statmanhensley

Here is what I could come up with from last year...the predictions were 153-26 from the first round until the state semifinals...I don't do the state finals because I can never find an updated version of either the Cantrall Rating or the Litkenhous Rating or both. It was something I decided the first year I did the ratings so I've continued it due to the same reason every year for the finals. 2009 semifinals (10-2) 1A – two wins 2A – two wins (one within a touchdown of prediction) 3A – one win, one loss 4A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction) 5A – one win, one loss (Highlands predicted to win by 40.95 and won by 40) 6A – two wins (both within a touchdown of prediction) 2009 region finals (19-5) 1A – 4-0 (1 within a touchdown) 2A – 3-1 (3 within a touchdown) 3A – 3-1 4A – 4-0 (all within a touchdown, Boyle Co. predicted to beat LexCath by 14.5 and won by 14) 5A – 3-1 (2 within a touchdown, John Hardin predicted to win by 21.85 and won by 22, & one loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost) 6A – 2-2 (one within a touchdown & one loss was predicted to be a one point win for the team that eventually lost) 2009 second round (41-7) 1A – 6-2 (3 within a touchdown & one of the loss was predicted to be a one point win by the team that eventually lost) 2A – 8-0 (4 within a touchdown, Murray predicted to beat Hancock County by 36.05 and won by 36, NewCath predicted to beat CAL by 20.2 and won by 20, & Cordin predicted to beat Shelby Valley by 17.95 and won by 17) 3A – 5-3 (only one within a touchdown) 4A – 8-0 (three within a touchdown) 5A – 7-1 (two within a touchdown & Christian Co. predicted to beat Warren Central by 6.05 and won by 6) 6A – 7-1 (5 within a touchdown & one loss had Bryan Station predicted to beat Henry Clay by one BUT Henry Clay actually won by one) 2009 first round (83-12) 1A – 15-1 (6 within a touchdown) 2A – 16-0 (7 within a touchdown & Danville predicted to beat Glasgow by 13.35 and won by 14) 3A – 14-2 (5 within a touchdown, Union Co. predicted to beat Adair Co. by 41.06 and won by 41, & Breathitt Co. predicted to beat Wayne Co. by 25.35 and win by 26) 4A – 11-4 (5 within a touchdown) 5A – 12-4 (3 within a touchdown and Owensboro predicted to beat Grayson Co. by 27.8 and won by 28) 6A – 15-1 (5 within a touchdown, Henderson Co. predicted to beat Central Hardin by 14.2 and won by 14, & duPont Manual predicted to beat Conner by 10.2 and won by 11)

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I won't be able to watch any high school games this week since I'm working the GLVC men's and women's soccer tournament semifinals...this is the first year that one school has ever hosted both semifinals (NKU is the #2 men's seed and is hosting cause the #1 team was eliminated last week while the women's team is the #1 seed). The first game is a women's semifinal at noon, then a men's semifinal at 2:30 p.m., then NKU's women play at 5 p.m. and finally the NKU men's team plays at 7:30 p.m. I say all of this cause I'm the person down on the field that tracks substitutions and will be out in the cold from about 11:45 a.m. until at least 9:30 p.m. barring any mayches going into overtime or PKs which would make it an even longer day. So about 10 hours in the cold working four college soccer matches isn't gonna be fun...the only concession to it all is that I'm paid hourly instead of by the game...lol.

