Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 1A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

92.70 Mayfield

83.90 Beechwood

80.70 Holy Cross (Louisville)

77.40 Hazard

70.90 Lexington Christian

67.80 Crittenden County

64.35 Frankfort

63.30 Fairview

56.40 Kentucky Country Day

55.95 Ballard Memorial

55.65 Raceland

54.50 Pikeville

52.20 Bethlehem

48.00 Walton-Verona

47.25 Williamsburg

45.80 Bellevue

45.45 Pineville

43.90 Campbellsville

42.95 Nicholas County

41.45 Harlan

38.25 Bishop Brossart

33.65 Lynn Camp

29.35 Betsy Layne

28.95 Allen Central

24.10 Eminence

23.95 Fulton County

21.90 Caverna

16.65 Berea

16.10 Paintsville

13.30 Gallatin County

10.90 Bracken County

0.55 Jenkins

 

 

 

Region One (4) Caverna at (1) Mayfield – MHS by 76.8

(3) Ballard Memorial at (2) KCD – KCD by 6.45

(4) Fulton County at (1) Lou. Holy Cross – HC by 62.75

(3) Bethlehem at (2) Crittenden County – CC by 21.6

Region Two

(4) Gallatin County at (1) Beechwood – BHS by 76.6

(3) Bellevue at (2) Eminence – BHS by 15.7

(4) Bishop Brossart at (1) Frankfort – FHS by 32.1

(3) Bracken County at (2) Walton-Verona – W-V by 43.1

Region Three

(4) Berea at (1) Lexington Christian – LCA by 59.25

(3) Raceland at (2) Campbellsville – RHS by 5.75

(4) Nicholas County at (1) Williamsburg – WHS by 10.3

(3) Lynn Camp at (2) Fairview – FHS by 35.65

Region Four

(4) Allen Central at (1) Hazard – HHS by 54.45

(3) Pineville at (2) Betsy Layne – PHS by 10.1

(4) Jenkins at (1) Pikeville – PHS by 59.95

(3) Paintsville at (2) Harlan – HHS by 31.35

How is Raceland only a 5.75 favorite when their rating is 55.65 & Campbellsville is 43.90? OKAY...home field advantage...never mind.

ttt

ttt

Thanks for the work, I hope it plays out just as your system predicts

I recall you doing this before, how accurate was it last year percentage wise and did it correctly predict the winners in each class?

Once again you obviously have done alot of work statman. I don't know much about how any of you past predictions have came out but I have to say that imo your ratings look pretty good. :thumb:

I recall you doing this before, how accurate was it last year percentage wise and did it correctly predict the winners in each class?

 

 

Here is what I could come up with from last year...the predictions were 153-26 from the first round until the state semifinals...I don't do the state finals because I can never find an updated version of either the Cantrall Rating or the Litkenhous Rating or both. It was something I decided the first year I did the ratings so I've continued it due to the same reason every year for the finals.

 

 

2009 semifinals (10-2)

1A – two wins

2A – two wins (one within a touchdown of prediction)

3A – one win, one loss

4A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction)

5A – one win, one loss (Highlands predicted to win by 40.95 and won by 40)

6A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction)

 

2009 region finals (19-5)

1A – 4-0 (1 within a touchdown)

2A – 3-1 (3 within a touchdown)

3A – 3-1

4A – 4-0 (all within a touchdown, Boyle Co. predicted to beat LexCath by 14.5 and won by 14)

5A – 3-1 (2 within a touchdown, John Hardin predicted to win by 21.85 and won by 22, & one loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost)

6A – 2-2 (one within a touchdown & one loss was predicted to be a one point win for the team that eventually lost)

 

2009 second round (41-7)

1A – 6-2 (3 within a touchdown & one of the loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost)

2A – 8-0 (4 within a touchdown, Murray predicted to beat Hancock County by 36.05 and won by 36, NewCath predicted to beat CAL by 20.2 and won by 20, & Cordin predicted to beat Shelby Valley by 17.95 and won by 17)

