Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 4A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

105.05 Bell County

104.60 Boyle County

100.80 Lone Oak

89.05 Allen County-Scottsville

89.05 Collins

87.90 Holmes

84.70 Lexington Catholic

84.65 Knox Central

80.00 Western

79.30 Franklin-Simpson

76.15 Marion County

75.45 East Jessamine

74.00 Lawrence County

73.10 North Bullitt

72.55 Rowan County

72.00 West Jessamine

68.40 Russell County

66.30 Franklin County

65.05 Fairdale

63.45 Greenup County

61.45 Rockcastle County

57.95 LaRue County

57.00 Hopkins County Central

55.05 Harrison County

51.85 Valley

49.50 Calloway County

46.30 Warren East

34.60 Bourbon County

33.65 Madison Southern

30.55 Boyd County

26.15 Breckinridge County

 

 

 

Region One

(4) Warren East at (1) Lone Oak – LO by 60.5

(3) Calloway County at (2) Franklin-Simpson – F-S by 35.8

(3) Russell County at (2) Hopkins Co. Central – RC by 5.4

Region Two

(4) LaRue County at (1) Western – WHS by 28.05

(3) Valley at (2) North Bullitt – NB by 27.25

(4) Breckinridge Co. at (1) Collins – MLC by 68.9

(3) Marion County at (2) Fairdale – MC by 5.1

Region Three

(4) West Jessamine at (1) Holmes – HHS by 21.9

(3) Harrison County at (2) Lexington Catholic – LC by 35.65

(4) Bourbon County at (1) Boyle County – Boyle by 76

(3) East Jessamine at (2) Franklin County – EJ by 3.15

Region Four

(4) Boyd County at (1) Bell County – Bell by 80.5

(3) Rockcastle County at (2) Lawrence County – LC by 18.55

(4) Madison Southern at (1) Rowan County – RC by 44.9

(3) Greenup County at (2) Knox Central – KC by 27.2

Edited November 2, 201015 yr by mcpapa

Boyle by 76 and Bell by 80. I love it. Truth be told, if both teams play their starters the whole game the predictions are most likely accurate.

 

I do think LexCath's ranking all year has been inflated. We'll find out soon.

 

I love these rankings and look forward to them every year. Good work.

Edited November 2, 201015 yr by PurplePride92

Boyle by 76 and Bell by 80. I love it. Truth be told, if both teams play their starters the whole game the predictions are most likely accurate.

 

I do think LexCath's ranking all year has been inflated. We'll find out soon.

 

I love these rankings and look forward to them every year. Good work.

 

I will agree don't think that Bell and Boyle will win by those margins but I do like looking at them keep up the good work Statman.

ttt

ttt

The most interesting game will be the Lawrence Co and Rockcastle game. I look for Rock to win this game. They have played the tougher schedule.

The most interesting game will be the Lawrence Co and Rockcastle game. I look for Rock to win this game. They have played the tougher schedule.

 

I personally hope you're right...lol. Once a Rocket, always a Rocket.