2) Franklin County – EJ by 3.15 (EJ wins by 23) Region Four (4) Boyd County at (1) Bell County – Bell by 80.5 (Bell wins by 52) (3) Rockcastle County at (2) Lawrence County – LC by 18.55 (LC wins by 20) (4) Madison Southern at (1) Rowan County – RC by 44.9 (RC wins by 42) (3) Greenup County at (2) Knox Central – KC by 27.2 (KC wins by 47) Class 5A (14-2) Region One (4) Barren County at (1) Christian County – CC by 48.25 (CC wins by 54) (3) Madisonville at (2) Bowling Green – BG by 30.75 (BG wins by 26) (4) Ohio County at (1) Warren Central – WC by 54.35 (WC wins by 52) (3) Grayson County at (2) Owensboro – OHS by 9.5 (GC wins by 6) Region Two (4) Jeffersontown at (1) John Hardin – JH by 29.95 (JH wins by 43) (3) Doss at (2) Oldham County – OC by 17.7 (OC wins by 10) (4) Waggener at (1) Anderson County – AC by 42.4 (AC wins by 44) (3) South Oldham at (2) Bullitt Central – BC by 0.55 (BC wins by 7) Region Three (4) Woodford County at (1) Highlands – HHS by 62.8 (HHS wins by 62) (3) Dixie Heights at (2) Montgomery County – DH by 26.75 (DH wins by 22) (4) Scott at (1) Johnson Central – JC by 40.45 (FC wins by 34) (3) Ashland Blazer at (2) Covington Catholic – CCH by 19.6 (CCH wins by 24) Region Four (4) Perry County Central at (1) Pulaski County – Pulaski by 30.2 (Pulaski wins by 31) (3) Lincoln County at (2) Clay County – CC by 21.65 (CC wins by 40) (4) Mercer County at (1) Harlan County – HC by 30.45 (HC wins by 37) (3) Whitley Co. at (2) Southwestern – SW by 6 (WC wins by 45) Class 6A (14-1) Region One (3) Marshall County at (2) Fern Creek – FC by 21.65 (FC wins by 19) (4) Apollo at (1) Male – H by 44.7 (H wins by 52) (3) Southern at (2) Graves County – GC by 19.8 (GC wins by 31) Region Two (4) Paul Dunbar at (1) Meade County – MC by 28.15 (MC wins by 25) (3) North Hardin at (2) Lafayette – LHS by 0.85 (LHS wins by 18) (4) Nelson County at (1) Scott County – SC by 21.25 (SC wins by 41) (3) Bryan Station at (2) Central Hardin – CH by 14.7 (CH wins by 20) Region Three (4) Seneca at (1) St. Xavier – X by 20.85 (X wins by 15) (3) Butler at (2) Ballard – Ballard by 30.2 (Ballard wins by 30) (4) Pleasure Ridge Park at (1) Trinity – T by 41.3 (T wins by 49) (3) Eastern at (2) Manual – M by 8.35 (M wins by 26) Region Four (4) Madison Central at (1) Ryle – LAR by 51.4 (LAR wins by 41) (3) Campbell County at (2) George Rogers Clark – GRC by 4.85 (CC wins by 1) (4) Conner at (1) Henry Clay – HC by 21.3 (HC wins by 12) (3) Tates Creek at (1) Simon Kenton – SK by 36.55 (SK wins by 10)

kyvince, here is what I found through looking at last year's results and posted in this year's Class 1A predictions...and as far as Dixie Heights being ranked so high, it is just cause the two power ratings I use have them that high. Knowing that Pike isn't going to be playing, I think Montgomery County could make it a lot closer than the prediction if not even beat them.

I personally hope you're right...lol. Once a Rocket, always a Rocket.

Here is what I could come up with from last year...the predictions were 153-26 from the first round until the state semifinals...I don't do the state finals because I can never find an updated version of either the Cantrall Rating or the Litkenhous Rating or both. It was something I decided the first year I did the ratings so I've continued it due to the same reason every year for the finals. 2009 semifinals (10-2) 1A – two wins 2A – two wins (one within a touchdown of prediction) 3A – one win, one loss 4A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction) 5A – one win, one loss (Highlands predicted to win by 40.95 and won by 40) 6A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction) 2009 region finals (19-5) 1A – 4-0 (1 within a touchdown) 2A – 3-1 (3 within a touchdown) 3A – 3-1 4A – 4-0 (all within a touchdown, Boyle Co. predicted to beat LexCath by 14.5 and won by 14) 5A – 3-1 (2 within a touchdown, John Hardin predicted to win by 21.85 and won by 22, & one loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost) 6A – 2-2 (one within a touchdown & one loss was predicted to be a one point win for the team that eventually lost) 2009 second round (41-7) 1A – 6-2 (3 within a touchdown & one of the loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost) 2A – 8-0 (4 within a touchdown, Murray predicted to beat Hancock County by 36.05 and won by 36, NewCath predicted to beat CAL by 20.2 and won by 20, & Cordin predicted to beat Shelby Valley by 17.95 and won by 17) 3A – 5-3 (only one within a touchdown) 4A – 8-0 (three within a touchdown) 5A – 7-1 (two within a touchdown & Christian Co. predicted to beat Warren Central by 6.05 and won by 6) 6A – 7-1 (5 within a touchdown & one loss had Bryan Station predicted to beat Henry Clay by one BUT Henry Clay actually won by one) 2009 first round (83-12) 1A – 15-1 (6 within a touchdown) 2A – 16-0 (7 within a touchdown & Danville predicted to beat Glasgow by 13.35 and won by 14) 3A – 14-2 (5 within a touchdown, Union Co. predicted to beat Adair Co. by 41.06 and won by 41, & Breathitt Co. predicted to beat Wayne Co. by 25.35 and win by 26) 4A – 11-4 (5 within a touchdown) 5A – 12-4 (3 within a touchdown and Owensboro predicted to beat Grayson Co. by 27.8 and won by 28) 6A – 15-1 (5 within a touchdown, Henderson Co. predicted to beat Central Hardin by 14.2 and won by 14, & duPont Manual predicted to beat Conner by 10.2 and won by 11)