Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2010 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 3A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

89.75 Somerset

83.35 Paducah Tilghman

77.50 Central

76.75 Mason County

76.25 Union County

74.25 Belfry

69.85 Sheldon Clark

68.55 Pike County Central

63.00 Breathitt County

60.80 Elizabethtown

60.75 North Oldham

57.90 Russellville

57.90 West Carter

55.95 Edmonson County

52.90 Russell

52.90 Henry County

52.05 Moore

51.80 Estill County

48.70 Wayne County

48.50 Garrard County

46.75 Casey County

43.45 Western Hills

42.90 Spencer County

38.60 Butler County

36.75 Powell County

32.25 East Ridge

31.90 Webster County

29.05 Hart County

26.35 Fleming County

25.25 Magoffin County

20.00 McLean County

 

 

 

Region One

(4) Butler County at (1) Paducah Tilghman – PT by 50.75

(3) Webster County at (2) Edmonson County – EC by 30.05

(4) McLean County at (1) Russellville – RHS by 43.9

(3) Hart County at (2) Union County – UC by 53.2

Region Two

(4) Spencer County at (1) Central – CHS by 40.6

(3) Moore at (2) Henry County – HC by 6.85

(3) Western Hills at (2) Elizabethtown – Etown by 23.35

Region Three

(4) Magoffin County at (1) Somerset – SHS by 70.5

(3) Garrard County at (2) Estill County – EC by 9.3

(4) Wayne County at (1) Breathitt County – BC by 20.3

(3) Powell County at (2) Casey County – CC by 16

Region Four

(4) East Ridge at (1) Mason County – MC by 50.5

(3) West Carter at (2) Belfry – BHS by 22.35

(4) Fleming County at (1) Sheldon Clark – SC by 49.5

(3) Pike County Central at (2) Russell – PCC by 9.65

Edited November 2, 201015 yr by mcpapa

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