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Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 6A entirely and the HRS predictions: 123.40 Trinity (Louisville) 107.90 Ryle 105.35 St. Xavier 105.30 Simon Kenton 101.75 Ballard 97.40 Male 96.70 Henry Clay 95.70 DuPont Manual 93.35 Eastern 93.10 Scott County 90.50 Seneca 90.15 Henderson County 88.10 Pleasure Ridge Park 82.40 North Hardin 82.35 Campbell County 81.40 Conner 81.20 George Rogers Clark 81.10 Meade County 77.85 Nelson County 77.55 Butler 77.25 Lafayette 75.20 Fern Creek 74.75 Tates Creek 74.70 Central Hardin 68.75 Graves County 66.00 Bryan Station 62.50 Madison Central 59.55 Marshall County 58.95 Paul L. Dunbar 58.70 Apollo 54.95 Southern Region One (3) Marshall County at (2) Fern Creek – FC by 21.65 (4) Apollo at (1) Male – H by 44.7 (3) Southern at (2) Graves County – GC by 19.8 Region Two (4) Paul Dunbar at (1) Meade County – MC by 28.15 (3) North Hardin at (2) Lafayette – LHS by 0.85 (4) Nelson County at (1) Scott County – SC by 21.25 (3) Bryan Station at (2) Central Hardin – CH by 14.7 Region Three (4) Seneca at (1) St. Xavier – X by 20.85 (3) Butler at (2) Ballard – Ballard by 30.2 (4) Pleasure Ridge Park at (1) Trinity – T by 41.3 (3) Eastern at (2) Manual – M by 8.35 Region Four (4) Madison Central at (1) Ryle – LAR by 51.4 (3) Campbell County at (2) George Rogers Clark – GRC by 4.85 (4) Conner at (1) Henry Clay – HC by 21.3 (3) Tates Creek at (1) Simon Kenton – SK by 36.55

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 5A entirely and the HRS predictions: 111.50 Highlands 103.30 Bowling Green 97.95 Dixie Heights 97.75 Christian County 97.75 John Hardin 95.10 Covington Catholic 94.05 Warren Central 93.55 Johnson Central 86.70 Pulaski County 84.65 Owensboro 81.80 Harlan County 81.50 Ashland Blazer 81.15 Grayson County 79.80 Oldham County 78.55 Madisonville-North Hopkins 74.80 Southwestern 74.80 Whitley County 73.80 Jeffersontown 73.60 Anderson County 73.05 Clay County 69.30 South Oldham 68.10 Doss 65.20 Montgomery County 63.85 Bullitt Central 62.50 Perry County Central 59.10 Scott 57.40 Lincoln County 57.35 Mercer County 54.70 Woodford County 49.50 Barren County 45.70 Ohio County 37.20 Waggener Region One (4) Barren County at (1) Christian County – CC by 48.25 (3) Madisonville at (2) Bowling Green – BG by 30.75 (4) Ohio County at (1) Warren Central – WC by 54.35 (3) Grayson County at (2) Owensboro – OHS by 9.5 Region Two (4) Jeffersontown at (1) John Hardin – JH by 29.95 (3) Doss at (2) Oldham County – OC by 17.7 (4) Waggener at (1) Anderson County – AC by 42.4 (3) South Oldham at (2) Bullitt Central – BC by 0.55 Region Three (4) Woodford County at (1) Highlands – HHS by 62.8 (3) Dixie Heights at (2) Montgomery County – DH by 26.75 (4) Scott at (1) Johnson Central – JC by 40.45 (3) Ashland Blazer at (2) Covington Catholic – CCH by 19.6 Region Four (4) Perry County Central at (1) Pulaski County – Pulaski by 30.2 (3) Lincoln County at (2) Clay County – CC by 21.65 (4) Mercer County at (1) Harlan County – HC by 30.45 (3) Whitley Co. at (2) Southwestern – SW by 6