3A – 5-3 (only one within a touchdown)

4A – 8-0 (three within a touchdown)

5A – 7-1 (two within a touchdown & Christian Co. predicted to beat Warren Central by 6.05 and won by 6)

6A – 7-1 (5 within a touchdown & one loss had Bryan Station predicted to beat Henry Clay by one BUT Henry Clay actually won by one)

 

2009 first round (83-12)

1A – 15-1 (6 within a touchdown)

2A – 16-0 (7 within a touchdown & Danville predicted to beat Glasgow by 13.35 and won by 14)

3A – 14-2 (5 within a touchdown, Union Co. predicted to beat Adair Co. by 41.06 and won by 41, & Breathitt Co. predicted to beat Wayne Co. by 25.35 and win by 26)

4A – 11-4 (5 within a touchdown)

5A – 12-4 (3 within a touchdown and Owensboro predicted to beat Grayson Co. by 27.8 and won by 28)

6A – 15-1 (5 within a touchdown, Henderson Co. predicted to beat Central Hardin by 14.2 and won by 14, & duPont Manual predicted to beat Conner by 10.2 and won by 11)

I recall you doing this before, how accurate was it last year percentage wise and did it correctly predict the winners in each class?

 

 

Here is what I could come up with from last year...the predictions were 153-26 from the first round until the state semifinals...I don't do the state finals because I can never find an updated version of either the Cantrall Rating or the Litkenhous Rating or both. It was something I decided the first year I did the ratings so I've continued it due to the same reason every year for the finals.

 

 

2009 semifinals (10-2)

1A – two wins

2A – two wins (one within a touchdown of prediction)

3A – one win, one loss

4A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction)

5A – one win, one loss (Highlands predicted to win by 40.95 and won by 40)

6A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction)

 

2009 region finals (19-5)

1A – 4-0 (1 within a touchdown)

2A – 3-1 (3 within a touchdown)

3A – 3-1

4A – 4-0 (all within a touchdown, Boyle Co. predicted to beat LexCath by 14.5 and won by 14)

5A – 3-1 (2 within a touchdown, John Hardin predicted to win by 21.85 and won by 22, & one loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost)

6A – 2-2 (one within a touchdown & one loss was predicted to be a one point win for the team that eventually lost)

 

2009 second round (41-7)

1A – 6-2 (3 within a touchdown & one of the loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost)

2A – 8-0 (4 within a touchdown, Murray predicted to beat Hancock County by 36.05 and won by 36, NewCath predicted to beat CAL by 20.2 and won by 20, & Cordin predicted to beat Shelby Valley by 17.95 and won by 17)

3A – 5-3 (only one within a touchdown)

4A – 8-0 (three within a touchdown)

5A – 7-1 (two within a touchdown & Christian Co. predicted to beat Warren Central by 6.05 and won by 6)

6A – 7-1 (5 within a touchdown & one loss had Bryan Station predicted to beat Henry Clay by one BUT Henry Clay actually won by one)

 

2009 first round (83-12)

1A – 15-1 (6 within a touchdown)

2A – 16-0 (7 within a touchdown & Danville predicted to beat Glasgow by 13.35 and won by 14)

3A – 14-2 (5 within a touchdown, Union Co. predicted to beat Adair Co. by 41.06 and won by 41, & Breathitt Co. predicted to beat Wayne Co. by 25.35 and win by 26)

4A – 11-4 (5 within a touchdown)

5A – 12-4 (3 within a touchdown and Owensboro predicted to beat Grayson Co. by 27.8 and won by 28)

6A – 15-1 (5 within a touchdown, Henderson Co. predicted to beat Central Hardin by 14.2 and won by 14, & duPont Manual predicted to beat Conner by 10.2 and won by 11)

Thanks, I enjoy looking over these and this helps better understand it. Again I appreciate your work