24Rocks

One of the metrics I find useful for making predictions is team defense. Usually, it indicates good coaching. And, most of the time a team has to have a decent number of athletes to play consistently good defense. Many of the predictions on this thread are based on which players can score, and that's important, but I'd like to look at things from a defensive standpoint. Here are the team defensive rankings for this year: Massey DCA - 7 Mercer - 14. Lincoln - 16. PC - 45. West Jessamine - 49 KHSAA DCA - 2 Mercer - 3. West Jessamine - 5. Lincoln - 7. Somerset - 26. PC - 31 Each of the teams in these rankings has good coaching. DCA, Mercer, and PC all took big hits in terms of graduation losses. Of these teams DCA has the best individual player in Ateny. Lincoln and Somerset have the biggest number of solid, experienced players returning. Now, let's look at teams that have been mentioned whose defense is not as good. Based on the Massey rankings: Wayne County - 70. Southwestern - 98. Rockcastle - 109. McCreary - 155 Can a team like Rockcastle lose a solid player like Connor Hunt and move from an 8 win season and a mediocre defense to challenge for the regional championship even if they get a proven offensive threat like Craig? It's possible but not that likely. I think it's the same situation with McCreary. As far as predictions go I'd say we'll still see those same teams in the top next year with the possibility that a Wayne or a Southwestern could improve enough on defense to compete with them. Or, in the case of a team like Mercer, losing Ellis and Preston might be too big of a hit and they struggle to score. It's a given that West Jessamine, Lincoln, and Somerset all have a good number of quality players returning and they play good defense so those 3 would probably be the favorites. Plus, they have good coaching. If DCA, Mercer, and PC can replace their seniors they'll still be in the hunt.

If there are as many transfers this year as there were last there's no telling what things will look like once the season rolls around. Plus, you've got some coaches going into their second year (DCA, Wayne, West Jessamine) and a brand new coach at Boyle. I played in a program that got a new coach my sophomore year and it took awhile to completely get comfortable with his system. Teams like Pulaski, Somerset, and Lincoln have a bit of an advantage in that aspect.

He's got a lot of potential but they'll really miss Paige. They'll have to figure out some way to get some more offense without him there.

That's a big step up from Clara Morrow field.

I put a few numbers together based on how the top 12 teams (based on RPI) finished. My categorization of "top seniors lost" was simply if the player was in the top 5 of scoring for his team. Obviously, there's a huge difference between being a team leader like Trevor Ellis or Titus Boyd and being #5 on their team with a 3 ppg average but I considered that categorization to reflect that they played a lot and contributed. DCA (RPI - .68456). Region Losses - 0 Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back Mercer (RPI - .58593). Region Losses - 3 Lose 3 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - gone Pulaski (RPI - .56614). Region Losses - 6 Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - back Boyle (RPI - .56566). Region Losses - 6 Lose 3 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - back McCreary (RPI - .56108). Region Losses - 8 Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back Lincoln (RPI - .55875). Region Losses - 6 Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back West Jessamine (RPI - .54740). Region Losses - 8 Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back Wayne County (RPI - .54186). Region Losses - 7 Lose 0 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back Southwestern (RPI - .53976). Region Losses - 6 Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - gone SCS (RPI - .52055). Region Losses - 8 Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back Garrard (RPI - .51697). Region Losses - 12 Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - back Somerset (RPI - .51621). Region Losses - 10 Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - gone

He is losing his two best players in Ellis and Preston. There's less than 20 ppg of scoring coming back. Maybe he figures that if he is going to leave now would be a good time. But, I'm not sure that Boyle would be better than Mercer. There have been some good players come through that program.

The conversation has veered off the rails into whether or not to lift during the season. I believe in lifting during the season BUT it's different than what football off season lifting looks like. It's definitely different from what I've seen coming from Boyle in their videos. That's not the point. The point I'm making, and it's my opinion, agree or disagree, is that it should be 100% up to the basketball coach during basketball season. If he wants to lift 5x per week that's his decision. And, there should be no pressure, implied or stated, from any other program to do anything else. I'm not claiming the the Boyle football coaches pressure the dual sport athletes. In a program as successful as theirs the kids can pressure themselves. They can get it into their head that they'll get behind or lose their starting job if they don't train for football during basketball season. Some can even go to the extreme of quitting basketball altogether because they think it will hurt their football prospects.