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 4A entirely and the HRS predictions: 105.05 Bell County 104.60 Boyle County 100.80 Lone Oak 89.05 Allen County-Scottsville 89.05 Collins 87.90 Holmes 84.70 Lexington Catholic 84.65 Knox Central 80.00 Western 79.30 Franklin-Simpson 76.15 Marion County 75.45 East Jessamine 74.00 Lawrence County 73.10 North Bullitt 72.55 Rowan County 72.00 West Jessamine 68.40 Russell County 66.30 Franklin County 65.05 Fairdale 63.45 Greenup County 61.45 Rockcastle County 57.95 LaRue County 57.00 Hopkins County Central 55.05 Harrison County 51.85 Valley 49.50 Calloway County 46.30 Warren East 34.60 Bourbon County 33.65 Madison Southern 30.55 Boyd County 26.15 Breckinridge County Region One (4) Warren East at (1) Lone Oak – LO by 60.5 (3) Calloway County at (2) Franklin-Simpson – F-S by 35.8 (3) Russell County at (2) Hopkins Co. Central – RC by 5.4 Region Two (4) LaRue County at (1) Western – WHS by 28.05 (3) Valley at (2) North Bullitt – NB by 27.25 (4) Breckinridge Co. at (1) Collins – MLC by 68.9 (3) Marion County at (2) Fairdale – MC by 5.1 Region Three (4) West Jessamine at (1) Holmes – HHS by 21.9 (3) Harrison County at (2) Lexington Catholic – LC by 35.65 (4) Bourbon County at (1) Boyle County – Boyle by 76 (3) East Jessamine at (2) Franklin County – EJ by 3.15 Region Four (4) Boyd County at (1) Bell County – Bell by 80.5 (3) Rockcastle County at (2) Lawrence County – LC by 18.55 (4) Madison Southern at (1) Rowan County – RC by 44.9 (3) Greenup County at (2) Knox Central – KC by 27.2

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 3A entirely and the HRS predictions: 89.75 Somerset 83.35 Paducah Tilghman 77.50 Central 76.75 Mason County 76.25 Union County 74.25 Belfry 69.85 Sheldon Clark 68.55 Pike County Central 63.00 Breathitt County 60.80 Elizabethtown 60.75 North Oldham 57.90 Russellville 57.90 West Carter 55.95 Edmonson County 52.90 Russell 52.90 Henry County 52.05 Moore 51.80 Estill County 48.70 Wayne County 48.50 Garrard County 46.75 Casey County 43.45 Western Hills 42.90 Spencer County 38.60 Butler County 36.75 Powell County 32.25 East Ridge 31.90 Webster County 29.05 Hart County 26.35 Fleming County 25.25 Magoffin County 20.00 McLean County Region One (4) Butler County at (1) Paducah Tilghman – PT by 50.75 (3) Webster County at (2) Edmonson County – EC by 30.05 (4) McLean County at (1) Russellville – RHS by 43.9 (3) Hart County at (2) Union County – UC by 53.2 Region Two (4) Spencer County at (1) Central – CHS by 40.6 (3) Moore at (2) Henry County – HC by 6.85 (3) Western Hills at (2) Elizabethtown – Etown by 23.35 Region Three (4) Magoffin County at (1) Somerset – SHS by 70.5 (3) Garrard County at (2) Estill County – EC by 9.3 (4) Wayne County at (1) Breathitt County – BC by 20.3 (3) Powell County at (2) Casey County – CC by 16 Region Four (4) East Ridge at (1) Mason County – MC by 50.5 (3) West Carter at (2) Belfry – BHS by 22.35 (4) Fleming County at (1) Sheldon Clark – SC by 49.5 (3) Pike County Central at (2) Russell – PCC by 9.65

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 2A entirely and the HRS predictions: 92.45 Newport Central Catholic 86.60 Danville 80.15 Murray 80.05 Owensboro Catholic 77.40 Christian Academy-Louisville 77.40 Holy Cross (Covington) 77.25 Green County 76.80 DeSales 76.65 Corbin 76.20 Fort Campbell 73.65 Glasgow 69.55 Prestonsburg 68.75 Monroe County 68.75 Washington County 65.70 Middlesboro 65.45 Caldwell County 63.85 Hancock County 57.95 Newport 54.85 Trigg County 50.40 Fort Knox 50.20 Bardstown 43.50 Reidland 39.80 Lloyd Memorial 38.00 Carroll County 36.75 Shelby Valley 30.50 Owen County 30.50 Morgan County 28.05 Leslie County 26.00 Todd County Central 21.65 Bath County 20.45 Metcalfe County 2.90 Knott County Central Region One (4) Todd County Central at (1) Murray – MHS by 60.15 (3) Trigg County at (2) Fort Campbell – FC by 27.35 (4) Reidland at (1) Owensboro Catholic – OC by 42.55 (3) Hancock County at (2) Caldwell County – CC by 7.6 Region Two (4) Fort Knox at (1) Glasgow – GHS by 29.25 (3) Monroe County at (2) Washington County – WC by 6 (4) Metcalfe County at (1) Danville – DHS by 72.15 (3) Bardstown at (2) Green County – GC by 33.05 Region Three (4) Lloyd Memorial at (1) DeSales – DHS by 43 (3) Carroll County at (2) Covington Holy Cross – HC by 45.4 (4) Owen County at (1) Newport Central Catholic – NCC by 67.95 (3) Newport at (2) Christian Academy-Lou. – CAL by 25.45 Region Four (4) Knott County Central at (1) Prestonsburg – Pburg by 72.65 (3) Morgan County at (2) Middlesboro – MHS by 41.2 (4) Bath County at (1) Corbin – CHS by 61 (3) Leslie County at (2) Shelby Valley – SV by 14.7

