The cycle continues as the curtain as set on another season in the 12th and we turn our attention to what is ahead. The region overall was down this year from top to bottom. Will we see another year in decline of talent or will it tilt the other way? The trend of transfers in the state suggests that the prospective rosters as they are now will not be nearly the same once the dust settles in October. It certainly had a huge impact on the 12th last year.

Will DCA be able to continue the construction of a dynasty? Will their defensive, methodical brand of basketball continue to be the dominant style in the region? Are Boyle and Danville finding themselves indefinite seats in the bottom of the district as DCA rises to the top with Lincoln right behind them and Garrard fighting for relevance?

Rockcastle County showed some real fight later in the year. Will we see them rise to the level of contender with the return of Walker Craig?

How are things in Wayne County? Will they have a quieter off-season this year? Can they contend for a regional title behind Kendall Phillips?

Is Pulaski County and Carson Fraley (in what feels like his 17th year of basketball) the biggest threat to take the title away from DCA? They lose their two leading scorers but return Zak Anderson and Seth Farmer alongside Fraley.

I am worried that the region isn't going to be much better talent wise but the parity that existed did give us one of the most competitive and memorable regional tournaments in recent history. I fully expect that parity to continue.

I would rank the top five as followed:

1.) Pulaski County

2.) Lincoln County

3.) West Jessamine

4.) McCreary County Central

5.) Southwestern

I would add Somerset to that list of teams to watch out for. They return Absear, Lewis, and Grundy. Also a fresh in Brock stevens who started the first half of the season last year. They might have the best returning nucleus in the region imo.

2 minutes ago, FlyPattern said:

I would rank the top five as followed:

1.) Pulaski County

2.) Lincoln County

3.) West Jessamine

4.) McCreary County Central

5.) Southwestern

No DCA or Somerset? 

1. DCA

2. Lincoln

3. West

4. Somerset

5. Rock

DCA hasn't lost a regular season region or district game in 2 years. I'd say they still the team to beat.

Not to mention they have the best player in the region (Ateny) returning along with two other starters. Domidion will replace Boyd at PG. He has major upside, and potential to be a top player in the region this year. 
 

However, coach Busick will have to do a better of adjusting strategies. His lack of adjusting last season should have gotten them beat in the region, and defitintely cost them a chance to make a run in the state. It was hard to watch at times!

 

If teams stay the same as they ended last season(which we know they won’t), my top 5 would look a little different. The top teams from last year all have major holes to fill. DCA has no one on that roster to fill the shoes of Boyd. Atteny now is alone on the back of the 3-2 and all be it a force to be reckoned with can be more of the focus of other teams game plan. Mercer has two huge holes to fill with lose of Ellis and Preston. They have some good kids returning though that didn’t see a lot of action because they had such a senior heavy and experienced team. Pulaski to me is a team that will struggle. Fraley is great and experienced but he has battled those knee issues and just looked like it hampered him tremendously in the region tournament. Outside shooting seemed to be their struggle this year and the best one they had is gone. While I wouldn’t count any of these three out they just have to rebuild/reload to get back to last year levels. 

My top 5 would look like this:

 

1 Lincoln. Baird and Robbins are a dynamic duo and their young big looked much improved in the region game. Jeff Jackson as always will build a team

2 Wayne. Kendall Phillips is the best player in the region and should be 12th region POY. Kid is smart and has done it year after year. Edwards is a tough PG that will lead them and they have some returning pieces around them. 
3 Southwestern. They return Hutchinson and Simpson and have experienced guard play now that they lacked last season. Younger Simpson will give them some added size as well. 

4 Somerset. Like someone said earlier they may have best nucleus returning. Absher is really good and Young is great at getting them all to buy in and play together. 

5 West. They return some good pieces and can move up from here if the big kid gets more consistent. Murphy is a good leader at PG and Thornton can shoot it but has to do so consistently. 
 

I think you put Mercer, PC and DCA in here for now in no particular order followed by Rock at this time. If Craig is healthy and back to his old self then Rock is a team that could move up quickly. 
 

The rest will have to get more help than the ones above to get in the mix. 

I put a few numbers together based on how the top 12 teams (based on RPI) finished.  My categorization of "top seniors lost" was simply if the player was in the top 5 of scoring for his team.  Obviously, there's a huge difference between being a team leader like Trevor Ellis or Titus Boyd and being #5 on their team with a 3 ppg average but I considered that categorization to reflect that they played a lot and contributed.  

DCA (RPI - .68456). Region Losses - 0

Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back

Mercer (RPI - .58593). Region Losses - 3

Lose 3 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - gone

Pulaski (RPI - .56614). Region Losses - 6

Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - back

Boyle (RPI - .56566). Region Losses - 6

Lose 3 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - back

McCreary (RPI - .56108). Region Losses - 8

Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back

Lincoln (RPI - .55875). Region Losses - 6

Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back

West Jessamine (RPI - .54740). Region Losses - 8

Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back

Wayne County (RPI - .54186). Region Losses - 7

Lose 0 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back

Southwestern (RPI - .53976). Region Losses - 6

Lose 1 top senior Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - gone

SCS (RPI - .52055). Region Losses - 8

Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - back

Garrard (RPI - .51697). Region Losses - 12

Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - gone Top Rebounder - back

Somerset (RPI - .51621). Region Losses - 10

Lose 2 top seniors Top scorer - back Top Rebounder - gone

 

Mccreary will win the 48th district.  Mark it down. 

Higgonbotham from McCreay avg. 20 and 10 last year. 

47th will be strongest district.  Pulaski, Somerset and Rock will all be in top 10.  

I can't wait to watch Walker Craig next year, I think he will win 12th region POY if he stays healthy. 

If Danville big is healthy they could make a run in 45th.  High on his potential. 

26 minutes ago, LethalPG said:

If Danville big is healthy they could make a run in 45th.  High on his potential. 

He's got a lot of potential but they'll really miss Paige.  They'll have to figure out some way to get some more offense without him there.  

If there are as many transfers this year as there were last there's no telling what things will look like once the season rolls around.  Plus, you've got some coaches going into their second year (DCA, Wayne, West Jessamine) and a brand new coach at Boyle.  I played in a program that got a new coach my sophomore year and it took awhile to completely get comfortable with his system.  Teams like Pulaski, Somerset, and Lincoln have a bit of an advantage in that aspect.