Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 6A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

123.40 Trinity (Louisville)

107.90 Ryle

105.35 St. Xavier

105.30 Simon Kenton

101.75 Ballard

97.40 Male

96.70 Henry Clay

95.70 DuPont Manual

93.35 Eastern

93.10 Scott County

90.50 Seneca

90.15 Henderson County

88.10 Pleasure Ridge Park

82.40 North Hardin

82.35 Campbell County

81.40 Conner

81.20 George Rogers Clark

81.10 Meade County

77.85 Nelson County

77.55 Butler

77.25 Lafayette

75.20 Fern Creek

74.75 Tates Creek

74.70 Central Hardin

68.75 Graves County

66.00 Bryan Station

62.50 Madison Central

59.55 Marshall County

58.95 Paul L. Dunbar

58.70 Apollo

54.95 Southern

 

 

 

Region One

(3) Marshall County at (2) Fern Creek – FC by 21.65

(4) Apollo at (1) Male – H by 44.7

(3) Southern at (2) Graves County – GC by 19.8

Region Two

(4) Paul Dunbar at (1) Meade County – MC by 28.15

(3) North Hardin at (2) Lafayette – LHS by 0.85

(4) Nelson County at (1) Scott County – SC by 21.25

(3) Bryan Station at (2) Central Hardin – CH by 14.7

Region Three

(4) Seneca at (1) St. Xavier – X by 20.85

(3) Butler at (2) Ballard – Ballard by 30.2

(4) Pleasure Ridge Park at (1) Trinity – T by 41.3

(3) Eastern at (2) Manual – M by 8.35

Region Four

(4) Madison Central at (1) Ryle – LAR by 51.4

(3) Campbell County at (2) George Rogers Clark – GRC by 4.85

(4) Conner at (1) Henry Clay – HC by 21.3

(3) Tates Creek at (1) Simon Kenton – SK by 36.55

ttt

WOW! Nice work, thanks.

I placed all games into the simulator at nationalsportsrankings.com and each game is based on if the teams played 25 times averaged out, here it is:

1st Round

Fern Creek-24

Marshall Co.-14

 

Male-39

Apollo-9

 

Graves Co.-26

Southern-17

 

Meade Co.-31

Dunbar-11

 

Lafayette-25

N. Hardin-15

 

Scott Co.-18

Nelson Co.-22

 

Central Hardin-17

Bryan Station-12

 

St.X-32

Seneca-16

 

Ballard-31

Butler-14

 

Trinity-43

PRP-6

 

Manual-21

Eastern-19

 

Ryle-43

Madison-7

 

GRC-22

Campbell Co-25

 

Henry Clay-27

Conner-14

 

SK-37

TC-12

2nd Round

 

Henderson C0-24

Fern Creek-16

 

Male-40

Graves Co-8

 

Meade Co-17

Lafayette-22

 

Nelson Co-26

C. Hardin-17

 

St. X-24

Ballard-15

 

Trinity-31

Manual-14

 

Ryle-33

Campbell Co-11

 

Henry Clay-19

SK-25

3rd Round

 

Henderson Co-17

Male-27

 

Lafayette-18

Nelson Co-25

 

St. X-16

Trinity-23

 

Ryle-18

SK-24

SEMIS

 

Male-26

Nelson Co-16

 

Trinity-24

SK-15

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

 

Male-15

Trinity-26

I just checked out the UKSK#1 Fan web site and he has SK beating Trinity 38-24 in the semis and then noone showed up to play the Neers in Bowling Green.

ttt