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2010 Hensley Rating System Rankings and Round 2 Predictions (All Classes)


statmanhensley
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Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System last week and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the second round of the 2010 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS predictions for all six classes in week two:

 

 

 

123.60 Trinity (Louisville)

111.40 Highlands

107.00 Ryle

105.15 St. Xavier

103.75 Boyle County

103.70 Bell County

103.40 Simon Kenton

103.10 Bowling Green

101.95 Ballard

98.90 John Hardin

98.30 Male

98.25 Christian County

97.45 DuPont Manual

96.90 Henry Clay

96.90 Dixie Heights

95.65 Covington Catholic

95.60 Scott County

94.25 Warren Central

93.80 Johnson Central

91.35 Newport Central Catholic

90.80 Mayfield

90.35 Henderson County

88.90 Allen County-Scottsville

88.40 Somerset

87.70 Knox Central

87.65 Collins

87.25 Pulaski County

86.50 Lone Oak

84.65 Danville

83.85 Harlan County

83.05 Lexington Catholic

82.55 Grayson County

82.50 Paducah Tilghman

82.45 Campbell County

82.45 Beechwood

81.00 Owensboro Catholic

80.85 Meade County

80.85 Holy Cross (Louisville)

80.10 Lafayette

79.85 Oldham County

79.70 Murray

79.70 Franklin-Simpson

79.45 Whitley County

79.40 Western

79.10 Hazard

77.50 DeSales

77.45 Holy Cross (Covington)

77.30 Central

77.05 Green County

76.85 East Jessamine

76.45 Clay County

76.40 Corbin

76.40 Christian Academy-Louisville

76.35 Belfry

75.70 Central Hardin

75.65 Fort Campbell

75.45 Fern Creek

75.00 Union County

75.00 Lawrence County

74.75 Mason County

74.30 West Jessamine

74.20 Anderson County

73.45 North Bullitt

72.20 Rowan County

70.60 Graves County

69.50 Prestonsburg

69.35 Russell County

68.90 Monroe County

68.65 Sheldon Clark

68.45 Lexington Christian

67.30 Caldwell County

66.80 Fairdale

66.45 Frankfort

65.30 Bullitt Central

64.35 Fairview

64.25 Breathitt County

59.60 Elizabethtown

58.95 North Oldham

58.40 Russellville

57.80 Ballard Memorial

55.85 Edmonson County

55.80 Raceland

55.55 Middlesboro

55.30 Bethlehem

55.25 Russell

54.85 Pikeville

53.90 Moore

52.90 Fort Knox

50.85 Garrard County

50.75 Williamsburg

47.95 Casey County

45.70 Bellevue

44.55 Pineville

44.45 Walton-Verona

43.45 Harlan

29.80 Leslie County

 

 

CLASS 1A

Ballard Memorial (6-5) at Mayfield (11-0) - MHS by 39

Bethlehem (7-4) at Lou. Holy Cross (10-1) - HC by 31.55

Bellevue (5-6) at Beechwood (8-3) - Beechwood by 42.75

Walton-Verona (8-3) at Frankfort (8-3) - FHS by 28

Raceland (7-4) at Lexington Christian (8-3) - LCA by 18.65

Fairview (10-1) at Williamsburg (7-4) - FHS by 7.6

Pineville (8-3) at Hazard (11-0) - HHS by 40.55

Harlan (5-6) at Pikeville (7-4) - PHS by 17.4

 

CLASS 2A

Fort Campbell (5-6) at Murray (11-0) - MHS by 10.05

Caldwell Co. (7-4) at Owensboro Catholic (10-1) - OC by 19.7

Fort Knox (4-) at Monroe Co. (7-4) - MC by 22

Green Co. (8-3) at Danville (8-3) - DHS by 13.6

Cov. Holy Cross (6-5) at DeSales (7-4) - DHS by 6.05

Christian Academy-Louisville (7-4) at Newport Central Catholic (9-2) - NCC by 20.95

Middlesboro (6-5) at Prestonsburg (9-2) - Pburg by 19.95

Leslie Co. (4-7) at Corbin (9-2) - CHS by 52.6

 

CLASS 3A

Edmonson Co. (7-4) at Paducah Tilghman (9-2) - PT by 32.65

Union Co. (9-2) at Russellville (8-3) - UC by 10.6

Moore (4-7) at Central (5-6) - CHS by 29.4

Elizabethtown (4-7) at North Oldham (7-4) - NO by 5.35

Garrard Co. (5-6) at Somerset (11-0) - SHS by 43.55

Casey Co. (8-3) at Breathitt Co. (7-4) - BC by 22.3

Belfry (7-4) at Mason Co. (10-1) - MC by 4.4

Russell (6-5) at Sheldon Clark (6-5) - SC by 19.4

 

CLASS 4A

Franklin-Simpson (7-4) at Lone Oak (10-1) - LO by 12.8

Russell Co. (7-4) at Allen Co.-Scottsville (10-0) - ACS by 25.55

North Bullitt (8-3) at Western (8-3) - WHS by 11.95

Fairdale (8-3) at Collins (10-1) - MLC by 26.85

West Jessamine (8-3) at Lexington Catholic (6-5) - LC by 14.75

East Jessamine (8-3) at Boyle Co. (11-0) - BC by 32.9

Lawrence Co. (9-2) at Bell Co. (11-0) - BC by 34.7

Knox Central (9-2) at Rowan Co. (10-1) - KC by 9.5

 