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 1A entirely and the HRS predictions: 92.70 Mayfield 83.90 Beechwood 80.70 Holy Cross (Louisville) 77.40 Hazard 70.90 Lexington Christian 67.80 Crittenden County 64.35 Frankfort 63.30 Fairview 56.40 Kentucky Country Day 55.95 Ballard Memorial 55.65 Raceland 54.50 Pikeville 52.20 Bethlehem 48.00 Walton-Verona 47.25 Williamsburg 45.80 Bellevue 45.45 Pineville 43.90 Campbellsville 42.95 Nicholas County 41.45 Harlan 38.25 Bishop Brossart 33.65 Lynn Camp 29.35 Betsy Layne 28.95 Allen Central 24.10 Eminence 23.95 Fulton County 21.90 Caverna 16.65 Berea 16.10 Paintsville 13.30 Gallatin County 10.90 Bracken County 0.55 Jenkins Region One (4) Caverna at (1) Mayfield – MHS by 76.8 (3) Ballard Memorial at (2) KCD – KCD by 6.45 (4) Fulton County at (1) Lou. Holy Cross – HC by 62.75 (3) Bethlehem at (2) Crittenden County – CC by 21.6 Region Two (4) Gallatin County at (1) Beechwood – BHS by 76.6 (3) Bellevue at (2) Eminence – BHS by 15.7 (4) Bishop Brossart at (1) Frankfort – FHS by 32.1 (3) Bracken County at (2) Walton-Verona – W-V by 43.1 Region Three (4) Berea at (1) Lexington Christian – LCA by 59.25 (3) Raceland at (2) Campbellsville – RHS by 5.75 (4) Nicholas County at (1) Williamsburg – WHS by 10.3 (3) Lynn Camp at (2) Fairview – FHS by 35.65 Region Four (4) Allen Central at (1) Hazard – HHS by 54.45 (3) Pineville at (2) Betsy Layne – PHS by 10.1 (4) Jenkins at (1) Pikeville – PHS by 59.95 (3) Paintsville at (2) Harlan – HHS by 31.35

Can anyone familiar with the Courier-Journal website point me in the direction of the Litkenhous Ratings? I'm trying to put together my rating system predictions as I've done in the past several years and I need to Lit Ratings to complete it. For some reason I can not find them on the CJ high school sports site...thanks in advance for any help!

This is how I think these schools will end up once the season is over.

It doesn't matter if some like it or some don't, music should NEVER be played during either team's possession. Once the referee blows the whistle for a series to start, ALL music should not be played whether it be over the sound system or by the band. And has been said above, the PA announcer is someone who should NOT be trying to be the local play-by-play or color commentator...that is what the rdio/tv personalities are for...this is one of the main things that I don't miss about high school athletics.

I would love nothing more than to see Henry Clay play Assumption in the finals but if they're going to struggle with Lone Oak, I don't know if they'll come close to beating Mercy in the semifinals...I would still have my fingers crossed for the Lady Devils and Coach Grupe though.

There is a correct way to act in a pressbox and there is this way to call a game. It doesn't matter if its the home team, the visiting team, or a team playing at a neutral site...you just don't act that way. Yeah you can somewhat get loud but there are still pressbox rules against loud cheering no matter who it is.