I agree but I'd say that for me personally it would be half the problem. The dominance of the football program would be a problem for me. It's not that I'd feel threatened by their success, it's just that when it's basketball season it's basketball and I would not agree for them to come in before school for weightlifting and conditioning, regardless of whether it was called "voluntary" or not. Whether or not it hurts the basketball players has been beaten to death on this board and I don't want to open a can of worms. I've seen video of their off season football training and as far as I'm concerned I wouldn't want my basketball players doing it, especially during the season.

As of today there are only 3 jobs listed for Boyle County. 1 in elementary (at Junction City) and 2 in Special Ed (Learning Behavior Disorders).

Thanks for the information. I remember back in my day the grass would be worn down in the middle of the field and between freezing, thawing, getting wet and drying out, the top layer of dirt could get as hard as concrete. That was just from games (middle school, JV, and high school) and band practice. There was a separate field for football practice. I'd say turf would be a lot better in that aspect late in the season.

What is the average cost to install a turf field?

I would think that it would be wise for Hagen to think long and hard about taking the Boyle job if it was offered. At his age the best long term move might be to find an assistant coaching job in college under a really well respected head coach. Once he's in that network he could probably land a head coaching job in college in a few years and there's no comparison between the money he'd make in college compared to high school. I have a feeling that we'll see just about every college program hire shooting coaches just like they did strength coaches when they finally realized that strength training is important. Many of the NBA teams have shooting coaches and I predict the college programs will catch on. With the way Hagen shot the ball in high school and college (he average over 40% from three point range in college his entire 4 years) IF he could teach that skill to his players he'd be a prime candidate to be a shooting coach at a big time program.

How much experience does he have?

I've been checking the Massey Ratings to see where everyone was ranked at the end of the season and it shows they haven't been updated since March 22. Is this just me or is anyone else having this problem? The college composites haven't been updated in awhile as well when I log in.

They did at one time but I’m not sure about the current situation. The middle school girls seem to gravitate toward volleyball instead of basketball at that school. Plus, there just aren’t that many girls in the entire school. He had some 8th graders practicing and sitting on the bench for the varsity team. I’m not sure about the Salt River question.

I will add that I had my life made miserable in my first teaching/coaching job by a school board member who was a parent of one of my players. A quick suggestion to all of you young people going into coaching, do your homework and think very carefully if you have parents of your players in positions of power. They may be sane and it might work out just fine, just be careful.

I've experienced both. In one case I didn't meet the Principal until after I'd been hired by the Superintendent. In another case I don't think I ever did meet the Superintendent, I was hired as a long term sub first and then moved to full time by the Principal.

I played for a former UK player whose only positive attribute was that he’d played at UK. He was a complete disaster and should have been fired midway through the season. I would agree that someone with a proven record would be better.

Someone has to teach driver’s ed and supervise the weight room and study hall….those jobs are probably already earmarked for the football coaches.

"Due to a difference in the direction of the school". I'd really like to know what that means.

Thanks. That's really interesting and not what I expected. I did notice the different looks to their shots when they were warming up the other night but I thought their better shooters looked pretty similar. Julian Miles has really good form IMHO. One thing that probably is attributable to his coaching is their shot selection. They don't hesitate to pull the trigger but I noticed that when they do they're in good position and on balance. Also, they make the extra pass to get a teammate a better shot.

I was very impressed in the state tournament by the way South Oldham shoots the ball. Their top 4 volume shooters are all over 40% on the year from 3 point range and they shoot a lot of them. I'm a firm believer that shooters are made and not born. It obviously takes a lot of hard work but it also takes an attention to detail and a focus on proper form. I've always thought that the best approach would be to start in middle school by teaching and insisting on good form but I'm not aware of that many programs who do that. Many of them take the "great shooters are born" approach and let them figure it out on their own. Is there anything that those of you who are familiar with Coach Simpson and his program can share? Thanks in advance.

Wuchterl was 10/13 from the three point line according to the box score. that's tough to beat.

I would add that very few teams would survive an onslaught of 3 point shooting like SO demonstrated in the 2nd quarter. DCA was up one at the end of the first, despite several turnovers, and then South Oldham proceeded to hit 8 for 11 (73%). Take away a couple of breakaways at the very end and the rest of the game was pretty much even. South Oldham had great ball movement and shooting and their defense was good as well. They are obviously a very well coached team. It would have taken a lot to beat them but that second quarter was what clinched the deal.

What is your issue with private schools?