CLASS 5A

Bowling Green (9-2) at Christian Co. (9-2) - CC by 1.15

Grayson Co. (9-2) at Warren Central (9-2) - WC by 17.7

Oldham Co. (7-4) at John Hardin (11-0) - JH by 25.05

Bullitt Central (7-4) at Anderson Co. (8-3) - AC by 14.9

Dixie Heights (6-5) at Highlands (10-1) - HHS by 20.5

Covington Catholic at Johnson Central (9-2) - JC by 4.15

Clay County (8-3) at Pulaski Co. (10-1) - PC by 16.8

Whitley Co. (6-5) at Harlan Co. (9-2) - HC by 10.4

 

CLASS 6A

Fern Creek (4-7) at Henderson Co. (8-2) - HC by 20.9

Graves Co. (6-5) at Male (8-3) - H by 33.7

Lafayette (6-5) at Meade Co. (7-4) - MC by 6.75

Central Hardin (9-2) at Scott Co. (8-3) - SC by 25.9

Ballard (8-3) at St. Xavier (9-2) - X by 9.2

Manual (6-5) at Trinity (10-1) - T by 32.15

Campbell Co. (6-5) at Ryle (10-1) - LAR by 30.55

Simon Kenton (9-2) at Henry Clay (9-2) - SK by 0.5

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Good work stat as this must have taken some time to put together for the bgp nation to view. :thumb:

 

I have an excel sheet set up to do most of the math...I just have to plug in the numbers and it spits out the averages. The only thing I do manually is figure up the amount as to which the winner should be victorious by. Its really simple to do BUT thanks for the kind words!

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CLASS 1A(8-0)

Ballard Memorial (6-5) at Mayfield (11-0) - MHS by 39

Bethlehem (7-4) at Lou. Holy Cross (10-1) - HC by 31.55

Bellevue (5-6) at Beechwood (8-3) - Beechwood by 42.75

Walton-Verona (8-3) at Frankfort (8-3) - FHS by 28

Raceland (7-4) at Lexington Christian (8-3) - LCA by 18.65

Fairview (10-1) at Williamsburg (7-4) - FHS by 7.6

Pineville (8-3) at Hazard (11-0) - HHS by 40.55

Harlan (5-6) at Pikeville (7-4) - PHS by 17.4

 

CLASS 2A(7-1)

Fort Campbell (5-6) at Murray (11-0) - MHS by 10.05

Caldwell Co. (7-4) at Owensboro Catholic (10-1) - OC by 19.7

Fort Knox (4-) at Monroe Co. (7-4) - MC by 22

Green Co. (8-3) at Danville (8-3) - DHS by 13.6

Cov. Holy Cross (6-5) at DeSales (7-4) - DHS by 6.05

Christian Academy-Louisville (7-4) at Newport Central Catholic (9-2) - NCC by 20.95

Middlesboro (6-5) at Prestonsburg (9-2) - Pburg by 19.95

Leslie Co. (4-7) at Corbin (9-2) - CHS by 52.6

 

CLASS 3A(5-3)

Edmonson Co. (7-4) at Paducah Tilghman (9-2) - PT by 32.65

Union Co. (9-2) at Russellville (8-3) - UC by 10.6

Moore (4-7) at Central (5-6) - CHS by 29.4

Elizabethtown (4-7) at North Oldham (7-4) - NO by 5.35

Garrard Co. (5-6) at Somerset (11-0) - SHS by 43.55

Casey Co. (8-3) at Breathitt Co. (7-4) - BC by 22.3

Belfry (7-4) at Mason Co. (10-1) - MC by 4.4

Russell (6-5) at Sheldon Clark (6-5) - SC by 19.4

 

CLASS 4A(8-0)

Franklin-Simpson (7-4) at Lone Oak (10-1) - LO by 12.8

Russell Co. (7-4) at Allen Co.-Scottsville (10-0) - ACS by 25.55

North Bullitt (8-3) at Western (8-3) - WHS by 11.95

Fairdale (8-3) at Collins (10-1) - MLC by 26.85

West Jessamine (8-3) at Lexington Catholic (6-5) - LC by 14.75

East Jessamine (8-3) at Boyle Co. (11-0) - BC by 32.9

Lawrence Co. (9-2) at Bell Co. (11-0) - BC by 34.7

Knox Central (9-2) at Rowan Co. (10-1) - KC by 9.5

 

CLASS 5A(8-0)

Bowling Green (9-2) at Christian Co. (9-2) - CC by 1.15

Grayson Co. (9-2) at Warren Central (9-2) - WC by 17.7

Oldham Co. (7-4) at John Hardin (11-0) - JH by 25.05

Bullitt Central (7-4) at Anderson Co. (8-3) - AC by 14.9

Dixie Heights (6-5) at Highlands (10-1) - HHS by 20.5

Covington Catholic at Johnson Central (9-2) - JC by 4.15

Clay County (8-3) at Pulaski Co. (10-1) - PC by 16.8

Whitley Co. (6-5) at Harlan Co. (9-2) - HC by 10.4

 

CLASS 6A(7-1)

Fern Creek (4-7) at Henderson Co. (8-2) - HC by 20.9

Graves Co. (6-5) at Male (8-3) - H by 33.7

Lafayette (6-5) at Meade Co. (7-4) - MC by 6.75

Central Hardin (9-2) at Scott Co. (8-3) - SC by 25.9

Ballard (8-3) at St. Xavier (9-2) - X by 9.2

Manual (6-5) at Trinity (10-1) - T by 32.15

Campbell Co. (6-5) at Ryle (10-1) - LAR by 30.55

Simon Kenton (9-2) at Henry Clay (9-2) - SK by 0.5

 

 

Looks like 43-5, 90%:thumb:

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